Modelling the value of space project ecologies through systems architecting Alessandro Paravano, Paolo Trucco Syscon 2026 the 20th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference Conference Proceedings, 2026 In the Space Economy, complex space projects are increasingly expected to generate long-term value that extends beyond traditional space stakeholders, reaching new terrestrial domains such as insurance, energy, transportation, and healthcare. While the space sector has decades of Systems Engineering experience in defining and validating project performance, existing methodologies remain insufficient for modeling and designing the value of complex space projects. We argue that this gap stems from a system-architectural failure: projects are conceived as closed systems rather than as nested systems within the broader project ecology (systems of systems). Our work addresses this shortcoming by 1) framing complex space projects as nested systems and 2) applying systems architecting to model the value created by space projects in their ecology. The empirical setting of the study is Copernicus, the European flagship Earth Observation programme. The research proceeds through three main stages. 1) Ecology Modeling - Based on secondary data, we mapped and modeled the Copernicus ecology architecture (entities and functions). 2) Value Perception Analysis - We conducted an assessment of value perception among the entities in Copernicus ecology, examining how different entities define and pursue value functions, and how end-users interpret and derive value from Copernicus outputs. Data were gathered through interviews with engineers and managers in the ecology, to perceived value misalignments and architectural bottlenecks. 3) Value Network Modeling - We developed a value network model, quantifying the flows of value among Copernicus ecology entities. The resulting value network model reveals how and why Copernicus’s value lies in its ecology. Findings indicate that Copernicus, as currently architected, does not fully satisfy the expected value functions of its intended end users, with value often being propagated to unintended or weakly connected domains. This misalignment reflects a lack of architectural coherence and systemic feedback mechanisms, underscoring the need for new frameworks for architectural design governance that integrate ecological considerations into project design. Our research advances the systems architecture and project management literature by demonstrating the relevance of broadening the level of analysis to the ecology (systems of systems) for designing next-generation projects.
Framing the dynamics of risk landscape amidst space economy trends Paolo Trucco, Alessandro Paravano, Giorgio Locatelli Acta Astronautica, 2026 Major Space Economy (SE) trends are pushing the space industry into an era of radical transformations. New missions, infrastructures and in-space activities are envisaged under deep technological and business uncertainties, with strong implications on how space organizations identify, assess and treat risks at different levels. Space organizations should enhance their risk management models and practices to cope with an evolving risk landscape. There are two main shortcomings in the extant body of knowledge about risk management in the space domain: (1) there are no robust approaches to the modelling and analysis of risks in space projects under the SE paradigm; (2) there is still a limited understanding of how the major technological, business and regulatory trends, taking place in the SE, influence the risk profile of new space missions and services. The aim of this study is to address these gaps by investigating how SE characteristics and trends influence the risk exposure of space organizations. The research design consists of four phases. First, leveraging a systematic literature review, a taxonomy of the 5 key trends (e.g., New organizational and operational models) characterizing the SE, divided into 25 sub-trends (e.g., platformization), and a taxonomy of 36 risks (e.g., De-orbit risk) targeting different space missions and businesses are developed. Second, rich Bow-Tie models for each risk are set, linking risk events, causes, consequences, and types of impacts. Third, interviews with space experts were run to validate the taxonomies and the Bow-Tie models. Fourth, by reviewing the extant literature and collecting experts’ opinions, possible positive or negative impacts of SE trends on space missions and business risks were analyzed and summarized in a “SE Trends-Risks” matrix. Results include 40 mechanisms of influence between SE sub-trends and space mission risks, 82 % are negative (i.e., lead to risk increase), and 18 % are positive (i.e., mitigate risks). Additionally, SE sub-trends worsen the business risk exposure through 59 identified mechanisms (64 %) and contribute to mitigating it through 33 mechanisms (36 %). The results may support space organization managers in planning new space missions or in innovating their business models. Space infrastructure insurers can leverage the same results to develop appropriate risk analysis methods. Future research can take the proposed taxonomy and framework as a reference for assessing risks of new system architectures and space-based services, or for investigating the effects of new regulations and governance models on the risk landscape in the SE. • We developed a novel framework to analyse space mission and business risks in light of New Space Economy trends. • We analyzed 25 New Space trends across 5 megatrends: regulations, actors, business models, commercialization, technology. • 3 trends drive >30% of mission and business risks. Key trends are: market liberalization, private firms, and space tourism. • Space commercialization has both positive and negative effects on mission and business risks, making its impact highly ambiguous. • Key mission risks most affected: in-orbit collision, technology adoption, and cyber risks.
