Ph.D., Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS
Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Computers in Earth Sciences, Oceanography
68
Scopus Publications
3237
Scholar Citations
25
Scholar h-index
42
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
Robust deep learning-based downscaling of mean and extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent Midhun Murukesh, Pankaj Kumar Environmental Research Climate, 2026 Downscaling bridges the gap between coarse-resolution global climate models and local impacts by improving the representation of regional variability and localized extremes. However, precipitation downscaling remains challenging due to its stochastic nature and highly skewed distribution. In this study, we investigate the generalization capability of a deep learning approach, the Super-Resolution Deep Residual Network (SRDRN), for gridded precipitation downscaling over the Indian subcontinent, considering four distinct regions: Central India (CI), Southern Peninsular India (SP), Northwest India (NW), and Northeast India (NE), with NE chosen as the transfer domain. The SRDRN is trained using samples from CI, SP, and NW with three loss functions: mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and weighted MAE (WMAE), resulting in three model variants. All variants consistently outperform the baseline bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method across standard pixel-wise metrics, including Kling–Gupta efficiency, root MSE (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS), and effectively capture localized extreme precipitation, preserving key indices such as the 99th percentile magnitude (R99), monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1Day), consecutive wet days (CWDs), consecutive dry days (CDDs), and the annual count of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm). Among the variants, SRDRN-WMAE shows the highest skill in representing extreme precipitation intensity, while SRDRN-MAE provides the most balanced performance across both intensity-based and persistence-based indices. In a zero-shot transfer setting, all SRDRN variants applied over NE without any domain-specific training consistently outperform BCSD, especially in capturing extreme precipitation, despite BCSD being explicitly calibrated for the NE region. The results indicate that SRDRN models learn transferable representations of precipitation structure that generalize effectively beyond their training domains. Overall, the results demonstrate that SRDRN is a robust, generalizable, and computationally efficient framework for high-resolution precipitation downscaling, with strong potential for applications in data-sparse and climatologically complex regions.
Quantifying potential forestation-induced variability in land surface temperature across India: a percentile-based and class-specific assessment Jyoti Sharma, Pankaj Kumar Environmental Research Climate, 2025 Forestations play a critical role in regulating temperature, with impacts evident at both global and regional scales. Although global-scale studies often highlight the cooling effects of forests through biogeochemical processes, relatively less emphasis has been placed on their biogeophysical influence on surface temperature at finer spatial scales. Given that climate warming is a global phenomenon, its impacts are often intensified locally. Assessing forestation-induced changes in daytime land surface temperature (LST) is crucial for understanding regional climate mitigation, particularly in human-dominated landscapes such as India. This study investigated forestation-induced changes in daytime LST across 14 major forest classes in India. We propose a percentile-based framework that links forest class fractions at the 75th, 85th, and 95th thresholds with variations in daytime LST to better quantify forestation-induced temperature changes, effectively capturing seasonal and class-specific variability at fine spatial resolution. Additionally, random forest regression was employed to identify the climatic drivers influencing forest greenness. The results demonstrate that the effect of forestation on daytime LST varies considerably across forest classes and percentile thresholds, with both cooling and warming effects. Cooling effects dominate in nine of the 14 classes, ranging from substantial cooling (−0.081 °C) in littoral and swamp forests (mangroves) to notable warming (+0.095 °C) in montane dry temperate forests of the Himalaya. A clear spatial and ecological pattern emerges, with low-elevation forest types generally exhibiting cooling, while high-altitude forest types show a tendency toward warming. Spatially, forestation is generally associated with cooling between 12–25° N latitude, while regions outside this band tend to experience warming. Variability in forest greenness is primarily explained by latent heat flux (LE), which accounts for over 70% of the variation in classes 4, 5, and 6, and by net photosynthesis, which accounts for up to 69.42% in class 14. The strong association between LE and forest greenness reflects the underlying coupling between evapotranspiration and photosynthetic activity in actively transpiring canopies. Additional influences of precipitation dynamics, drought conditions, and soil moisture availability further highlight the multifactorial regulation of leaf area index, an indicator of vegetation greenness. The study demonstrates that LST responses to forestation depend strongly on forest type and elevation. Low-elevation tropical and subtropical forests in central India cool the surface via enhanced evapotranspiration, while high-altitude temperate forests show localized warming, underscoring forest functional diversity in regional climate regulation.
