Joao Alexandre Almeida dos Santos

@maretec.org

Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon
MARETEC - Marine, Environment and Technology Center

Joao Alexandre Almeida dos Santos


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https://researchid.co/jsantos1988

RESEARCH INTERESTS

Main research interests: Energy systems; energy accounting variables (focus on the thermodynamics concepts of exergy and useful work/exergy) and their links to economic growth and energy demand at the sectoral and country-level; energy and exergy efficiency analysis, namely primary-to-final and fina
9

Scopus Publications

275

Scholar Citations

5

Scholar h-index

4

Scholar i10-index

Scopus Publications

  • An aggregate price for energy services: Useful exergy as an intermediate flow in a two-sector model of the economy
    João Santos, Tânia Sousa, André Serrenho, Tiago Domingos
    Ecological Economics, 2025
  • How Do Bird Population Trends Relate to Human Pressures Compared to Economic Growth?
    Leonor Baptista, Tiago Domingos, João Santos, Vânia Proença
    Sustainability Switzerland, 2025
    Biodiversity loss is a global environmental concern, mainly driven by human-induced factors, encompassing both direct and indirect drivers. This study investigates the long-term relationship between either the Human Footprint Index (HFI), which measures the extent of human pressures (i.e., direct drivers), or the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of economic growth (i.e., indirect driver) and biodiversity change, using bird population trends as indicators. The analysis was based on time-series data for Portugal (2004–2023) aggregated at national and sub-national scales, representative of different socio-economic contexts. Multi-species indices were regressed against either the HFI or GDP using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to identify long-run relationships. Bird population trends varied by species group (common, agricultural, and forest birds) and socio-economic context underscoring the importance of sub-national assessments. The HFI and GDP had varying predictive value across species groups and socio-economic contexts, with the HFI showing greater consistency, particularly as a predictor for agricultural birds. While most models showed a negative association between species abundance and either the HFI or GDP, revealing a signal of socio-economic pressures on bird populations at sub-national scales, some models suggested mixed results, indicating that conservation policies must take local contexts into account.
  • The Impact of Energy Efficiency on Economic Growth: Application of the MARCO Model to the Portuguese Economy 1960–2014
    João Santos, Miguel Viana, Jaime Nieto, Paul E. Brockway, Marco Sakai, et al.
    Energies, 2024
    The benefits of energy efficiency are recognized in multiple socio-economic spheres. Still, the quantitative impact on macroeconomic performance is not fully understood, as modeling tools are not thermodynamically consistent—failing to explicitly include the useful stage of energy flows and/or thermodynamic efficiencies in primary–final–useful energy transformations. Misspecification in the link between energy use and the economy underplays the role of energy use and efficiency in economic growth. In this work, we develop and implement the Macroeconometric Resource Consumption model for Portugal (MARCO-PT), 1960–2014. Based on the post-Keynesian framework developed for the United Kingdom (MARCO-UK), our model explicitly includes thermodynamic energy efficiency, extending the analysis to the useful stage of energy flows. The model’s stochastic equations are econometrically estimated. The historical influence of key variables—namely thermodynamic energy efficiency—on economic output is assessed through counterfactual simulations and computation of year-by-year output elasticities. The MARCO-PT model adequately describes the historical behavior of endogenous variables. Although its influence has decreased over time, thermodynamic efficiency has consistently been the major contributor to economic growth between 1960–2014, with an average output elasticity of 0.46. Total useful exergy is also a major contributing factor, with an average output elasticity of 0.29. Both have a higher influence than capital, labor, or other energy variables (final energy, prices). An adequate integration of thermodynamic efficiency is thus crucial for macroeconomic models.
  • Useful Exergy as an Intermediate Input in a Two-Sector Model of the United States Economy
    João Gonçalves, João Santos, Matthew Heun, Paul E. Brockway, Tiago Domingos
    Energies, 2024
    Conventional economic growth models treat production/consumption as abstractions linked only by money flows, disregarding their connection to the physical world. Nevertheless, the existing literature suggests that energy flows can influence production and links useful exergy prices with economic growth. Useful exergy is energy measured at the stage where it produces an end-use (and is a measurement of energy quality). Not all approaches in the literature use this metric and they often consider energy as a primary input (despite it being an intermediate input). We explore the relationship between energy flows and economic growth for the US through a framework where useful exergy, the output of an “extended energy sector” (where all effects of increasing primary-to-final-to-useful exergy efficiency are located), is an intermediate input for a “non-energy sector”. Together, they encompass the entire economy. We conclude that the share of investment in the extended energy sector grew with the overall economic growth throughout 1960–2020, while the labour share decreased. The non-energy sector contributed the largest share of consumption, exports, imports and labour. In recent years, the energy sector has overtaken it in terms of investment. Our two-sector model has important implications for current climate policy, namely regarding the Integrated Assessment Models on which it is based.