Toward the LEO economy: A value assessment of commercial space stations for space and non-space users Alessandro Paravano, Brendan Rosseau, Giorgio Locatelli, Mathew Weinzierl, Paolo Trucco Acta Astronautica, 2025 In 2021, NASA established the Commercial LEO Development Program to encourage established and new private-sector actors to design Commercial Space Stations (CSS) that could replace the ISS. The response has been enthusiastic, and hopes are high that CSS will be powerful platforms for expanding the New Space Economy. But for these hopes to be realised, CSS should not only cover their costs, but generate attractive returns on investment and deliver sufficient value to potential users, such as pharmaceutical, energy, and manufacturing companies. Despite their relevance, the users’ perspective is under-investigated. To this end, our research answers, " How do potential users perceive the value of harnessing CSS in their business? ” We adopted an explorative mixed-method research approach and sensemake our results with the Value Theory. The research consists of four main phases. 1) Identification of the value streams and potential users based on the review of 114 documents. 2) Investigation of the CSS providers value espoused based on the content analysis of secondary data and 14 interviews with CSS providers. 3) Investigation of the CSS potential users value expected through the semantic webscraping of 46,319 CSS users’ websites and public documents triangulated with 6 interviews with CSS user managers. 4) Comparison of the CSS providers value espoused, and potential users value expected. Overall, we identified and compared 50 CSS value streams from the providers' and users' perspectives and developed an analytical framework to explain them. Our research endows CSS providers with users’ value perception and their geographical and sectorial distribution, helping the CSS providers to develop compelling value streams. Our findings offer CSS providers a clear and in-depth overview of the users value expected, who are looking for integrated as-a-service platforms and tight cost control. CSS users benefit from this study’s insights on potential CSS value streams and possible future applications of CSS in their business. • Users tend to hold optimistic value expectations about the CSS offerings • While CSS providers face challenges, a promising opportunity exists to meet better users' diverse and evolving needs • Our findings underscore the importance of aligning CSS design with explicit and well-defined user needs • CSS providers have room for improvements and enhancements to meet users' expectations fully • The emerging and uncertain nature of the CSS complex ecology challenges CSS providers in enacting value from CSS for users.
Drivers and Barriers in Shaping Resilience Projects: An Investigation in the Space Economy Alessandro Paravano, Giorgio Locatelli, Paolo Trucco IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2025 Projects as a temporal form of organising are crucial in enhancing society's and the environment's resilience. Despite the growing empirical relevance of this phenomenon, existing literature underinvestigated how these “resilience projects” are shaped to enhance society and the environment's resilience. To this end, our paper answers: “What are the drivers and barriers in shaping resilience projects?” We performed 38 interviews with managers of resilience projects developed in the European Space Economy, triangulated with secondary data. We leverage resilience projects and project-shaping theoretical bodies to sensemake our findings. We identified three drivers: 1) Thriving with the institutional context to cope with disturbances, 2) Unveiling collective knowledge to envision the future, 3) Future-proofing the intervention to embrace disturbances), and two barriers: 1) Navigating divergent time horizons, 2) Dealing with multiple futures, that affect the shaping of “resilience projects”. We identified 13 practices managers adopt to deal with such drivers and barriers. Our study extends the resilience project's theoretical knowledge by empirically demonstrating that holism, materiality, and prospectivity explain the shaping phase. We challenge mainstream project-shaping literature rooted in rationalist paradigms, highlighting the value of future-oriented practices. We extend the “projects of future” debate by introducing the barrier of dealing with multiple futures.