Projected climatic exposure and velocities of precipitation extremes over India and its biogeographic zones Disha Sachan, Amita Kumari, Pankaj Kumar International Journal of Climatology, 2024 Climate change is leading to alterations in the dynamic and thermodynamic climate systems worldwide, including the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which supports more than a billion population and drives the Indian economy. The anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented transformations in the natural and ecological systems, such as the increased probability of precipitation extremes, changes in their frequency, duration and spatial variabilities. This current study aims to project the regional landscape‐based metric, velocity of climate change (VoCC) and associated climatic exposure regarding precipitation extremes (PEs) for India and its different biogeographic zones. The climate velocities of mean precipitation, 95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles of precipitation for the ISM season are presented for the historical and three projected time slices under the RCP8.5 scenario. ROM, a state‐of‐the‐art regional earth system model over the CORDEX‐South Asia domain, was used in the study. It was observed that the intense and very intense rainfall (95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles) was enhanced over most of the study region in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future. The intense rainfall exhibited higher climate velocity than the mean and very intense precipitation in the near‐future. The southern part of the Indian subcontinent usually displayed positive VoCC values for the historical and near‐future time slices compared to the northern part of the Indian peninsula, particularly the intense and very intense precipitation. The climatic exposure for all‐India was also higher in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future, especially for the intense rainfall followed by the mean and very intense rainfall. These results suggest the need for focusing the adaptation and mitigation measures towards managing the near‐term impacts of PEs in relation to the long‐term impacts, especially on the country's diverse flora.
Shifting climate and the associated impacts on regional biodiversity: a present and future outlook from the Indian subcontinent Disha Sachan, Pankaj Kumar Environmental Research Letters, 2024 Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the decline of global biodiversity and disrupts ecosystem functioning, forcing terrestrial and aquatic species to change their ranges, phenology, physiology, and morphology. In our study, we have employed univariate and a newly-defined vector-algebra-derived multivariate estimate of the velocity of climate change (VoCC) derived from near-surface temperature and total precipitation to present the historical (1980–2005) and projected (2020–2097) shifts in the climate space over the Indian subcontinent. The multivariate VoCC was further used to derive climatic divergence (stress) and residence time of eight representative protected areas (PAs). VoCC is a versatile metric that approximates the ‘required’ migration speeds for the species. Our results from observations (CRU, ERA5) and model simulations (CMIP5, Regional Earth System Model) show that regions with relatively flatter terrain, such as Deserts, Semi-Arid, Deccan Peninsula and Gangetic Plains, displayed the highest historical velocities in the range of 2–15 km yr−1, which are also projected to increase in the future period to range of 4–20 km yr−1. The estimates of multivariate velocities were generally higher than the univariate velocities, leading to a better representation of shifts in real climate space. The high-resolution regional earth system model, ROM, performed better than the global circulations models in producing realistic VoCCs. The climatic stress (diverging vectors closer to 180 degrees) was higher for the Trans-Himalayas, Himalayas, Gangetic Plains, and parts of the Deccan Peninsula, and it is projected to increase in the near and mid future. The PAs with the shortest residence times were found to be Sundarbans (63 years) and Ranthambore (32 years), illustrating a severe challenge for conservationists under changing climate. Our results present the importance of employing multivariate velocities to simulate more realistic estimates of shifting climate and added benefits of measures of climatic divergence and stress on biodiversity.
