Modeling the Effect of Contractual Jobs on Unemployment With a Case Study of the Indian Agnipath Scheme A. K. Misra, Mamta Kumari, D. R. Sahu Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 2026 Contractual employment offers a relevant avenue for reducing the unemployment period within a labor force. Additionally, they offer valuable work experience to individuals, thereby enhancing their chances of securing regular employment. In this article, we introduce a four‐dimensional stage‐structured model, taking the service period of contractual jobs as a delay parameter. This approach enables us to examine the impact of contractual employment on the dynamics of unemployment. The proposed model is examined using the stability theory of delay differential equations, revealing that the system has a unique equilibrium that is globally stable under certain conditions for any value of the delay parameter. Furthermore, we analytically derive specific conditions under which an increase in the contractual job tenure either increases or decreases unemployment. Additionally, we validate our analytical findings numerically by using India's unemployment‐employment data and considering the employment opportunities provided under the Indian Agnipath scheme as an illustrative example of contractual employment.
Graph-theoretic approach and bifurcation analysis of skill acquisition and its effect on unemployment A. K. Misra, Ashutosh Upadhayay, Mamta Kumari, Jyoti Maurya Chaos, 2025 In developing countries, the informal sector plays a crucial role in employing unskilled labor workforce and contributes significantly to economic growth. Informal sector also facilitates skill acquisition, which enhances workers’ employability. This research work presents a dynamical model examining how skilled individuals in the informal sector influence unemployment dynamics. The model considers unemployed persons (both unskilled and skilled) and employed persons as dynamic variables. We analyze the feasibility and stability of all equilibria for the proposed dynamical system. A quantity R0, analogous to the basic reproductive ratio in epidemic models, is derived. We also demonstrate the existence of various bifurcations, including transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf, and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcations. Additionally, we apply a graph-theoretical approach to analyze unemployment patterns and connections within the labor workforce. This provides insights into the structure and dynamics of unemployment networks, complementing the dynamical system’s analysis. By combining dynamical system’s theory with graph theory, this study provides a comprehensive, multi-dimensional understanding of unemployment dynamics in developing economies characterized by substantial informal sector.
Modeling the Effect of Informal and Formal Jobs on the Dynamics of Unemployment A. K. Misra, Mamta Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 2024 The limited availability of formal jobs in developing nations always heightens the challenge for unemployed individuals in securing regular employment. Temporary employment in the informal sector serves as a source to fulfill their basic needs and enhance their employable skills. In this paper, we introduce a nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of informal and formal jobs on the dynamics of unemployment. For the model formulation, we categorize the labor force into three classes: unemployed, temporary employed, and regularly employed. A separate dynamical variable is used to represent the available temporary vacancies. It is assumed that temporarily employed individuals may transition into regular employment or self-employment. Furthermore, self-employed individuals contribute to generating temporary vacancies within the informal sector. The long-term behavior of the proposed system is analyzed using the qualitative theory of differential equations. A quantity known as the reproduction number of the system is derived, and it is found that the occurrence of multiple bifurcations for the proposed system is influenced by the value of this threshold quantity. Furthermore, we validate our analytical findings numerically. The findings of this study illustrate that an increase in the shifting rate of individuals from temporary to regular employment is not always effective in increasing the number of regularly employed individuals. Additionally, an increase in the transition of temporarily employed individuals into self-employment, coupled with their involvement in creating more temporary jobs, proves beneficial in reducing unemployment.
Dynamic Relationship between Informal Sector and Unemployment: A Mathematical Model A. K. Misra, Mamta Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 2024 Shortage of formal jobs, lack of skills in workforce and increasing human population proliferate the informal sector. This sector provides an opportunity to unskilled workers to gain skills along with earnings. In this paper, a deterministic nonlinear mathematical model is developed to study the effects of informal skill learning and job generation on unemployment. For the formulated system, feasibility of equilibria and their stability properties are discussed. A pertinent quantity ([Formula: see text]), known as the reproduction number, is calculated and it is shown that the formulated system undergoes transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcations on the variation of [Formula: see text]. The analytically obtained results are validated through numerical simulations. The results obtained from this study indicate that a substantial rate of job generation by self-employed individuals has a stabilizing effect on the system. Moreover, self-employment along with informal skill acquisition through engaging in informal work proves to be an effective measure in curbing the issue of unemployment in society.