Planning Complex Projects for Long-term Value: the PACTO guide Alessandro Paravano, Giorgio Locatelli, Paolo Trucco IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2025 Planning complex projects with a long-term value perspective is crucial in today's rapidly evolving landscape. This is even more true in capital-intensive, high-tech sectors like space, quantum, cloud, and artificial intelligence, where complex projects create value for actors initially not even considered as stakeholders. Recent literature calls for planning projects taking a “value-based perspective”. Although intellectually compelling, this perspective lacks an actionable discussion guide for identifying key items in planning complex projects, hindering the operationalization of value-based complex project planning. To this end, we conducted 12 interviews with senior experts to gather insights on value-based complex project planning, using complex space projects as the empirical context. We developed a discussion guide, named “PACTO”, to support and facilitate value-based planning of complex projects. PACTO is structured around five key items: 1) Purpose – shifting from project outcomes to project value, 2) Actors – expanding from primary project stakeholders to a broader actor ecosystem, 3) Costs and benefits – transitioning from purely economic value to encompassing social and environmental value, 4) Time – moving from a single project phase perspective to a whole project lifecycle approach, and 5) Oversight – evolving from closed project governance to open project governance.
Investigating the influence of risk landscape dynamics on program governance: the Artemis case Paolo Trucco, Alessandro Paravano, Giorgio Locatelli Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2025 The Space Economy is reshaping the risk profile of space programs, redefining risk management approaches, and influencing space program governance dynamics. The extant body of knowledge is limited in explaining this phenomenon and presents three main shortcomings: (1) there is a limited understanding of the nexus between project governance and risk management approaches employed in the Space Economy. (2) The impact of differing mission and business risk profiles on the design and evolution of project governance is underinvestigated. (3) The dynamics of the risk landscape across different stages of the program are underinvestigated. Our key aim is to address these gaps by answering the following question: How do mission and business risk profiles influence the space program governance? We use the Artemis program as a case study, as it encompasses diverse governance architectures, varying risk landscape and allocation models, and projects developed in the Space Economy. The research consists of three phases. First, through secondary sources, we mapped the governance structure of Artemis and its constituent projects. Second, we categorised project risks using a taxonomy and framework previously developed and published by the authors. Finally, we analysed how risks influence program governance and how governance, in turn, is used to manage risks over time. We discussed the evolution of different governances and risk landscapes of the Artemis program and projects (comparing three paradigmatic and polar cases: SLS, PPE, and HLS). Our research provides valuable insights for managers of space organisations and officers of space agencies engaged in planning new space programs, showing how different program governance can be adopted to manage risks in the dynamic Space Economy landscape. Future research can build upon our results as a reference for evaluating the risks associated with new space programs and the most suitable program governance models over time.
Creating and Claiming Social Value by Joining the Governance of Science-Driven Capital Projects: An Investigation in the New Space Economy Alessandro Paravano, Giorgio Locatelli, Paolo Trucco IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2025 In a world facing grand challenges, companies urge to create and claim social value. This paper explains how organisations can achieve this by joining the governance of science-driven capital projects. The research addresses two significant gaps: the limited academic understanding of how science-driven capital projects create social value and the empirical lack of guidelines for companies to harness these projects. The empirical setting is the space sector, specifically the International Space Station (ISS) project. We adopted a two-stage research design. First, based on public documents and reports, we investigated the governance and social value of projects developed on the ISS, finding that social value is created through "In-Space" and "On-Earth” projects. Second, we performed a thematic analysis of 18 semi-structured interviews with senior managers, obtaining a roadmap to create and claim social value by joining the governance of the ISS. The paper contributes to the theory by explaining how science-driven capital projects create social value and their key governance elements. We show that space is becoming accessible to many non-space companies. We contribute to practice by clarifying the main governance elements of science-driven capital projects and providing a roadmap to create and claim social value by joining their governance.