Analyzing future marine cold spells in the tropical Indian Ocean: Insights from a regional Earth system model Anand Singh Dinesh, Pankaj Kumar, Alok Kumar Mishra, Lokesh Kumar Pandey, Mukul Tewari, William Cabos, Dmitry V. Sein Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024 In this study, a future projection of marine cold spells (MCSs) over the tropical Indian Ocean is made using a fully coupled regional Earth system model, namely ROM, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In both RCPs, the future MCS properties have been estimated across three distinct time intervals: the near future (NF; 2010–2039), the middle future (MF; 2040–2069), and the far future (FF; 2070–2099). The future MCS computations were examined with respect to fixed historical baseline periods and varying baseline periods. MCSs were frequent, intense, and prolonged during the historical period. ROM effectively simulated these historical MCS metrics and their trends and outperformed the forcing general circulation model as well as the multimodel ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. In the future, MCSs will cease to occur in ∼13% (4%), ∼56% (66%) and ∼69% (93%) of the area of the tropical Indian Ocean in the NF, MF, and FF respectively under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario using a fixed historical baseline period. This departure of MCSs led to the disappearance of events, first identified over the Arabian Sea in both RCPs. The decrease in net heat flux and increase in wind speed contribute to the genesis and severity of MCS events. Further, during the El Niño regime, the MCS events dramatically decrease due to the basin‐wide warming, but during the La Niña phase, the MCS intensity and spatial range increase. This study further investigates the sensitivity of MCSs with the choice of baseline period. Adopting varying baseline periods over time does not result in the disappearance of MCSs but does produce declining trends in MCS activity, highlighting the need for careful consideration in choosing a baseline period.
Challenges in Understanding the Variability of the Cryosphere in the Himalaya and Its Impact on Regional Water Resources Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Mohd. Farooq Azam, Tobias Bolch, Arindan Mandal, Smriti Srivastava, Pankaj Kumar, Rakesh Sahu, Perumal Jayaraman Navinkumar, Srinivasa Rao Tanniru, Aaquib Javed, Mohd Soheb, A. P. Dimri, Mohit Yadav, Balaji Devaraju, Pennan Chinnasamy, Manne Janga Reddy, Geetha Priya Murugesan, Manohar Arora, Sharad K. Jain, C. S. P. Ojha, Stephan Harrison, Jonathan Bamber Frontiers in Water, 2022
Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges C. Siderius, H. Biemans, A. Wiltshire, S. Rao, W.H.P. Franssen, P. Kumar, A.K. Gosain, M.T.H. van Vliet, D.N. Collins Science of the Total Environment, 2013
Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies Camilla Mathison, Andrew Wiltshire, A.P. Dimri, Pete Falloon, Daniela Jacob, Pankaj Kumar, Eddy Moors, Jeff Ridley, Christian Siderius, Markus Stoffel, T. Yasunari Science of the Total Environment, 2013
Can regional climate models represent the Indian monsoon? Philippe Lucas-Picher, Jens H. Christensen, Fahad Saeed, Pankaj Kumar, Shakeel Asharaf, Bodo Ahrens, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011
Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India Eddy J. Moors, Annemarie Groot, Hester Biemans, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Christian Siderius, Markus Stoffel, Christian Huggel, Andy Wiltshire, Camilla Mathison, Jeff Ridley, Daniela Jacob, Pankaj Kumar, Suruchi Bhadwal, Ashvin Gosain, David N. Collins Environmental Science and Policy, 2011
Characteristic changes in the strengthening western disturbances over Karakoram in recent decades A Javed, P Kumar Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 60 (3), 255-270 , 2024 2024 Citations: 4
An evaluation of digital filtering and 4DVar data assimilation in the WRF model towards the simulation of tropical cyclones G Tiwari, P Kumar, RP Gupta Advances in Space Research 73 (9), 4651-4668 , 2024 2024 Citations: 5