MODELING THE EFFECTS OF TV AND SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISEMENTS ON DIABETES ARVIND KUMAR MISRA, MAMTA KUMARI Journal of Biological Systems, 2023 Diabetes is a widespread non-contagious disease, and a significant fraction of human population in the world is affected by it. Lifestyle changes including physical activities and a healthy diet can prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and its complications. In this paper, nonlinear mathematical models are proposed and analyzed to study the role of awareness in the prevention of diabetes. In model formulation, first it is assumed that the unaware people become aware through word-of-mouth communication only and adopt a preventive lifestyle to reduce the peril of diabetes. Subsequently, the proposed model is extended by incorporating the effect of social media and TV advertisements on diabetes awareness. An awareness generation number is obtained for the first model and it is found that the system exhibits transcritical bifurcation when this number crosses unity. Both models are analyzed qualitatively and a comparison of outcomes reveals that social media and TV ads are more effective in raising the level of awareness among individuals and helps to inhibit the risk of diabetes mellitus. The analytical results are verified through numerical simulation.
RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Modeling the impact of government efforts to increase informal jobs on the control of unemployment A. K. Misra, M Kumari Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 246, 333-355 , 2026 2026
Modeling the effect of contractual jobs on unemployment with a case study of the Indian Agnipath Scheme A. K. Misra, M Kumari, D. R. Sahu Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 1–29 , 2025 2025
Modeling the effect of fear-inducing awareness programs on smoking cessation J Maurya, M Kumari, AK Misra Journal of Computational Science 87, 102584 , 2025 2025
Graph-theoretic approach and bifurcation analysis of skill acquisition and its effect on unemployment A. K. Misra, A Upadhyay, M Kumari, J Maurya Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 35 (02), 023128 , 2025 2025 Citations: 4
Role of informal sector to combat unemployment in developing economy: A modeling study AK Misra, M Kumari, M Sajid Heliyon 10 (13) , 2024 2024 Citations: 15
Modeling the effect of informal and formal jobs on the dynamics of unemployment AK Misra, M Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 34 (09), 2450116 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Dynamic Relationship Between Informal Sector and Unemployment: A Mathematical Model AK Misra, M Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 34 (02), 2450018 , 2024 2024 Citations: 9
Modeling the Effects of TV and social media Advertisements on Diabetes AK Misra, M Kumari Journal of Biological Systems 31 (03), 1099-1124 , 2023 2023 Citations: 5
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Role of informal sector to combat unemployment in developing economy: A modeling study AK Misra, M Kumari, M Sajid Heliyon 10 (13) , 2024 2024 Citations: 15
Dynamic Relationship Between Informal Sector and Unemployment: A Mathematical Model AK Misra, M Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 34 (02), 2450018 , 2024 2024 Citations: 9
Modeling the Effects of TV and social media Advertisements on Diabetes AK Misra, M Kumari Journal of Biological Systems 31 (03), 1099-1124 , 2023 2023 Citations: 5
Graph-theoretic approach and bifurcation analysis of skill acquisition and its effect on unemployment A. K. Misra, A Upadhyay, M Kumari, J Maurya Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 35 (02), 023128 , 2025 2025 Citations: 4
Modeling the effect of informal and formal jobs on the dynamics of unemployment AK Misra, M Kumari International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 34 (09), 2450116 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Modeling the impact of government efforts to increase informal jobs on the control of unemployment A. K. Misra, M Kumari Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 246, 333-355 , 2026 2026
Modeling the effect of contractual jobs on unemployment with a case study of the Indian Agnipath Scheme A. K. Misra, M Kumari, D. R. Sahu Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 1–29 , 2025 2025
Modeling the effect of fear-inducing awareness programs on smoking cessation J Maurya, M Kumari, AK Misra Journal of Computational Science 87, 102584 , 2025 2025