Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Reanalysis Products and CMIP6 Models Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques With Nature-Inspired Optimization Sourav Choudhary, Santosh Murlidhar Pingale, Deepak Khare, Ruchir Patidar, Radha Krishan International Journal of Climatology, 2026 A comprehensive strategy that incorporates trend analysis, machine learning (ML), and climate model review is needed to improve water resource forecasts and evaluate hydroclimatic variability. The present study effectively combined various forms of categorical and continuous performance metrics for the CMIP6 and the reanalysis datasets in the Upper Godavari Sub‐basin area (UGSB) (India). MERRA2 reanalysis datasets demonstrated the highest accuracy for precipitation forecasting, achieving a POD of 0.82 and CSI of 0.71, while JRA‐55 closely followed with a CSI of 0.69. CMIP6 models exhibited overestimation tendencies, with a mean FAR of 0.34, highlighting their limitations in capturing precipitation extremes. Thereafter, to understand the long‐term variability of the best reanalysis product, trend analysis was also performed using the Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt's test, Van Neumann ratio (VNR), and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). This analysis revealed properly the spatial variability of the precipitation, showing increasing (1.5–2.3 mm/year) and decreasing rates for various stations inside the UGSB. Thereafter, the temporal frequency and the intensity were captured by the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) analysis, which further identified shifts in hydroclimatic variability towards higher frequencies after 2000. Thereafter, the prediction accuracy of prediction datasets of various ML models, which included Random Forest (RF), Multi‐Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM), and XGBoost models, were optimised by The Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) algorithm, and the best optimised model, RF‐HHO, showed reducing RMSE to 4.92 at Ambajogai, 4.81 at Bodhegaon, and 5.21 at Ranjni. The study highlights the importance of combining reanalysis products, trend analysis, and optimised ML models to improve future precipitation predictions and support effective water resource management.
Analysis of dependability of annual and monsoonal rainfall in Eastern Ganga Canal command, India Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019 Groundwater Sustainability Hydro Climate Climate Change and Environmental Engineering Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019, 2019 Effect of the climate change on rainfall characteristics varies spatially and must be quantified locally for optimal natural resources management. An attempt has been made to analyse the dependability in annual and monsoonal rainfall data over Eastern Ganga Canal (EGC) command area, India, for entire century, i.e. 1901–2012. The daily gridded (0.25°×0.25°) rainfall data prepared by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, are used. Long term data series are scaled to annual and monthly level. Total 12 grids of IMD rainfall data covering entire command area were selected in this study. Analysis for dry and wet year on annual scale along with five year moving average was carried out for all the grids as well as for entire command area. The analysis revealed that the chances of occurrence of wet year are more over chances of occurrence of dry year in the entire command area by the ratio of 14:13. However, data of last one and half decade has contradictory trend with higher changes of occurrence of dry year to very minimal chances of occurrence wet year over the command area. Dependable rainfall at various probability level has been estimated by employing gamma distribution analysis over the annual and monsoonal rainfall data. It was observed that mean annual and monsoonal weighted rainfall over entire command (1,165.93 mm and 901.95 mm, respectively) is much different than the 75% dependable rainfall values (985.48 mm and 727.54 mm, respectively), which generally must be used in any planning activity.
Analysis of trends in rainfall and dry/wet years over a century in the Eastern Ganga Canal command Radha Krishan, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Santosh M. Pingale, Ayush Chandrakar, Deepak Khare Meteorological Applications, 2018 In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyse the variability and trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over the Eastern Ganga Canal command area, India. To determine the trend in annual/seasonal rainfall and rainy days, the non‐parametric Mann−Kendall test and Sen's slope method were used over daily gridded rainfall for the time period 1901–2012. The results of the trend analysis revealed a decreasing trend in annual and monsoon rainfall in the range 18.5−61.7 and 19.4−56.7 mm/decade, respectively. For annual and monsoon rainy days, the results demonstrated a decreasing trend which varied from 1.8 to 2.9 and 1.4 to 2.2 days/decade, respectively, and an increasing trend in the range 0.2−1.4 and 1.0 days/decade, respectively. A variability analysis was performed to highlight the need for selecting an appropriate confidence level in trend analysis. It was observed that the grids showing a statistically non‐significant trend at the 95% confidence level exhibit a statistically significant trend at lower confidence levels. An analysis of dry and wet years on an annual scale revealed that the chances of occurrence of a wet year are more in comparison with the chances of occurrence of a dry year in the command area by a ratio of 14:13. However, data from the last one and a half decades has a contradictory trend with higher chances of occurrence of a dry year to very minimal chances of occurrence of a wet year. Dependable rainfall at various probability levels was estimated using a gamma distribution function. It was observed that the 75% dependable weighted annual and seasonal rainfall over the command area (985.48 and 727.54 mm) was significantly different with respect to the climatic mean weighted annual and seasonal rainfall against the weighted mean annual and seasonal rainfall (1,165.93 and 901.95 mm).
Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Trends of Long Term Precipitation over Kharun Watershed, Chhattisgarh, India Ayush Chandrakar, Deepak Khare, Radha Krishan Environmental Processes, 2017 The study and investigation of precipitation trends is quite important for a country like India, whose economy is largely based on agriculture, which in turn is significantly affected by water availability. Almost 83% of water is used in agriculture, 12% is consumed by industries and a mere 5% is used for domestic purposes. In the present study, the long term trend based on rainfall data of 115 years (1901–2015) was analyzed at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon/summer, monsoon, post-monsoon/winter) scale. After checking for cross-correlation in the data, Mann-Kendall test (MK) was applied, and in order to identify the trends, Sen’s slope estimator was used and the overall percent change for the rainfall over the study area was calculated. To interpolate the spatial pattern, an inverse distance weighted interpolation method (IDW) was used using ArcGIS 10.2.2. The analysis showed a significant decrease in the trend of rainfall for annual and seasonal series during the entire time period.
Analysis of rainfall trend before and after implementation of Eastern Ganga canal command Radha Krishan, Ayush Chandrakar, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Deepak Khare World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017 International Perspectives History and Heritage Emerging Technologies and Student Papers Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017, 2017 Huge number of irrigation projects are planned and executed throughout the globe for boosting agricultural production. However, in many of the irrigation projects the problem of efficient water management is becoming more complex with every passing year. The main reason for this may be the changing trends of water availability and demand, which is mainly dependent on precipitation. Though the irrigation projects are designed considering long-term historical climatic conditions, however, the accelerated climatic shift and change has put forward situations which were unimaginable in the past. Keeping this as background, in the present study, rainfall trend analysis has been done over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal (EGC) command for both pre project implementation phase (1901–1970) and post project implementation phase (1971–2012). Daily rainfall data of 102 years has been analysed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods to highlight the trends in annual, seasonal rainfall and number of rainy days. Analysis result showed increasing trend of 0.93 mm/year and 2.03 mm/year in annual rainfall and monsoon rainfall respectively, in the pre-project implementation phase, while decreasing trend of 0.27 mm/year and 1.11 mm/year in annual rainfall and monsoonal rainfall, respectively, in post-implementation phase has been observed. Further, occupancy of dry years was analysed using five year moving average analysis. The results indicated increase in probability of occurrence of dry years in pre to post project implementation phase from 7.1% to 14.3%. These results will help project managers in development of alternative management strategy.
Performance evaluation and hydrological trend detection of a reservoir under climate change condition Rabindranath Sethi, Brij Kishor Pandey, Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, P. C. Nayak Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2015 Water is the key of development and stability of any region. Under climate change condition, water systems are less reliable and more vulnerable. In this study, performance of Saline reservoir in Odisha, India has been evaluated under the climate change condition. The study mainly focused on the trend analysis for identified the temporal changes in precipitation and inflow time series using Mann–Kendall test, quantification of inflows to reservoir using ARNO model and performance evaluation of reservoir using WEAP model under climate change condition. In the results, it has been observed that there is no significant trend for annual, seasonal and for any monthly rainfall. Variation in precipitation shows that rainy days are decreasing whereas number of intense rainy days (>100 mm) are increasing. A significant rising trend with test statistic value of +3.18 is observed for daily inflow series at 95 % confidence level. Evaluation of inflow to reservoir, ARNO model shows that the change in simulated flow is directly proportional to the change in rainfall. In order to 25 % Change, decrease or increase in rainfall amount resulted in equal amount of decrease or increase in the inflow. Performance evaluation of reservoir using WEAP model shows that if inflows reduced by 20 % there would be a decrease in supply reliability and it would not be possible to increase supplies. Reducing live storage by 10 % influence supply delivered in May and June, but again has little impact on the rest of the year.
RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Temporal analysis of climate variables and implications for water resource management: a case study of Hemavathy dam, Hassan district, Karnataka, India R Krishan, DV Thirumalesha, D Khare Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy, 1-16 , 2026 2026
Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Reanalysis Products and CMIP6 Models Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques With Nature‐Inspired Optimization S Choudhary, SM Pingale, D Khare, R Patidar, R Krishan International Journal of Climatology 46 (1), e70159 , 2026 2026 Citations: 3
Spatiotemporal dynamics and future prediction of land use scenarios in Almora, Uttarakhand: Integrating cellular automata and neural network: Radha Krishan et al. R Krishan, A Sharma, S Tudu, K Kour Journal of Earth System Science 134 (4), 244 , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Characterizing temporal variability in meteorological parameters patterns in the Asan River Watershed, Uttarakhand, India: Insights from long-term data analysis A Sharma, R Krishan, B Nikam, DS Bagri Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy 91 (3), 783-803 , 2025 2025 Citations: 2
Quantification of the surface and groundwater dynamics of Upper Godavari Sub-Basin using SWAT-MODFLOW and CMIP6 climate change scenarios S Choudhary, SM Pingale, D Khare, R Krishan Hydrological Sciences Journal 70 (10), 1662-1685 , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
Insight into the impact of land use/land cover change on runoff incorporating hydrological modelling to analyse their impact on the water regime A Sharma, R Krishan, K Kour, BR Nikam, DS Bagri Navigating the Nexus: Hydrology, Agriculture, Pollution and Climate Change … , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Insight into the Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Runoff Incorporating Hydrological Modelling to Analyse Their A Sharma, R Krishan, K Kour, BR Nikam, DS Bagri Navigating the Nexus: Hydrology, Agriculture, Pollution and Climate Change … , 2025 2025
Enhancing Sustainable Urban Planning Through Sleuth Modeling: a Case Study of Urban Growth in the Asan Watershed, Uttarakhand, India A Sharma, R Krishan, B Nikam, DS Bagri 2024 Citations: 1
Urbanization trends and challenges: a case study in the Asan watershed of Uttarakhand on Urban Growth patterns and sustainable land use planning A Sharma, R Krishan, BR Nikam, DS Bagri 2024 Citations: 3
Crop-level mapping and assessment of climate-change on cropping pattern of eastern Ganga canal command using satellite-based and climate projection datasets R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam, S Swain XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics … , 2023 2023
Performance Evaluation and Estimation of Water Footprint of the Irrigation Project for Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam Fall Meeting 2022 , 2022 2022
Assessment of Irrigation Potential using Remote Sensing a Case Study R Krishan, D Khare, B Nikam AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2021, H35U-1282 , 2021 2021
Trend Analysis of Temperature for Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, BR Nikam, D Khare Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: Hydraulics, Water Resources and … , 2021 2021
Trends in Rainfall Pattern over Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2019, H51T-1776 , 2019 2019
Analysis of Dependability of Annual and Monsoonal Rainfall in Eastern Ganga Canal Command, India R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam, A Chandrakar World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019, 344-355 , 2019 2019
Assessing Spatiotemporal Trends of Long Term Temperature over Kharun Watershed Chhattisgarh, India A Chandrakar, R Krishan, D Khare, S Palmate 2018
Trend Analysis of Temperature and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration for Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam HYDRO 2018 International Conference , 2018 2018
Hydrological Simulation of an Ungauged Catchment (Kharun Watershed) using SWAT A Chandrakar, BK Pandey, R Krishan, TM Worku, D Khare Sustainable Technologies for Intelligent Water Management (STIWM … , 2018 2018
Prediction Of Monthly Runoff and Sediment for Agricultural Watershed using SWAT R Krishan, A Chouksey, BR Nikam, D Khare, A Chandrakar, BK Pandey, ... Sustainable Technologies for Intelligent Water Management (STIWM … , 2018 2018
Impact of Climate Shift on Rainfall and Temperature Trend in Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam, A Chandrakar International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering 12 (8 … , 2018 2018 Citations: 2