Analyzing future marine cold spells in the tropical Indian Ocean: Insights from a regional Earth system model AS Dinesh, P Kumar, AK Mishra, LK Pandey, M Tewari, W Cabos, ... Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150 (760), 1668-1685 , 2024 2024 Citations: 7
Comparative assessment of image super-resolution techniques for spatial downscaling of gridded rainfall data S Golla, M Murukesh, P Kumar SN Computer Science 5 (3), 312 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Marine heatwaves intensification, expansion and departure into the permanent state over the Tropical Indian Ocean: A regional earth system model assessment Pankaj Kumar, Anand Singh Dinesh, Alok Kumar Mishra, Lokesh Kumar Pandey ... 2023
Downscaling and reconstruction of high-resolution gridded rainfall data over India using deep learning-based generative adversarial network P Murukesh, M., Golla, S., Kumar Modelling Earth Systems and Environment , 2023 2023 Citations: 13
Future Climate Change in the Northern Indian Ocean as Simulated with a High-Resolution Regional Earth System Model P Sein, D V., Martyanov, S D., Dvornikov, A Y., Cabos, W., Ryabchenko, V A ... Climate Dynamics , 2023 2023 Citations: 21
Understanding spatiotemporal variability of drought in recent decades and its drivers over identified homogeneous regions of India A Saharwardi, M S., Kumar, P., Dubey, A K., & Kumari Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 2023 2023 Citations: 23
Pertaining the application of the 4DVar and 4DEnVar WRFDA techniques to simulate tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal P Tiwari, G., & Kumar Advances in Space Research 72 , 2023 2023 Citations: 5
The decline in western disturbance activity over Northern India in recent decades P Javed, A., Anshuman, K., Kumar Climatic Change , 2023 2023 Citations: 12
Evaluation and future projection of the extreme precipitation over India and its homogeneous regions: A regional earth system model perspective P Kumari, A., & Kumar International Journal of Climatology , 2023 2023 Citations: 12
Impact of the Indian Ocean temperature-phytoplankton feedback on simulated South Asia climate D Sein, AY Dvornikov, S Martyanov, WD CabosNarvaez, V Ryabchenko, ... Authorea Preprints , 2022 2022 Citations: 2
Predictive skill comparative assessment of WRF 4DVar and 3DVar data assimilation: An Indian Ocean tropical cyclone case study P Tiwari, G. & Kumar Atmospheric Research 277 , 2022 2022 Citations: 21
Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India MS Sachan, D., Kumar, P.*, Saharwardi Climatic Change 173 , 2022 2022 Citations: 6
The appraisal of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean: An overview of different approaches and the involvement of Earth’s components P Tiwari, G., Kumar, P.*, & Tiwari Frontiers in Earth Science 10 , 2022 2022 Citations: 18
Projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon onset using a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model AK Khandare, A.M., Dubey, A.K., Kumar, P., Mishra Theoretical and Applied Climatology 150 , 2022 2022 Citations: 3
Demonstrating the asymmetry of the Indian Ocean Dipole response in regional earth system model of CORDEX-SA W Mishra, A. K., Kumar, P., Dubey, A. K., Jha, S. K., Sein, D. V., & Cabos Atmospheric Research 273 , 2022 2022 Citations: 9
Regional earth system model for CORDEX-South Asia: A comparative assessment of RESM and ESM over the tropical Indian Ocean D Kumar, P.*, Mallick, S., Mishra, A. K., Dubey, A. K., Tiwari, G., Sein, D ... International Journal of Climatology , 2022 2022 Citations: 3
Measuring the control of landscape modifications on surface temperature in India CS Lal, P., Dubey, A K., Kumar, A., Kumar, P. & Dwivedi Geocarto International, 15736-15753 , 2022 2022 Citations: 12
Does the recent revival of western disturbances govern the Karakoram anomaly? A Javed, P Kumar, KI Hodges, DV Sein, AK Dubey, G Tiwari Journal of Climate 35 (13), 4383-4402 , 2022 2022 Citations: 26
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions D Jacob, A Elizalde, A Haensler, S Hagemann, P Kumar, R Podzun, ... Atmosphere 3 (1), 181-199 , 2012 2012 Citations: 346
Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis‐à‐vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode RH Kripalani, P Kumar International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological … , 2004 2004 Citations: 275
Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations F Tangang, JX Chung, L Juneng, Supari, E Salimun, ST Ngai, ... Climate Dynamics 55 (5), 1247-1267 , 2020 2020 Citations: 207
Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach P Kumar, A Wiltshire, C Mathison, S Asharaf, B Ahrens, P Lucas-Picher, ... Science of the Total Environment 468, S18-S30 , 2013 2013 Citations: 206
Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India EJ Moors, A Groot, H Biemans, CT van Scheltinga, C Siderius, M Stoffel, ... Environmental Science & Policy 14 (7), 758-769 , 2011 2011 Citations: 182
Can regional climate models represent the Indian monsoon? P Lucas-Picher, JH Christensen, F Saeed, P Kumar, S Asharaf, B Ahrens, ... Journal of Hydrometeorology 12 (5), 849-868 , 2011 2011 Citations: 173
On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia P Kumar, K Rupa Kumar, M Rajeevan, AK Sahai Climate Dynamics 28 (6), 649-660 , 2007 2007 Citations: 165
How does a regional climate model modify the projected climate change signal of the driving GCM: a study over different CORDEX regions using REMO C Teichmann, B Eggert, A Elizalde, A Haensler, D Jacob, P Kumar, ... Atmosphere 4 (2), 214-236 , 2013 2013 Citations: 162
Future water resources for food production in five South Asian river basins and potential for adaptation—A modeling study H Biemans, LH Speelman, F Ludwig, EJ Moors, AJ Wiltshire, P Kumar, ... Science of the Total Environment 468, S117-S131 , 2013 2013 Citations: 144
Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges C Siderius, H Biemans, A Wiltshire, S Rao, WHP Franssen, P Kumar, ... Science of the Total Environment 468, S93-S101 , 2013 2013 Citations: 141
Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas AP Dimri, T Yasunari, A Wiltshire, P Kumar, C Mathison, J Ridley, D Jacob Science of the Total Environment 468, S36-S47 , 2013 2013 Citations: 125
Response of Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers to climate variability and climatic change: A regional climate model assessment P Kumar, S Kotlarski, C Mosely, K Sieck, H Frey, M Stoffel, D Jacob Geophysical Research Letters , 2015 2015 Citations: 99
Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies C Mathison, A Wiltshire, AP Dimri, P Falloon, D Jacob, P Kumar, E Moors, ... Science of the Total Environment 468, S4-S17 , 2013 2013 Citations: 97
Snowfall variability dictates glacier mass balance variability in Himalaya-Karakoram P Kumar, MS Saharwardi, A Banerjee, MF Azam, AK Dubey, ... Scientific reports 9 (1), 18192 , 2019 2019 Citations: 83
Present and future projections of heatwave hazard-risk over India: A regional earth system model assessment AK Dubey, P Lal, P Kumar, A Kumar, AY Dvornikov Environmental research 201, 111573 , 2021 2021 Citations: 82
Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models N Mittal, A Mishra, R Singh, P Kumar Climatic change 123 (2), 273-286 , 2014 2014 Citations: 61
Understanding the hot season dynamics and variability across India AK Dubey, P Kumar, MS Saharwardi, A Javed Weather and Climate Extremes 32, 100317 , 2021 2021 Citations: 47
Future drought changes and associated uncertainty over the homogenous regions of India: a multimodel approach MS Saharwardi, P Kumar International Journal of Climatology 42 (1), 652-670 , 2022 2022 Citations: 46
Understanding the post‐monsoon tropical cyclone variability and trend over the Bay of Bengal during the satellite era G Tiwari, A Rameshan, P Kumar, A Javed, AK Mishra Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 (742), 1-14 , 2022 2022 Citations: 41
Assessing tropical cyclones characteristics over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in the recent decades A Tiwari, G., Kumar, P., Javed, A., Mishra, A. K., Routray Meteorology & Atmospheric Physics 134 , 2022 2022 Citations: 35