Dr Siti Fatimah Ismail
@um.edu.my
University of Malaya
EDUCATION
PhD in Econometrics
RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS
Economics and Econometrics, Modeling and Simulation, Statistics and Probability, General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
FUTURE PROJECTS
Assessing the Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Stabilizing the Malaysian Economy: A Macroeconometric Modeling Approach
This study investigates the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in stabilizing the Malaysian economy through advanced macroeconometric modeling. While both policy instruments have historically played crucial roles in managing growth, inflation, and employment, evidence on their comparative impact remains inconclusive. Drawing on quarterly data from 1980–2025, the research employs ARDL/ECM, and simulation techniques to analyze short- and long-run effects of policy shocks, including responses under crisis versus stable growth conditions. By assessing the dynamic interactions of interest rates, money supply, exchange rate interventions, government spending, taxation, and fiscal deficits, the study provides empirical insights into which policy is more effective under varying macroeconomic environments. Expected outcomes include evidence-based recommendations for optimal policy coordination between Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry
Applications Invited
1. Grant 2. PhD Student
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in ASEAN: A Panel Macroeconometric Approach
Macroeconomic policy remains at the center of debates on sustainable growth and stability. For ASEAN countries, monetary and fiscal policies play critical roles in navigating global shocks, financial integration, and development challenges. Yet, little is known about their relative effectiveness across countries with varying economic structures. This project employs panel macroeconometric modeling (Panel VAR, GMM, and panel cointegration) using quarterly data for ASEAN economies (2000–2025) to systematically evaluate the comparative effectiveness of monetary versus fiscal policy. It will explore both short-run and long-run effects, examine cross-country heterogeneity, and simulate policy scenarios. Expected outcomes include evidence-based recommendations for optimal policy coordination between Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry of Finance, contributions to macroeconomic theory in emerging economies, and support for Malaysia’s long-term development agenda.
Applications Invited
1. Grant 2. PhD Student 3. Government Bodies
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Siti Fatimah Ismail and Siok Kun Sek
AIP Publishing
Siti Fatimah Ismail and Siok Kun Sek
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
In the economic theory, many arguments from the different school of thoughts have been raised to justify the efficiency of economic policy in the view of stabilization. For instance, the correlation between macroeconomic variables and economic performance is a contentious issue. In this paper, we carefully examine and compare the impacts of fiscal (government expenditure) versus monetary policy (broad money and real interest rate) on economic growth using nonlinear regression. In particular, the main objectives include (1) to model the nonlinear threshold effect of broad money in modelling the economic growth by considering the 1997 Asian financial crisis influences and (2) to compare the impacts of both policies on economic growth. The study is based on a panel of ASEAN5 countries for the period of 1995-2015. Panel threshold regression established by Hansen (1999) was employed. The results reported a single threshold effect of broad money on inflation before and after controlling the crisis on determining economic growth. Here we observed that monetary policy through real interest rate caused to lower GDP growth while broad money led to the trade-off between inflation and growth. When broad money is high (above the threshold value), it led to higher economic growth but was compensated with the trade-off cost of higher inflation. Also, the Asian financial crisis caused to the significant drop in economic growth in ASEAN5. Overall, the study reported inefficient fiscal policy and monetary policy in the case of ASEAN countries. Keywords: economic growth; monetary policy; fiscal policy; threshold effects
Siti Fatimah Ismail and Siok Kun Sek
AIP Publishing
Sayed Kushairi Sayed Nordin, Khairul Fadzli Samat, Siti Fatimah Ismail, Khairum Hamzah, Bushra Abdul Halim, and Sek Siok Kun
AIP Publishing LLC
Sayed Kushairi Sayed Nordin, Khairul Fadzli Samat, Al Amin Mohamed Sultan, Bushra Abdul Halim, Siti Fatimah Ismail, and Nurul Wirdah Mafazi
AIP Publishing LLC
Syafiq Shamsudin, Siti Fatimah Ismail, Abdullah Al-Mamun, and Sayed Kushairi Bin Sayed Nordin
Canadian Center of Science and Education
GRANT DETAILS
1. Project Title: Modelling Agricultural
Growth for Malaysia’s Future
Grant: Research Acculturation Grant
Scheme (RAGS), Ministry of Education
Malaysia (Completed)
2. Project Title: Micro and Small
Enterprise Performance in Acquiring
Business Acumen: A Case Study of
Besut
Grant: GERIC Grant, Universiti
Malaysia Kelantan (Completed)
3. Project Title: The Nexus of Inflation-
Output and Efficiency in Monetary
Policy: A Comparative Analysis of
Advanced and Emerging Economies
Grant: Fundamental Research Grant
Scheme (FRGS)
RESEARCH OUTPUTS (PATENTS, SOFTWARE, PUBLICATIONS, PRODUCTS)
1. SOFTWARE- EVIEWS, STATA
2.
CONSULTANCY
1. Consultant, AI Teaching and Training Hospital for Lincoln University College
2. Independent Consultant, UKM Pakarunding – MTIB Project
INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE
1. Consulting- MTIB Project (Census on Timber Industry in Malaysia)
2. TIMEVEST SDN BHD - Spearhead business development initiatives with a strong focus on
project development, management, and strategic execution and students recruitment.