Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Simulation
13
Scopus Publications
143
Scholar Citations
7
Scholar h-index
5
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
Analysis of a Fractional-Order Mathematical Model on Crime Dynamics Incorporating Police Force and Rehabilitation Waleed Adel, Mohammad Izadi, Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw Journal of Mathematics, 2026 This study addresses the limitation of traditional integer‐order crime models that fail to capture memory‐dependent dynamics in criminal behavior. Our objective is to develop and analyze a novel fractional‐order model incorporating media influence, police force, and rehabilitation strategies using the Liouville−Caputo derivative. The novelty lies in simultaneously integrating multiple societal interventions within a memory‐dependent framework and developing a new generalized telephone polynomial collocation method (GTPCM) for numerical solution. We employ fractional calculus theory for stability and bifurcation analysis alongside our spectral numerical method. The main contribution is a complete mathematical framework bridging theoretical criminology and computational mathematics. Key findings reveal that fractional memory effects alter crime persistence through damped oscillations, identify critical parameters via sensitivity analysis, and demonstrate through optimal control that combined preventive and rehabilitative strategies to reduce criminal populations by approximately 78.1% compared to no intervention.
HIV/AIDS compartmental model analysis with drug resistance treatment, vertical transmission, and optimal control theory Olumuyiwa James Peter, Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu, Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun, Gbolahan Bolarin, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw Scientific Reports, 2025 This study develops a novel HIV/AIDS compartmental model that integrates the critical, interconnected challenges of drug resistance emergence from treated individuals, healthcare constraints via a saturating treatment function, and persistent vertical transmission. The objective is to provide a comprehensive mathematical framework for analyzing these complex dynamics and designing effective intervention strategies. Our analysis reveals that treatment saturation can induce a backward bifurcation, complicating disease eradication efforts, while optimal control simulations demonstrate that a combined strategy of enhanced screening, accelerated treatment initiation, and adherence support significantly reduces infection pools and minimizes disease progression compared to isolated interventions.
Modelling human response to information in voluntary vaccination behaviour using epidemic data Bruno Buonomo, , Rossella Della Marca, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw, and Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2025 Here, we considered Holling functional responses, a core concept in population dynamics, and discussed their potential interpretation in the context of social epidemiology. Then, we assessed which Holling functional response best represents the vaccination behaviour of individuals when such a behaviour is influenced by information and rumours about the disease. In particular, we used the Holling functionals to represent the information-dependent vaccination rate in a socio-epidemiological model for meningococcal meningitis. As a field case test, we estimated the information-related parameters by using official data from a meningitis outbreak in Nigeria and numerically assessed the impact of the functionals on the solutions of the model. We observed significant inaccuracies on parameter estimates when either Holling type Ⅰ or Holling type Ⅲ functional were used. On the contrary, when the Holling type Ⅱ functional was employed, epidemiological data were well reproduced, and reasonable values of the information parameters were obtained. Given the socio-epidemiological interpretation of the Holling type Ⅱ functional, this means that the rate at which susceptible individuals come into contact with information may be assumed to be constant and that the time needed to handle the available information cannot be neglected.
Stochastic and Deterministic Models for Rubella Dynamics with Two Doses of Vaccination and Vertical Transmission Getachew Teshome Tilahun, Tariku Merga Tolasa, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw, Getinet Alemayehu Wole Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2024 Rubella is a highly contagious viral disease that can be transmitted through contact with infected people or objects. If a pregnant woman is infected with rubella, the virus can be transmitted to the fetus, which can cause birth defects. To prevent rubella, children need to receive the MMR vaccine twice. In this study, we developed a deterministic and stochastic mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of rubella infection, considering vertical transmission and environmental factors. The model divides the population into five groups: susceptible, first vaccinated, protected, infected, and recovered. From the perspective of the qualitative behavior of the model, the model is bound to an invariant domain, and all solutions within the compartment are positive. We analyzed the equilibrium point of the model and its stability, and we determined the basic reproductive number using the next‐generation matrix. The basic reproductive number for the stochastic model is smaller than that for the deterministic model due to randomness. By comparing the two models in terms of the basic reproductive number, extending the deterministic model to a stochastic model can provide more realistic information about the disease, predict its dynamic propagation, and give suggestions for control mechanisms. Numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed to study the influence of fundamental parameters, and the simulation results were displayed graphically using the MATLAB computer software. Parameter values were obtained from published papers, some of which were assumed. The simulation results show that the stochastic curve is not as smooth as the deterministic curve due to the randomness of the rubella. The consideration of the double vaccination dose and white noise intensity plays an important role in predicting disease status and minimizing and eradicating rubella. Therefore, reducing vertical infection and transmission rates and increasing vaccination and recovery rates will help to prevent and control the spread of rubella.