Tackling Climate Change through commercial satellite-based projects: a taxonomy of the ESA Business Applications Program Gloc 2023 Iaf Global Space Conference on Climate Change, 2023
Unfolding program governance models in the transition towards the New Space Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2023
DEVELOPING NEW COMMERCIAL SPACE STATIONS: WHAT IS THE USERS EXPECTED VALUE? Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2023
ELICITING THE VALUE OF INNOVATION INTERMEDIARIES IN THE COPERNICUS ECOLOGY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2023
Strengthening the role of the space sector as a major driver of sustainable development: an investigation of the ESA Business Application programme Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2023
Assessing the Value of the Next Generation Space Projects: State-of-the-art and new perspectives Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2022
What is value in the New Space Economy? The end-users perspective Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2022
Emerging trends on satellite-based applications in health: a synoptic view Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, 2022
RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Modelling the value of space project ecologies through systems architecting A Paravano, P Trucco 2026 IEEE International Systems Conference (SysCon), 1-8 , 2026 2026
Expanding Research Opportunities for Project Management Researchers from Industry 5.0's Pillars A Romero-Torres, S Sankaran, C Marnewick, A Paravano, N Johnson, ... Project Management Journal 57 (2), 143-154 , 2026 2026 Citations: 2
A CO2-based real options model for assessing the impact of external events on nuclear power plants A Paravano, G Galeotti, A Neri, E Cagno, G Locatelli Nuclear Engineering and Design 448, 114692 , 2026 2026
Towards a Net-Zero Infrastructure: Proposal for an Enhanced LCA Model for Power Plants G Locatelli, A Paravano, A Neri, E Cagno Advances in Sustainable Energy Systems, Storage, and Conservation, 533-538 , 2026 2026
Towards a Net-Zero Infrastructure: A CO 2 -Based Taxonomy for Power Plants A Paravano, G Locatelli, A Neri, E Cagno Advances in Sustainable Energy Systems, Storage, and Conservation, 521-526 , 2026 2026
Will Industry 5.0 Open New Opportunities for Project Management Research? A Romero-Torres, S Sankaran, C Marnewick, A Paravano, N Johnson, ... 2026
Framing the dynamics of risk landscape amidst space economy trends P Trucco, A Paravano, G Locatelli Acta Astronautica 238, 332-340 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Impacts of Satellite-based Applications on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco 2025
Planning complex projects for value creation: a discussion guide for decision-makers A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco IEEE Engineering Management Review , 2025 2025
Cross-Fertilization in Commercial Space Station Ecosystems: A Catalyst for Innovation and Growth A Paravano, S Morrone, E Negrisolo, P Trucco Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC, 1-10 , 2025 2025
Engineering Management H Rogers, A Brem, S Panyam, P Gujar, G Paliwal, CL Pedersen, ... 2025
Drivers and barriers in shaping resilience projects: An investigation in the space economy A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
A CO2-based risk register for power plants A Paravano, A Spelgatti, F Ranelli, G Ferraro, A Neri, B Marchi, ... Available at SSRN 5286063 , 2025 2025
Toward the LEO economy: A value assessment of commercial space stations for space and non-space users A Paravano, B Rosseau, G Locatelli, M Weinzierl, P Trucco Acta Astronautica 228, 453-473 , 2025 2025 Citations: 12
Projects benefit realisation through sustainable innovation: drivers and challenges A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Management Decision , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
A comprehensive assessment of space R&D activities and their pervasiveness in other domains R Bernocchi, A Paravano, G Puliga, L Ponta, R Manzini, P Trucco INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL CONGRESS: IAC PROCEEDINGS, 1-15 , 2025 2025
Rethinking Financial Viability and Profitability of New Space Business Models and Projects: The Measurement of Intangible Value A Paravano, DS Fiocchi, N Fermetti, G Locatelli, P Trucco Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC, 329-337 , 2025 2025
Traditional Space Project Planning No Longer Works: A New Value-Based Theoretical Perspective A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC, 419-428 , 2025 2025
