DECLINE IN THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FERN SPECIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Daiana Cardoso Silva, João Carlos Pires-Oliveira, Francisco de Paula Athayde Filho, Joaquim Manoel da Silva Revista De Gestao Social E Ambiental, 2024 Purpose: The potential impact of climate change can lead to a reduction of up to 46% in the distribution of ferns within suitable habitats. In this study, we employed predictive models for species distribution to gain insights into the effects of climate change and edapotopographic factors on ferns, anticipating declines in forested environments particularly vulnerable. Material and methods: The research focused on the Neotropical region, from Mexico to Patagonia, including the Caribbean islands, with an emphasis on four fern species. Nineteen climatic and nine edapotopographic variables were used to develop models for both current and future scenarios under different climate conditions. This highlighted the importance of identifying areas at risk to implement effective conservation measures. Results and conclusion: The results illustrate the present distribution of species in the region, while projections for 2070 indicate substantial reductions in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. The study validates the hypothesis of a decline in forested areas, emphasizing the susceptibility of ferns. Furthermore, it highlights a notable loss of suitability for specific species, such as Lygodium venustum, underscoring the significance of ferns in ecosystems. The uncertainty analysis points out the robustness of the findings, emphasizing the imperative for mitigating carbon emissions and implementing conservation strategies to address forthcoming challenges in biodiversity preservation amid environmental changes.
SAMPLING BIAS WORSEN THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF NICHE MODELS João Carlos Pires-Oliveira, Hugo Bampi, Matheus Souza Lima-Ribeiro, Pedro Vasconcellos Eisenlohr Revista De Gestao Social E Ambiental, 2024 Purpose: Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) and Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) have become powerful tools in biology, biogeography, paleoecology and biodiversity conservation. ENM and SDM are evaluated using metrics that take into account the errors and successes of the models in predicting the presence or absence of species in certain locations. Here, we evaluate the effects of sampling bias on the relationship between evaluative metrics and the predictive capacity of models. Theoretical framework: ENM and SDM are powerful tools with extensive potential for use, but in order for them to produce useful results, they need to be constructed and validated appropriately. The occurrence data used in both processes may not have been collected randomly, which can lead to issues. An investigation into potential problems arising from the use of non-randomly collected occurrence data is necessary, as new issues may arise from simply filtering the data and reducing the number of occurrence records. Material and Methods: We use Virtual Species (VS) to evaluate the effect of sampling bias. Using VS is the most robust approach for this type of testing, as we know the entire VS distribution. Results and conclusion: Our results showed that sampling bias reduces the predictive capacity of the ENM and SDM models. We did not find a consistent pattern of the effect of sampling bias on the relationship between evaluation metrics and the predictive capacity of models. The effect size varied between different bias intensities. We emphasize that reducing the strength of the bias is one of the most efficient ways to minimize this problem.
Use of a geospatial tool to predict the distribution of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and some native freshwater gastropods found in Brazil Darlesson Geovani dos Santos Sousa, João Carlos Pires-Oliveira, Raimundo Leoberto Torres de Sousa, Simone Mousinho Freire, Hudson Alves Pinto Biota Neotropica, 2024 One of the most common environmental impacts that has caused irreversible effects on ecosystems is the introduction of exotic species. In addition to the ecological disasters that can be caused, such as the decline and extinction of native species, this phenomenon can generate significant economic losses and the possibility of the spread of parasites that are transmitted by these exotic species. These processes can be accentuated by climate change, which over time alters the global distribution pattern of the affected species, generating cases of niche overlap with species that share similar niches. In this sense, the knowledge about the areas with possible occurrence these species can direct the monitoring and control measures. In this study, we developed current and future prediction models to identify areas of suitability in the Neotropics for Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and nine species of mollusks native to the American continent using the ecological niche modeling tool. In addition, we evaluated the ecological niche overlap between the invasive species and the native species of freshwater mollusks to verify whether the effects of climate change would alter the distribution of these organisms. The following methodological procedures were adopted to prepare the forecasting models: records of occurrence of the mollusks in different databases and search of environmental data for climate conditions in current and future scenarios in WorldClim 2.0 (SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5). Besides, modeling procedures using seven packages of R software, evaluation of the models using the true skill statistic (TSS) metric, construction of maps and quantification and overlapping of ecological niche of the species included in the analysis. The results indicated that several areas of the Neotropics are suitable for the occurrence of M. tuberculata in the current scenarios. Moreover, the suitable areas for its occurrence will probably be expanded in both future scenarios. For native species, there were significant differences in relation to the areas of suitability, with a reduction for some species. Niche similarity tests indicated significant overlap only between M. tuberculata and the planorbid Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848). We discuss that the expansion of M. tuberculata can have negative consequences, including the reduction of native gastropod species and the spread of trematodes of medical and veterinary importance that this mollusk can transmit.