  • A Comprehensive Societal Energy Return on Investment Study of Portugal Reveals a Low but Stable Value
    Marco Vittorio Ecclesia, João Santos, Paul E. Brockway, Tiago Domingos
    Energies, 2022
    Energy return on investment (EROI) is a ratio of the energy obtained in relation to the energy used to extract/produce it. The EROI of fossil fuels is globally decreasing. What do the declining EROIs of energy sources imply for society as a whole? We answer this question by proposing a novel EROI measure that describes, through one parameter, the efficiency of a society in managing energy resources over time. Our comprehensive societal EROI measure was developed by (1) expanding the boundaries of the analysis up to the useful stage; (2) estimating the amount of energy embodied in the energy-converting capital; (3) considering non-conventional sources such as the muscle work of humans and draught animals; and (4) considering the influence of imported and exported energy. We computed the new EROI for Portugal as a case study. We find a considerably lower EROI value, at around 3, compared to those currently available, which is stable over a long-time range (1960–2014). This suggests an independence of EROI from economic growth. When estimated at the final stage, using conventional methods (i.e., without applying the four novelties here introduced), we find a declining societal EROI. Therefore, our results imply that the production of new and more efficient final-to-useful energy converting capital has historically kept societal EROI around a stable value by offsetting the effects of the changing returns of energy sources at the primary and final stages. This will be crucial in the successful transition to renewables.
  • Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014
    João Santos, Afonso S. Borges, Tiago Domingos
    Energy Economics, 2021
  • Useful Exergy Is Key in Obtaining Plausible Aggregate Production Functions and Recognizing the Role of Energy in Economic Growth: Portugal 1960–2009
    João Santos, Tiago Domingos, Tânia Sousa, Miguel St. Aubyn
    Ecological Economics, 2018
  • Energy-extended CES aggregate production: Current aspects of their specification and econometric estimation
    Paul Brockway, Matthew Heun, João Santos, John Barrett
    Energies, 2017
    Capital–labour–energy Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functions and their estimated parameters now form a key part of energy–economy models which inform energy and emissions policy. However, the collation and guidance as to the specification and estimation choices involved with such energy-extended CES functions is disparate. This risks poorly specified and estimated CES functions, with knock-on implications for downstream energy–economic models and climate policy. In response, as a first step, this paper assembles in one place the major considerations involved in the empirical estimation of these CES functions. Discussions of the choices and their implications lead to recommendations for CES empiricists. The extensive bibliography allows those interested to dig deeper into any aspect of the CES parameter estimation process.
  • From theory to econometrics to energy policy: Cautionary tales for policymaking using aggregate production functions
    Matthew Heun, João Santos, Paul Brockway, Randall Pruim, Tiago Domingos, et al.
    Energies, 2017
    This dataset contains the empirical datasets undertaken for the following Energies journal article: Heun, M.K., J. Santos, Brockway, P.E., Prium, R., Domingos, T., Sakai, M. From theory to econometrics to energy policy: Cautionary tales for policymaking using aggregate production functions. Energies 2017, 10, 203. This data repository contains the following files Excel file • Cautionary_Tales.xlsx: the csv file sheets collated into one excel file csv files We also provide 10 individual csv files (which match those in the excel file): • Readme.txt: text file to be read at the start • Fig-3-PT-QA.csv: indexed k, l, and e, quality-adjusted factors of production for Portugal as shown in Figure 3 • Fig-3-PT-UA.csv: indexed k, l, and e, quality-adjusted factors of production for Portugal as shown in Figure 3 • Fig-3-UK-QA.csv: indexed k, l, and e, unadjusted factors of production for the United Kingdom as shown in Figure 3 • Fig-3-UK-UA.csv: indexed k, l, and e, unadjusted factors of production for the United Kingdom as shown in Figure 3 • Fig-4-GDP.csv: Data behind Figure 4 • Table-S-1.csv: Data from Table S.1 of the supplementary information • Table-S-2.csv: Data from Table S.2 of the supplementary information • Table-S-3.csv: Data from Table S.3 of the supplementary information. • PT-raw-data.csv: unadjusted portugal data (from which the indexed data was calculated) for QA labor, primary exergy, useful exergy, QA capital. • UK-raw-data.csv: unadjusted UK data (from which the indexed data was calculated) for QA labor, primary exergy, useful exergy. Data sources can be found in Table 3 of the paper. For clarity, the UK-QA capital service indexed data was calculated based on the growth rate data given in Table A1, VICS growth rates with RD

RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Reducing the Measure of our Ignorance: Useful Exergy's Explanatory Power for TFP and Growth in a normalized CES Supply-Side Approach
    J Salg, J Santos, T Domingos
    Available at SSRN 5933436 , 2025
    2025
  • An aggregate price for energy services: Useful exergy as an intermediate flow in a two-sector model of the economy
    J Santos, T Sousa, A Serrenho, T Domingos
    Ecological Economics 236, 108665 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 3
  • How Do Bird Population Trends Relate to Human Pressures Compared to Economic Growth?
    L Baptista, T Domingos, J Santos, V Proença
    Sustainability 17 (8), 3506 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • The impact of energy efficiency on economic growth: application of the MARCO model to the portuguese economy 1960–2014
    J Santos, M Viana, J Nieto, PE Brockway, M Sakai, T Domingos
    Energies 17 (11), 2688 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 3
  • Useful Exergy as an Intermediate Input in a Two-Sector Model of the United States Economy
    J Gonçalves, J Santos, M Heun, PE Brockway, T Domingos
    Energies 17 (6), 1481 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 1
  • Useful exergy as an intermediate input in a two-sectormodel of the economy for the US
    J Gonçalves, J Santos, T Domingos
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Death to the two-factor CES function: identifying energy’s importance for economic growth
    J Salg, J Santos, T Domingos
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Global convergence in energy intensity of GDP comparing the primary, final, and useful stages of energy and exergy flows
    J Santos, PE Brockway, T Domingos, MK Heun
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Charting sustainable futures: insights from the MEET 2030 Project
    R da Silva Vieira, A Alvarenga, J Santos, L Felício, LA Serra, ...
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • The impact o energy efficiency on past economic growth: application of the macroeconometric resource consumption (MARCO-PT) model to the portuguese economy, 1960-2014
    J Santos, T Domingos, JN Vega, PE Brockway, M Sakai
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • A comprehensive societal energy return on investment study of Portugal reveals a low but stable value
    MV Ecclesia, J Santos, PE Brockway, T Domingos
    Energies 15 (10), 3549 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 5
  • Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014
    J Santos, AS Borges, T Domingos
    Energy Economics 101, 105407 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 66
  • Development of a two-sector model with an extended energy sector and application to Portugal (1960-2014)
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, A Serrenho
    2018
    Citations: 4
  • Useful exergy is key in obtaining plausible aggregate production functions and recognizing the role of energy in economic growth: Portugal 1960–2009
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, MS Aubyn
    Ecological Economics 148, 103-120 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 75
  • From theory to econometrics to energy policy: Cautionary tales for policymaking using aggregate production functions
    MK Heun, J Santos, PE Brockway, R Pruim, T Domingos, M Sakai
    Energies 10 (2), 203 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 44
  • Energy-extended CES aggregate production: Current aspects of their specification and econometric estimation
    PE Brockway, MK Heun, J Santos, JR Barrett
    Energies 10 (2), 202 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 55
  • Towards A Carbon Neutral Economy How Is Portugal Going to Create Employment and Grow
    A Alvarenga, C Marta-Pedroso, J Santos, L Felício, LA Serra, MR Palha, ...
    MEET2030, Business, Climate Change and Economic Growth 109 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 7
  • Empirical datasets for Energies journal article'From theory to econometrics to energy policy: Cautionary tales for policymaking using aggregate production functions'
    M Heun, J Santos, PE Brockway, R Pruim, T Domingos, M Sakai
    University of Leeds , 2017
    2017
  • Relatório Final da Avaliação Ex-post do Programa de Desenvolvimento Rural do Continente 2007-2013 (ProDeR)
    T Domingos, A Oliveira das Neves, C Marta-Pedroso, L Laporta, ...
    Estudo encomendado pela Autoridade de Gestão do ProDeR. Instituto Superior … , 2016
    2016
    Citations: 5
  • Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor and useful exergy …
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, M St Aubyn
    2016
    Citations: 5

MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Useful exergy is key in obtaining plausible aggregate production functions and recognizing the role of energy in economic growth: Portugal 1960–2009
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, MS Aubyn
    Ecological Economics 148, 103-120 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 75
  • Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014
    J Santos, AS Borges, T Domingos
    Energy Economics 101, 105407 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 66
  • Energy-extended CES aggregate production: Current aspects of their specification and econometric estimation
    PE Brockway, MK Heun, J Santos, JR Barrett
    Energies 10 (2), 202 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 55
  • From theory to econometrics to energy policy: Cautionary tales for policymaking using aggregate production functions
    MK Heun, J Santos, PE Brockway, R Pruim, T Domingos, M Sakai
    Energies 10 (2), 203 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 44
  • Towards A Carbon Neutral Economy How Is Portugal Going to Create Employment and Grow
    A Alvarenga, C Marta-Pedroso, J Santos, L Felício, LA Serra, MR Palha, ...
    MEET2030, Business, Climate Change and Economic Growth 109 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 7
  • A comprehensive societal energy return on investment study of Portugal reveals a low but stable value
    MV Ecclesia, J Santos, PE Brockway, T Domingos
    Energies 15 (10), 3549 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 5
  • Relatório Final da Avaliação Ex-post do Programa de Desenvolvimento Rural do Continente 2007-2013 (ProDeR)
    T Domingos, A Oliveira das Neves, C Marta-Pedroso, L Laporta, ...
    Estudo encomendado pela Autoridade de Gestão do ProDeR. Instituto Superior … , 2016
    2016
    Citations: 5
  • Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor and useful exergy …
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, M St Aubyn
    2016
    Citations: 5
  • Development of a two-sector model with an extended energy sector and application to Portugal (1960-2014)
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, A Serrenho
    2018
    Citations: 4
  • An aggregate price for energy services: Useful exergy as an intermediate flow in a two-sector model of the economy
    J Santos, T Sousa, A Serrenho, T Domingos
    Ecological Economics 236, 108665 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 3
  • The impact of energy efficiency on economic growth: application of the MARCO model to the portuguese economy 1960–2014
    J Santos, M Viana, J Nieto, PE Brockway, M Sakai, T Domingos
    Energies 17 (11), 2688 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 3
  • How Do Bird Population Trends Relate to Human Pressures Compared to Economic Growth?
    L Baptista, T Domingos, J Santos, V Proença
    Sustainability 17 (8), 3506 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Useful Exergy as an Intermediate Input in a Two-Sector Model of the United States Economy
    J Gonçalves, J Santos, M Heun, PE Brockway, T Domingos
    Energies 17 (6), 1481 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 1
  • Econometric estimation of useful exergy augmented production functions: case study for Portugal 1960-2009
    J Santos, T Domingos, T Sousa, MS Aubyn
    Proceedings of the Energy Economics Iberian Conference 2016 (EEIC/CIEE), 604 , 2016
    2016
    Citations: 1
  • Reducing the Measure of our Ignorance: Useful Exergy's Explanatory Power for TFP and Growth in a normalized CES Supply-Side Approach
    J Salg, J Santos, T Domingos
    Available at SSRN 5933436 , 2025
    2025
  • Useful exergy as an intermediate input in a two-sectormodel of the economy for the US
    J Gonçalves, J Santos, T Domingos
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Death to the two-factor CES function: identifying energy’s importance for economic growth
    J Salg, J Santos, T Domingos
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Global convergence in energy intensity of GDP comparing the primary, final, and useful stages of energy and exergy flows
    J Santos, PE Brockway, T Domingos, MK Heun
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • Charting sustainable futures: insights from the MEET 2030 Project
    R da Silva Vieira, A Alvarenga, J Santos, L Felício, LA Serra, ...
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024
  • The impact o energy efficiency on past economic growth: application of the macroeconometric resource consumption (MARCO-PT) model to the portuguese economy, 1960-2014
    J Santos, T Domingos, JN Vega, PE Brockway, M Sakai
    ESEE-Degrowth 2024: Science, Technology, and Innovation beyond growth … , 2024
    2024