ESTIMATING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POSSIBLE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LEVEL USING A MATHEMATICAL MODEL AND THE SMAP SOIL MOISTURE DATA: THE CASE OF BOTSWANA A. A. Ejigu, M. D. Asfaw, Semu Mitiku Kassa Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience, 2022 . In a traditional livestock farming, the livelihood of animals depends highly on existing plant biomass, which is affected by the level and intensity of temperature, rainfall, humidity and other meteorological variables. Understanding the interaction of such meteorological factors and agricultural production in general is an important aspect in planning at the macro and micro levels. Particularly livestock agriculture is heavily affected by the changing climate, and hence the variation in major meteorological variables. However, there is still limited research regarding the impacts of meteorological variables on livestock production in each particular region. Soil moisture is one of the main factors in agricultural production and hydrological cycles with better memory of previous weather conditions. It also involves complex structural characteristics and meteorological factors. In this study, a soil moisture dependent mathematical model for the interaction of plants and herbivores is developed and analysed. The Soil Moisture Active Passive level 4 satellite soil moisture data is used in the model to simulate the possible spatial distribution of plants and the corresponding potential livestock production level for Botswana. A global dynamic sensitivity analysis is employed to study the sensitivity of the solution of the model with a variation in
Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw, Lisa Cavalerie, Tilahun Abebaw, Mark Nanyingi, Matthew Baylis Plos One, 2021 The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, Ethiopia under the COVAX facility has begun vaccinating high risk populations but due to vaccine supply shortages and the absence of an effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, still remain the most effective methods of controlling the pandemic as recommended by WHO. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs at different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results indicated that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the models indicate that the projected number of hospital cases during the peak time is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within the health system capacity, the government should pay attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.
Analysis of a Fractional‐Order Mathematical Model on Crime Dynamics Incorporating Police Force and Rehabilitation W Adel, M Izadi, SW Teklu, MD Asfaw Journal of Mathematics 2026 (1), 1372780 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
HIV/AIDS compartmental model analysis with drug resistance treatment, vertical transmission, and optimal control theory OJ Peter, SW Teklu, GB Balogun, G Bolarin, MD Asfaw Scientific Reports 15 (1), 44156 , 2025 2025
Modelling human response to information in voluntary vaccination behaviour using epidemic data B Buonomo, R Della Marca, MD Asfaw Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 22 (5), 1185-1205 , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
The use of an imperfect vaccination and awareness campaign in the control of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea infection: A mathematical modelling perspective YA Terefe, SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, C Venter Applied Mathematical Modelling 135, 149-172 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Modeling on cost-effectiveness of monkeypox disease control strategies with consideration of environmental transmission effects in the presence of vaccination TD Awoke, SM Kassa, YA Terefe, MD Asfaw Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 10 (5), 6105-6132 , 2024 2024 Citations: 11
Modeling natural forage dependent livestock production in arid and semi-arid regions: analysis of seasonal soil moisture variability and environmental factors SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, AA Ejigu, GM Tsidu Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 10 (3), 3645-3663 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Stochastic and deterministic models for Rubella dynamics with two doses of vaccination and vertical transmission GT Tilahun, TM Tolasa, MD Asfaw, GA Wole Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2024 (1), 9697951 , 2024 2024 Citations: 7
Impact of self-protection measures to reduce antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea infection YA Terefe, SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, C Venter Biomath Communications Supplement , 2023 2023
Estimating the spatial distribution of possible livestock production level using a mathematical model and the SMAP soil moisture data: The case of Botswana AA Ejigu, MD Asfaw, SM Kassa Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience 2022 , 2022 2022 Citations: 4
Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia BA Ejigu, MD Asfaw, L Cavalerie, T Abebaw, M Nanyingi, M Baylis PloS one 16 (11), e0259874 , 2021 2021 Citations: 25