King’s Research Portal P Vieira Pompeu, M Mulligan, L Adrian Bruijnzeel, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Journal for Nature Conservation 90 (12719), 2 , 2026 2026
Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change PV Pompeu, M Mulligan, LA Bruijnzeel, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Journal for Nature Conservation, 127192 , 2025 2025
Climate change threatens the resilience of Bertholletia excelsa extractivism in the Southern Brazilian Amazon W Gervazio, JS Arguelho, MA Cupertino-Eisenlohr, JC Evangelista-Vale, ... Discover Forests 1 (1), 51 , 2025 2025
Biodiversity at risk: climate change impacts on Brazil’s semiarid Caatinga flora LP Teixeira, JC Pires-Oliveira, PW Portal-Gomes, PV Eisenlohr, ... Earth Systems and Environment, 1-16 , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
Could plant species currently used in the ecological restoration of a comprehensive ecotone in Brazil be resilient to climate changes? JS Arguelho, JA Oliveira, JC Pires-Oliveira, MA Cupertino-Eisenlohr, ... Plant Biosystems-An International Journal Dealing with all Aspects of Plant … , 2025 2025
Saguinus martinsi : predicted loss of habitat suitability following global warming and insights for the conservation of the species AT Martins-Oliveira, PV Eisenlohr, GR Canale, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Primates 66 (4), 391-403 , 2025 2025
Language bias, not knowledge shortfall, underestimates the evidence of megafauna kill sites in South America H Bampi, JC Pires-Oliveira, O Loyola-Bartra, MS Lima-Ribeiro Journal of South American Earth Sciences 146, 105078 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Use of a geospatial tool to predict the distribution of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and some native freshwater gastropods found in Brazil DGS Sousa, JC Pires-Oliveira, RLT Sousa, SM Freire, HA Pinto Biota Neotropica 24 (3), e20241638 , 2024 2024 Citations: 2
Abordagens lúdicas no ensino de ciências e biologia na Educação de Jovens e Adultos (EJA) G da Costa Moreira, G da Costa Moreira, JCP de Oliveira CONTRIBUCIONES A LAS CIENCIAS SOCIALES 17 (6), e7813-e7813 , 2024 2024
Decline in the potential distribution of fern species under climate change scenarios DC Silva, JC Pires-Oliveira, F de Paula Athayde Filho, JM da Silva Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental 18 (7), 1-22 , 2024 2024 Citations: 2
SAMPLING BIAS WORSEN THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF NICHE MODELS JC Pires-Oliveira, H Bampi, MS Lima-Ribeiro, PV Eisenlohr Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental 18 (1), 1-17 , 2024 2024 Citations: 1
Threats from climate change for lizard species of a Neotropical mountain range SC Gomides, JC Pires-Oliveira, TM Machado Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências 95, e20210519 , 2023 2023 Citations: 1
Fire probability mapping and prediction from environmental data: What a comprehensive savanna-forest transition can tell us L Barros-Rosa, PHZ de Arruda, NG Machado, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Forest Ecology and Management 520, 120354 , 2022 2022 Citations: 21
How will the distributions of native and invasive species be affected by climate change? Insights from giant South American land snails WS Teles, DP Silva, B Vilela, DP Lima-Junior, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Diversity 14 (6), 467 , 2022 2022 Citations: 29
Assessing species reintroduction sites based on future climate suitability for food resources SC Gomides, TM Machado, JC Evangelista‐Vale, AT Martins‐Oliveira, ... Conservation Biology 35 (6), 1821-1832 , 2021 2021 Citations: 12
New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets AC Gusmão, JC Evangelista-Vale, JC Pires-Oliveira, AA Barnett, ... Plos one 16 (9), e0256270 , 2021 2021 Citations: 9
Climate change may affect the future of extractivism in the Brazilian Amazon JC Evangelista-Vale, M Weihs, L José-Silva, R Arruda, NL Sander, ... Biological Conservation 257, 109093 , 2021 2021 Citations: 51
Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil? MB Castro, ACMC Barbosa, PV Pompeu, PV Eisenlohr, ... Biodiversity and Conservation 29 (2), 591-607 , 2020 2020 Citations: 47
Concepts and methods in environmental suitability modelling, an important tool for forest conservation JC Pires-Oliveira, L José-Silva, DSB Rocha, PV Eisenlohr Forest Conservation: Methods, Management and Challenges, 1st ed. New York … , 2019 2019 Citations: 8
