Modeling Stipa Arabica Trin and Rupr. Habitat Displacement in Central Iran Using Ecological and Climate-based Approaches Saboohi, Razieh, Khodagholi, Morteza, Naseri, Somayeh, Zarekia, Sefigheh, Pourmirzaei, Ahmad, et al. Journal of Rangeland Science, 2026 One of the main concerns of rangeland managers is to understand the factors that cause climate change and the effects of these factors on the main factors of rangeland management such as vegetation. Climate change in the rangelands of the highlands causes a decrease in biodiversity and deterioration in the downstream areas. This study aimed to predict the future habitat displacement of Stipa arabica Trin and Rupr. in the rangelands of Isfahan, Yazd, Semnan, and Kerman provinces, Iran under climate change conditions. The research objectives include identifying key environmental factors influencing Stipa arabica distribution, modeling its habitat suitability, and assessing potential shifts in elevation due to climate change. A predictive habitat map was developed by employing a logistic regression based on environmental variables, species presence/absence data, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis. To achieve this, key species associated with Stipa arabica were identified through expert interviews, and then, habitat characteristics were analyzed based on species behavior. Data on vegetation cover and environmental factors were collected from the station established by 2020, and habitat suitability was modeled in ArcGIS 10.3. The Kappa coefficient was used to assess model accuracy. The Kappa coefficient was 86, which according to the classification by Koch and Smith, falls into the category of models with good accuracy. The results indicate that Stipa arabica currently occupies elevations between 1,600 and 2,550 m above sea level, with a 75–100% probability of occurrence across approximately 5.2 million ha (10.7% of the study area). However, climate projections suggest that by 2050, its suitable habitat will shift to higher elevations 1,750–2,800 m under scenario (RCP 4.5) and 1,850–3,050 m under scenario (RCP 8.5). As temperatures rise due to climate change, the total suitable habitat area for Stipa arabica is expected to decline, forcing its migration to cooler, higher-altitude regions. To mitigate the impact of climate change on Stipa arabica, it is recommended that conservation efforts focus on the protection of higher-altitude habitats and the establishment of ecological corridors to facilitate species migration. Additionally, future research should explore adaptive management strategies for maintaining rangeland biodiversity in response to ongoing climate change.
Aligning Trends in Climatic Parameters and Nomads' Indigenous Knowledge about Climate Change in Central Iran (Case Study: Semirom town) Razieh Saboohi, Hossein Barani, Morteza Khodagholi, Ahmad Abedi Sarvestani, Asghar Tahmasebi, Hart Nadav Feuer Weather Climate and Society, 2022 Nomadic pastoral communities are considered some of the most vulnerable to climate change. While Indigenous knowledge can play an effective role in mitigating or responding to some impacts of climate change, the extent of their capacity to adapt their livestock and rangeland management is under question. This research aims to assess the scope and applicability of climate change–related knowledge acquired in the management of summer rangeland, with a case study in Semirom, Isfahan Province, Iran. To do so, objective weather conditions (precipitation, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures) were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and compared with subjective evaluations by nomad community members. Specifically, the study targeted a community of 7700 members of the Qashqai, a conglomeration of nomadic tribes in Iran. Their understanding of the weather was evaluated using focus groups and self-administered questionnaires, with a descriptive approach to data analysis. The findings of the climatic investigation revealed a possible shift in the climate in the study area, particularly in winter and autumn. The findings of subjective evaluation showed similar changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature to be the main characteristics of climate change in the region, with about 90% of informants directly citing decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature and wind speeds. The community evaluation also highlighted some adaptations to climate change, such as delays in beginning the seasonal migration, increased reliance on concrete homes, reservoir construction, decreasing livestock yields, and increasing diversification of resources to feed livestock. Understanding the perceptions of nomadic pastoralists, their meteorological basis, and ongoing climate adaptations can facilitate governmental planning.