Stochastic plant–herbivore interaction model with Allee effect MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu Journal of Mathematical Biology 79 (6), 2183-2209 , 2019 2019 Citations: 15
Effects of temperature and rainfall in plant–herbivore interactions at different altitude MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu, W Bewket Ecological modelling 406, 50-59 , 2019 2019 Citations: 41
Mathematical Analysis of Plant-Herbivore Interaction: With Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Ethiopian Climate M Debalike Addis Ababa University , 2018 2018
Impact of human behavior on ITNs control strategies to prevent the spread of vector borne diseases MD Asfaw, B Buonomo, SM Kassa Atti della Accademia Peloritana dei Pericolanti-Classe di Scienze Fisiche … , 2018 2018 Citations: 7
Co-existence thresholds in the dynamics of the plant–herbivore interaction with Allee effect and harvest MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu International journal of Biomathematics 11 (04), 1850057 , 2018 2018 Citations: 24
Threshold dynamics of the plant-herbivore interaction with Allee effect MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST) , 2017 2017 Citations: 1
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Effects of temperature and rainfall in plant–herbivore interactions at different altitude MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu, W Bewket Ecological modelling 406, 50-59 , 2019 2019 Citations: 41
Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia BA Ejigu, MD Asfaw, L Cavalerie, T Abebaw, M Nanyingi, M Baylis PloS one 16 (11), e0259874 , 2021 2021 Citations: 25
Co-existence thresholds in the dynamics of the plant–herbivore interaction with Allee effect and harvest MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu International journal of Biomathematics 11 (04), 1850057 , 2018 2018 Citations: 24
Stochastic plant–herbivore interaction model with Allee effect MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu Journal of Mathematical Biology 79 (6), 2183-2209 , 2019 2019 Citations: 15
Modeling on cost-effectiveness of monkeypox disease control strategies with consideration of environmental transmission effects in the presence of vaccination TD Awoke, SM Kassa, YA Terefe, MD Asfaw Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 10 (5), 6105-6132 , 2024 2024 Citations: 11
Stochastic and deterministic models for Rubella dynamics with two doses of vaccination and vertical transmission GT Tilahun, TM Tolasa, MD Asfaw, GA Wole Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2024 (1), 9697951 , 2024 2024 Citations: 7
Impact of human behavior on ITNs control strategies to prevent the spread of vector borne diseases MD Asfaw, B Buonomo, SM Kassa Atti della Accademia Peloritana dei Pericolanti-Classe di Scienze Fisiche … , 2018 2018 Citations: 7
Estimating the spatial distribution of possible livestock production level using a mathematical model and the SMAP soil moisture data: The case of Botswana AA Ejigu, MD Asfaw, SM Kassa Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience 2022 , 2022 2022 Citations: 4
The use of an imperfect vaccination and awareness campaign in the control of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea infection: A mathematical modelling perspective YA Terefe, SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, C Venter Applied Mathematical Modelling 135, 149-172 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Modeling natural forage dependent livestock production in arid and semi-arid regions: analysis of seasonal soil moisture variability and environmental factors SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, AA Ejigu, GM Tsidu Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 10 (3), 3645-3663 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Analysis of a Fractional‐Order Mathematical Model on Crime Dynamics Incorporating Police Force and Rehabilitation W Adel, M Izadi, SW Teklu, MD Asfaw Journal of Mathematics 2026 (1), 1372780 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Modelling human response to information in voluntary vaccination behaviour using epidemic data B Buonomo, R Della Marca, MD Asfaw Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 22 (5), 1185-1205 , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Threshold dynamics of the plant-herbivore interaction with Allee effect MD Asfaw, SM Kassa, EM Lungu Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST) , 2017 2017 Citations: 1
HIV/AIDS compartmental model analysis with drug resistance treatment, vertical transmission, and optimal control theory OJ Peter, SW Teklu, GB Balogun, G Bolarin, MD Asfaw Scientific Reports 15 (1), 44156 , 2025 2025
Impact of self-protection measures to reduce antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea infection YA Terefe, SM Kassa, MD Asfaw, C Venter Biomath Communications Supplement , 2023 2023
Mathematical Analysis of Plant-Herbivore Interaction: With Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Ethiopian Climate M Debalike Addis Ababa University , 2018 2018