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Climate change may affect the future of extractivism in the Brazilian Amazon JC Evangelista-Vale, M Weihs, L José-Silva, R Arruda, NL Sander, ... Biological Conservation 257, 109093 , 2021 2021 Citations: 51
Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil? MB Castro, ACMC Barbosa, PV Pompeu, PV Eisenlohr, ... Biodiversity and Conservation 29 (2), 591-607 , 2020 2020 Citations: 47
How will the distributions of native and invasive species be affected by climate change? Insights from giant South American land snails WS Teles, DP Silva, B Vilela, DP Lima-Junior, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Diversity 14 (6), 467 , 2022 2022 Citations: 29
Fire probability mapping and prediction from environmental data: What a comprehensive savanna-forest transition can tell us L Barros-Rosa, PHZ de Arruda, NG Machado, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Forest Ecology and Management 520, 120354 , 2022 2022 Citations: 21
Assessing species reintroduction sites based on future climate suitability for food resources SC Gomides, TM Machado, JC Evangelista‐Vale, AT Martins‐Oliveira, ... Conservation Biology 35 (6), 1821-1832 , 2021 2021 Citations: 12
New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets AC Gusmão, JC Evangelista-Vale, JC Pires-Oliveira, AA Barnett, ... Plos one 16 (9), e0256270 , 2021 2021 Citations: 9
Concepts and methods in environmental suitability modelling, an important tool for forest conservation JC Pires-Oliveira, L José-Silva, DSB Rocha, PV Eisenlohr Forest Conservation: Methods, Management and Challenges, 1st ed. New York … , 2019 2019 Citations: 8
Biodiversity at risk: climate change impacts on Brazil’s semiarid Caatinga flora LP Teixeira, JC Pires-Oliveira, PW Portal-Gomes, PV Eisenlohr, ... Earth Systems and Environment, 1-16 , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
Language bias, not knowledge shortfall, underestimates the evidence of megafauna kill sites in South America H Bampi, JC Pires-Oliveira, O Loyola-Bartra, MS Lima-Ribeiro Journal of South American Earth Sciences 146, 105078 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Use of a geospatial tool to predict the distribution of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and some native freshwater gastropods found in Brazil DGS Sousa, JC Pires-Oliveira, RLT Sousa, SM Freire, HA Pinto Biota Neotropica 24 (3), e20241638 , 2024 2024 Citations: 2
Decline in the potential distribution of fern species under climate change scenarios DC Silva, JC Pires-Oliveira, F de Paula Athayde Filho, JM da Silva Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental 18 (7), 1-22 , 2024 2024 Citations: 2
SAMPLING BIAS WORSEN THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF NICHE MODELS JC Pires-Oliveira, H Bampi, MS Lima-Ribeiro, PV Eisenlohr Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental 18 (1), 1-17 , 2024 2024 Citations: 1
Threats from climate change for lizard species of a Neotropical mountain range SC Gomides, JC Pires-Oliveira, TM Machado Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências 95, e20210519 , 2023 2023 Citations: 1
King’s Research Portal P Vieira Pompeu, M Mulligan, L Adrian Bruijnzeel, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Journal for Nature Conservation 90 (12719), 2 , 2026 2026
Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change PV Pompeu, M Mulligan, LA Bruijnzeel, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Journal for Nature Conservation, 127192 , 2025 2025
Climate change threatens the resilience of Bertholletia excelsa extractivism in the Southern Brazilian Amazon W Gervazio, JS Arguelho, MA Cupertino-Eisenlohr, JC Evangelista-Vale, ... Discover Forests 1 (1), 51 , 2025 2025
Could plant species currently used in the ecological restoration of a comprehensive ecotone in Brazil be resilient to climate changes? JS Arguelho, JA Oliveira, JC Pires-Oliveira, MA Cupertino-Eisenlohr, ... Plant Biosystems-An International Journal Dealing with all Aspects of Plant … , 2025 2025
Saguinus martinsi : predicted loss of habitat suitability following global warming and insights for the conservation of the species AT Martins-Oliveira, PV Eisenlohr, GR Canale, JC Pires-Oliveira, ... Primates 66 (4), 391-403 , 2025 2025
Abordagens lúdicas no ensino de ciências e biologia na Educação de Jovens e Adultos (EJA) G da Costa Moreira, G da Costa Moreira, JCP de Oliveira CONTRIBUCIONES A LAS CIENCIAS SOCIALES 17 (6), e7813-e7813 , 2024 2024