A comparison of vegetative climate of Artemisia sieberi Besser and Artemisia aucheri Boiss in Iran Morteza Khodagholi, Razieh Saboohi, Ehsan Zandi Esfahani Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021 The relationship between plant species and climatic factors has always been a fundamental issue in plant ecology, and the use of multivariate statistical methods can be effective in revealing the relationship between climatic factors and plant species distribution. Therefore, in this study, climatic factors affecting the distribution of Artemisia sieberi and Artemisia aucheri, widely distributed in Iran, were investigated. For this purpose, 117 climatic factors were used, and to reduce the number of factors and determine the most important effective ones, a factor analysis was used by principal component analysis. The results showed that six factors including heating temperature, spring and summer precipitation, wind, autumn–winter precipitation, and dusty and cloudiness days explained 37.32%, 22.54%, 7.18%, 6.6%, 4.22%, and 4.15% of data variation, respectively. Together these seven factors account for 82% of data variation. The autumn–winter precipitation and heating temperature had the greatest impact on the presence of Artemisia sieberi and Artemisia aucheri, respectively, so that the autumn–winter precipitation was negative in areas where Ar.sieberi is observed. The heating temperature factor is negative in areas where Ar.aucheri is present, while it is positive in areas lacking Ar.aucheri. The study of the effect of environmental factors on Artemisia species distribution is very important in the planning and management of natural resources, and Artemisia is one of the most important plants in the country’s rangelands; therefore, the results of this research can be used for practical planning, management, and reclamation of these rangelands.
Nomads’ indigenous knowledge and their adaptation to climate changes in Semirom City in Central Iran Razieh Saboohi, Hossein Barani, Morteza Khodagholi, Ahmad Abedi Sarvestani, Asghar Tahmasebi Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019 Herding-based livelihood is a traditional production system in arid and semi-arid areas characterized by a dynamic and flexible self-adapting structure to adjust to unpredictable climate changes and unfavorable natural conditions. In this case, indigenous knowledge and information systems play a pivotal role in linking such structures to changing conditions. Taking such role into account, an attempt was made to investigate the nomadic knowledge of local people residing in summer rangelands of Semirom Township in Isfahan Province, Iran, gained in response to climate change. A cluster sampling procedure was used to extract the case study population from a number of nearly 7700 Qashqai nomads divided into four, Dare shoori, Amale, Shesh blocki, and Farsimdan, clans in which grazing systems were recognized as clusters or sampling units. In-depth group interviewing and exploratory methods were then used to assess the role of nomadic indigenous knowledge and insights into utilization of summer rangelands gained on adaptation to climate change and data collected from interviews were analyzed using content analysis. The results showed that people of Qashqai tribes have a thorough knowledge of climate change and have adopted long-term adaptive solutions such as building cement-block houses and water storage ponds as well as changing the migration routes and locations to cope with the adverse consequences of climate change.
Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran R. Saboohi, S. Soltani, M. Khodagholi Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012 In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperature are investigated at 35 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trends is assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Most stations, especially those in western and eastern parts of country, had significant positive trends in monthly temperature time series in summer season. However, the maximum number of stations with the positive trend were observed in April (30 stations), and then in August (29 stations) while the negative trends were seen in February (16 stations) and March (15 stations). On annual scale, most stations in western and southern parts of Iran had significant positive trend. Overall, about 71%, 66% and about 40% of stations had statistically significant trends in mean annual temperature, mean annual minimum temperature and in mean annual maximum temperature, respectively. These results, however, indicate that the climate in Iran is growing warmer, especially in summer.
Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran Saeed Soltani, R. Saboohi, L. Yaghmaei Climatic Change, 2012 In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in rainfall amount, number of rainy days and maximum precipitation in 24 h are investigated based on the data collected at 33 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trend and climate variability is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test indicate that there are no significant linear trends in monthly rainfall at most of the synoptic stations in Iran. However, the maximum number of stations with negative trends have been observed in April (29 station), and then in May (21 stations) and February (21 stations) and with positive trends in December (26 stations) and July (24 stations). The significant linear trends, with a significant level of 0.05, in annual rainfall have been noticed only at five stations. The monthly number of rainy days does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in rainy days has also been observed in April with the minimum in December. In April, out of 24 stations with negative trends, 12 stations have a significant negative trend. Contrary to that, in October there is no significant linear trend. Most stations have positive trends in annual number of rainy days. Also, the monthly maximum precipitation in 24 h does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in maximum precipitation has also been observed in February with the minimum in December. In spite of that, there are almost no significant precipitation variations in Iran during the last 50-odd years, the tendency of decreasing rainfall amount in April and increasing rainfall amount in December and July could indicate an eventual climate change in this area in the future.