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Performance evaluation and hydrological trend detection of a reservoir under climate change condition R Sethi, BK Pandey, R Krishan, D Khare, PC Nayak Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 1 (4), 33 , 2015 2015 Citations: 42
Assessment of spatial and temporal trends of long term precipitation over Kharun Watershed, Chhattisgarh, India A Chandrakar, D Khare, R Krishan Environmental Processes 4 (4), 959-974 , 2017 2017 Citations: 19
Analysis of Trends in Rainfall and Dry‐Wet Years over a Century in Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, BR Nikam, SM Pingale, A Chandrakar, D Khare Meteorological Applications 25 (4), 561-574 , 2018 2018 Citations: 17
A comparative study on environmental flows assessment methods in lower reach of Mahanadi River S Sahoo, D Khare, PK Mishra, S Behera, R Krishan International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology (IJETT) 32 (2), 82-90 , 2016 2016 Citations: 11
Long term rainfall data analysis over Eastern Ganga canal command area R Krishan, A Chandrakar, BR Nikam, SM Pingale, D Khare Indian Journal of Soil Conservation 45 (3), 338-347 , 2017 2017 Citations: 8
Quantification of the surface and groundwater dynamics of Upper Godavari Sub-Basin using SWAT-MODFLOW and CMIP6 climate change scenarios S Choudhary, SM Pingale, D Khare, R Krishan Hydrological Sciences Journal 70 (10), 1662-1685 , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
Assessment of spatial and temporal trends of long term precipitation over Kharun Watershed, Chhattisgarh, India. Environ Process 4: 959–974 A Chandrakar, D Khare, R Krishan 2017 Citations: 6
Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Reanalysis Products and CMIP6 Models Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques With Nature‐Inspired Optimization S Choudhary, SM Pingale, D Khare, R Patidar, R Krishan International Journal of Climatology 46 (1), e70159 , 2026 2026 Citations: 3
Urbanization trends and challenges: a case study in the Asan watershed of Uttarakhand on Urban Growth patterns and sustainable land use planning A Sharma, R Krishan, BR Nikam, DS Bagri 2024 Citations: 3
Flood Frequency analysis for Kosi river at its barrage site R Krishan, LB Roy Journal of Indian Water Resources Society 36 (1), 10-16 , 2016 2016 Citations: 3
Characterizing temporal variability in meteorological parameters patterns in the Asan River Watershed, Uttarakhand, India: Insights from long-term data analysis A Sharma, R Krishan, B Nikam, DS Bagri Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy 91 (3), 783-803 , 2025 2025 Citations: 2
Impact of Climate Shift on Rainfall and Temperature Trend in Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam, A Chandrakar International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering 12 (8 … , 2018 2018 Citations: 2
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN RAINFALL OVER A CENTURY IN EASTERN GANGA CANAL COMMAND R Krishan, A Chandrakar, BR Nikam, D Khare HYDRO 2016, International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources and … , 2016 2016 Citations: 2
Spatiotemporal dynamics and future prediction of land use scenarios in Almora, Uttarakhand: Integrating cellular automata and neural network: Radha Krishan et al. R Krishan, A Sharma, S Tudu, K Kour Journal of Earth System Science 134 (4), 244 , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Insight into the impact of land use/land cover change on runoff incorporating hydrological modelling to analyse their impact on the water regime A Sharma, R Krishan, K Kour, BR Nikam, DS Bagri Navigating the Nexus: Hydrology, Agriculture, Pollution and Climate Change … , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Enhancing Sustainable Urban Planning Through Sleuth Modeling: a Case Study of Urban Growth in the Asan Watershed, Uttarakhand, India A Sharma, R Krishan, B Nikam, DS Bagri 2024 Citations: 1
Analysis of Rainfall Trend before and after Implementation of Eastern Ganga Canal Command R Krishan, A Chandrakar, BR Nikam, D Khare International Conference on World Environment and Water Resources Congress … , 2017 2017 Citations: 1
Temporal analysis of climate variables and implications for water resource management: a case study of Hemavathy dam, Hassan district, Karnataka, India R Krishan, DV Thirumalesha, D Khare Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy, 1-16 , 2026 2026
Insight into the Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Runoff Incorporating Hydrological Modelling to Analyse Their A Sharma, R Krishan, K Kour, BR Nikam, DS Bagri Navigating the Nexus: Hydrology, Agriculture, Pollution and Climate Change … , 2025 2025
Crop-level mapping and assessment of climate-change on cropping pattern of eastern Ganga canal command using satellite-based and climate projection datasets R Krishan, D Khare, BR Nikam, S Swain XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics … , 2023 2023