The Influence of Risk Landscape Dynamics on Program Governance: An Investigation on Artemis P Trucco, A Paravano, G Locatelli Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC, 288-301 , 2025 2025
Space innovation: l'innovazione della Space Economy nel mondo. Un'analisi brevettuale R Bernocchi, R Manzini, G Puliga, A Paravano, P Trucco, L Ponta Università Carlo Cattaneo-LIUC , 2025 2025
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
What is value in the New Space Economy? The end-users’ perspective on satellite data and solutions A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Acta Astronautica 210, 554-563 , 2023 2023 Citations: 46
The Impact of the New Space Economy on Sustainability: an overview A Paravano, M Patrizi, E Razzano, G Locatelli, F Feliciani, P Trucco Acta Astronautica 222, 162-173 , 2024 2024 Citations: 35
Yes, construction cost, time and scope are important, but there is more: a new action plan for infrastructure success G Locatelli, A Paravano, M Terenzi, P Trucco Management Decision 61 (13), 413-424 , 2023 2023 Citations: 31
Evolving governance in the space sector: From legacy space to new space models V Zancan, A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Acta Astronautica 225, 515-523 , 2024 2024 Citations: 23
End-Users Engagement for Enacting Value of Complex Projects: An Ecological Perspective A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Journal of Management in Engineering 40 (3), 05024003 , 2024 2024 Citations: 22
Toward the LEO economy: A value assessment of commercial space stations for space and non-space users A Paravano, B Rosseau, G Locatelli, M Weinzierl, P Trucco Acta Astronautica 228, 453-473 , 2025 2025 Citations: 12
Creating and claiming social value by joining the governance of science-driven capital projects: An investigation in the new space economy A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco IEEE Engineering Management Review , 2024 2024 Citations: 10
Drivers and barriers in shaping resilience projects: An investigation in the space economy A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
Projects benefit realisation through sustainable innovation: drivers and challenges A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Management Decision , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
Evolution of space programs governance A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Research handbook on the governance of projects, 411-428 , 2023 2023 Citations: 7
Expanding Research Opportunities for Project Management Researchers from Industry 5.0's Pillars A Romero-Torres, S Sankaran, C Marnewick, A Paravano, N Johnson, ... Project Management Journal 57 (2), 143-154 , 2026 2026 Citations: 2
Assessing the value of the next generation space projects: state-of-the-art and new perspectives A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco international astronautical congress proceedings, 1-30 , 2022 2022 Citations: 2
What is value in the New Space Economy? The end-users perspective A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco international astronautical congress proceedings, 1-34 , 2022 2022 Citations: 2
Framing the dynamics of risk landscape amidst space economy trends P Trucco, A Paravano, G Locatelli Acta Astronautica 238, 332-340 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Value mechanisms of satellite infrastructure in the “new space” economy A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco The Economics of Space Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1787/a729c640-en , 2024 2024 Citations: 1
Unfolding program governance models in the transition towards the New Space V Zancan, A Paravano, G Locatelli, P Trucco Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC 2023, 1-12 , 2023 2023 Citations: 1
Emerging trends on satellite-based applications in health: a synoptic view A Paravano, M Viterbo, P Trucco INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL CONGRESS: IAC PROCEEDINGS 2022, 1-10 , 2023 2023 Citations: 1
Modelling the value of space project ecologies through systems architecting A Paravano, P Trucco 2026 IEEE International Systems Conference (SysCon), 1-8 , 2026 2026
A CO2-based real options model for assessing the impact of external events on nuclear power plants A Paravano, G Galeotti, A Neri, E Cagno, G Locatelli Nuclear Engineering and Design 448, 114692 , 2026 2026
Towards a Net-Zero Infrastructure: Proposal for an Enhanced LCA Model for Power Plants G Locatelli, A Paravano, A Neri, E Cagno Advances in Sustainable Energy Systems, Storage, and Conservation, 533-538 , 2026 2026
