Robert Fofrich

@ucla.edu

Robert Fofrich


                        Download Compact PDF  
https://researchid.co/rfofrich

EDUCATION

2022 - Ph.D., Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
2019 - M.S., Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
2016 - B.S., Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
2014 - A.A., Liberal Arts & Science: Math, Sciences & Computer Science, magna cum laude West Los Angeles College
3

Scopus Publications

283

Scholar Citations

4

Scholar h-index

3

Scholar i10-index

Scopus Publications

  • A path to US Tribal energy sovereignty
    Shane Seibel, Richard Luarkie, Daniel Cardenas, Cody Mayer, Ramon Sanchez, Matt Dannenberg, Bazile Minogiizhigaabo Panek, Albert Bond, Zane Gordon, Demi Morishige, Kourtney Hadrick, Graham Stahnke, Robert Fofrich, Steve Davis, Richard Tallman, Brooke Bowser, Morgan D. Bazilian
    Science, 2025
  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
    Robert Fofrich, Dan Tong, Katherine Calvin, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Joeri Rogelj, Steven J Davis
    Environmental Research Letters, 2020
    International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.
  • Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India
    Christine Shearer, Robert Fofrich, Steven J. Davis
    Earth S Future, 2017
    With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal‐fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid‐2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal‐fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under‐development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non‐fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal‐fired plants could therefore either “strand” fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by “locking‐out” new, low‐carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre‐industrial era.

RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Climate and ecological constraints of cultivating bioenergy crops for climate mitigation in tropical regions
    R Fofrich Navarro, A Chiu, EM Ordway
    PNAS nexus 5 (5), pgag123 , 2026
    2026
  • Ownership of power plants stranded by climate mitigation
    R Fofrich Navarro, L Liebermann, FC Moore, C Shearer, SJ Davis
    Nature Sustainability 9 (2), 328-336 , 2026
    2026
    Citations: 3
  • A path to US Tribal energy sovereignty
    S Seibel, R Luarkie, D Cardenas, C Mayer, R Sanchez, M Dannenberg, ...
    Science 387 (6732), 372-372 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Timing of emergence of temperature-related mortality: A race between warming temperatures and economic development
    DD Blanco, RE Kopp, T Carleton, KE McCusker, R Fofrich, P Kumar, ...
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2024, GC51B-04 , 2024
    2024
  • Electricity climate-compatibility index: Measuring global progress towards decarbonising the power sector
    A Alotaiq, K Collet, R Fofrich, D William, M McCulloch
    Journal of Economy and Technology 2, 1-21 , 2024
    2024
  • GDNat: a global, daily, high-resolution, natural-forcing only temperature data set for attribution research
    R Fofrich, K McCusker, B Malevich, R Kopp
    American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting , 2024
    2024
  • Ecological and Climate Mitigation Tradeoffs from Cultivating Energy Crops in Tropical Regions
    R Fofrich, A Chiu, E Ordway
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2023 (1137), GC23G-1137 , 2023
    2023
  • Electricity Climate-Compatibility Index: Measuring Global Progress Towards Decarbonising the Electricity Sector
    A Alotaiq, KA Collett, R Fofrich, D Wallom, M McCulloch
    Available at SSRN 4415950 , 2023
    2023
  • Constraints to climate change mitigation and adaptation
    RA Fofrich
    University of California, Irvine , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 1
  • Decarbonizing the global electricity sector: Implications for climate change mitigation and corporate stranded investments.
    R Fofrich, L Liebermann, D Tong, FC Moore, SJ Davis
    AGU Fall Meeting 2021 , 2021
    2021
  • Evaluating the MISR Plume Height Project dataset: A comparison of MISR-derived landscape fire plume heights with remote sensing lidar data
    M Tosca, J Campbell, R Fofrich, M Laffin, M Garay, O Kalashnikova, ...
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2021, B25M-1647 , 2021
    2021
  • Agricultural migration to avoid future climate change
    R Fofrich, L Sloat, N Mueller, S Davis
    American Geophysical Union - 2020 Fall Meeting , 2020
    2020
  • Committed emissions of the US power sector, 2000–2018
    C Shearer, D Tong, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    AGU advances 1 (3), e2020AV000162 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 22
  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, K Calvin, HS De Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, ...
    Environmental Research Letters 15 (9), 094064 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 86
  • Early Retirement of Power Plants Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios
    RA Fofrich, D Tong, KV Calvin, HS de Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, ...
    < bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam … , 2020
    2020
  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, K Calvin, HSD Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, S Fujimori, ...
    American Geophysical Union - Fall Meeting 2019 , 2019
    2019
  • Infrastructural inertia in energy-emissions scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, J Rogelj, SJ Davis
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2018, GC43E-1572 , 2018
    2018
  • Future CO 2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal‐fired power plants in India
    C Shearer, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    Earth's Future 5 (4), 408-416 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 166
  • Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India. Earth’s Future 5: 408–416
    C Shearer, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    2017
    Citations: 4
  • Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India
    R Fofrich, C Shearer, SJ Davis
    American Geophysical Union - Fall Meeting 2017 , 2017
    2017

MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Future CO 2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal‐fired power plants in India
    C Shearer, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    Earth's Future 5 (4), 408-416 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 166
  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, K Calvin, HS De Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, ...
    Environmental Research Letters 15 (9), 094064 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 86
  • Committed emissions of the US power sector, 2000–2018
    C Shearer, D Tong, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    AGU advances 1 (3), e2020AV000162 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 22
  • Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India. Earth’s Future 5: 408–416
    C Shearer, R Fofrich, SJ Davis
    2017
    Citations: 4
  • Ownership of power plants stranded by climate mitigation
    R Fofrich Navarro, L Liebermann, FC Moore, C Shearer, SJ Davis
    Nature Sustainability 9 (2), 328-336 , 2026
    2026
    Citations: 3
  • A path to US Tribal energy sovereignty
    S Seibel, R Luarkie, D Cardenas, C Mayer, R Sanchez, M Dannenberg, ...
    Science 387 (6732), 372-372 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Constraints to climate change mitigation and adaptation
    RA Fofrich
    University of California, Irvine , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 1
  • Climate and ecological constraints of cultivating bioenergy crops for climate mitigation in tropical regions
    R Fofrich Navarro, A Chiu, EM Ordway
    PNAS nexus 5 (5), pgag123 , 2026
    2026
  • Timing of emergence of temperature-related mortality: A race between warming temperatures and economic development
    DD Blanco, RE Kopp, T Carleton, KE McCusker, R Fofrich, P Kumar, ...
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2024, GC51B-04 , 2024
    2024
  • Electricity climate-compatibility index: Measuring global progress towards decarbonising the power sector
    A Alotaiq, K Collet, R Fofrich, D William, M McCulloch
    Journal of Economy and Technology 2, 1-21 , 2024
    2024
  • GDNat: a global, daily, high-resolution, natural-forcing only temperature data set for attribution research
    R Fofrich, K McCusker, B Malevich, R Kopp
    American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting , 2024
    2024
  • Ecological and Climate Mitigation Tradeoffs from Cultivating Energy Crops in Tropical Regions
    R Fofrich, A Chiu, E Ordway
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2023 (1137), GC23G-1137 , 2023
    2023
  • Electricity Climate-Compatibility Index: Measuring Global Progress Towards Decarbonising the Electricity Sector
    A Alotaiq, KA Collett, R Fofrich, D Wallom, M McCulloch
    Available at SSRN 4415950 , 2023
    2023
  • Decarbonizing the global electricity sector: Implications for climate change mitigation and corporate stranded investments.
    R Fofrich, L Liebermann, D Tong, FC Moore, SJ Davis
    AGU Fall Meeting 2021 , 2021
    2021
  • Evaluating the MISR Plume Height Project dataset: A comparison of MISR-derived landscape fire plume heights with remote sensing lidar data
    M Tosca, J Campbell, R Fofrich, M Laffin, M Garay, O Kalashnikova, ...
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2021, B25M-1647 , 2021
    2021
  • Agricultural migration to avoid future climate change
    R Fofrich, L Sloat, N Mueller, S Davis
    American Geophysical Union - 2020 Fall Meeting , 2020
    2020
  • Early Retirement of Power Plants Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios
    RA Fofrich, D Tong, KV Calvin, HS de Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, ...
    < bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam … , 2020
    2020
  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, K Calvin, HSD Boer, J Emmerling, O Fricko, S Fujimori, ...
    American Geophysical Union - Fall Meeting 2019 , 2019
    2019
  • Infrastructural inertia in energy-emissions scenarios
    R Fofrich, D Tong, J Rogelj, SJ Davis
    AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2018, GC43E-1572 , 2018
    2018
  • Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India
    R Fofrich, C Shearer, SJ Davis
    American Geophysical Union - Fall Meeting 2017 , 2017
    2017