Silu Muduli
@rbi.org.in
Economist
Reserve Bank of India
Scopus Publications
Scholar Citations
Scholar h-index
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
Silu Muduli and Shridhar Kumar Dash
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Silu Muduli and Harendra Behera
Informa UK Limited
Silu Muduli and Manu Sharma
SAGE Publications
The overall ratio of non-performing assets (NPAs) to total advances (the NPA ratio) extended to self-help groups (SHGs) has historically remained below 8 per cent in India. However, in the central, northern, and north-eastern regions of India, this ratio is relatively high and has remained above 15 per cent since 2015–2016. Using state-level data, the study identifies SHG-specific and state-specific factors that might be responsible for higher NPAs ratios. It also examines whether higher NPAs constrain access to future credit. Spatial analysis confirms the existence of geographical clustering of NPAs in the northern and central regions of the country. SHGs with lower outstanding loans and lower savings are more likely to default, the relationship being stronger in states with higher NPAs. The article finds that states with higher SHGs densities, per capita incomes, and road and railway connectivity, and lower infant mortality rates have lower NPAs in their SHGs. SHGs with lower savings and higher NPAs operating in states with lower per capita incomes and banking penetration face difficulties accessing fresh credits. JEL Codes: G21, O18, R51
Sitikantha Pattanaik, Silu Muduli, and Soumyajit Ray
Informa UK Limited
ABSTRACT This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based measures of inflation expectations to predict inflation using hybrid versions of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). While both 3 months ahead and 1-year ahead inflation expectations of households emerge statistically significant in explaining and predicting inflation in India, effectively they work as substitutes of backward looking expectations given that household expectations are found to be largely adaptive. Unlike in other countries, this paper does not find much evidence on flattening of the Phillips curve. Also, no robust evidence is found on expectations induced wage pressures influencing CPI inflation.