Coastal process understanding through automated identification of recurring surface dynamics in permanent laser scanning data of a sandy beach Daan Hulskemper, José A. Á. Antolínez, Roderik Lindenbergh, Katharina Anders Earth Surface Dynamics, 2026 Four-dimensional (4D) topographic datasets are increasingly available at high spatial and temporal resolution, particularly from permanent terrestrial laser scanning (PLS) time series. These data offer unprecedented opportunities to analyse rapid and complex morphological processes occurring in sandy coastal environments, such as sandbar welding or bulldozer activity, as well as their longer-term impacts on sandy beaches. However, studying these processes requires the extraction and recognition of recurrent topographical surface dynamics across time, which in turn demands novel, automated methods. This study presents a novel workflow that combines 4D objects-by-change (4D-OBCs) with unsupervised classification using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) and hierarchical clustering. Applied to a three-year PLS time series comprising 21 194 hourly point clouds, the method identifies 4412 instances of short-term surface dynamics. These are organized into two SOMs (64 nodes each) and further grouped into 31 clusters representing distinct dynamic types, such as berm deposition, large-scale backshore erosion, and human interventions (e.g., bulldozer activity). The classification results enable detailed spatiotemporal analyses of coastal morphodynamics. The SOM topology reveals seasonal patterns in surface activity, where, for example, winter is dominated by erosional activity over the whole beach but depositional activity mainly occurs in the intertidal area. The broader clusters facilitate interpretation of environmental responses and identification of changes in cross-shore zonation of types of dynamics, like berm formation. This approach demonstrates the potential of integrating PLS and unsupervised learning to characterize complex surface dynamics, through a fully automated extraction and classification workflow. While the interpretation of clusters and their relation to environmental variables in this study is performed through expert-based analysis, the methods provide a framework for targeted, data-driven investigation and prediction of morphodynamic processes in high-resolution 4D remote sensing datasets.
Tail dependence of surge height and wind speed along the Dutch coast for storm clusters from large simulated datasets Paulina E. Kindermann, José A. Á. Antolínez, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles Natural Hazards, 2026 This study explores the statistical dependence between wind speed and surge height along the Dutch coast using a large synthetic dataset. Storms were clustered based on wind direction, tidal offset, wind rotation, tidal peak, surge and wind exceedance duration, resulting in 16 clusters per wind direction and per location. Apart from wind direction, comparing clusters revealed a limited impact of clustering based on these storm characteristics on the choice of the best-fitting copula model, suggesting sub-clustering may not be necessary for accurately representing the statistical dependence between extreme wind speeds and surge heights. The BB8 copula generally provided the best fit to the data. However, the observed upper tail dependence did not decrease to zero, particularly for western to northern wind directions, indicating non-negligible dependence in joint extremes of wind speed and surge height. Therefore, applying the BB8 copula (or any other copula model without upper tail dependence) may lead to underestimation of the flood risk, when applied in probabilistic analyses. The findings from this study provide valuable insights for refining hydraulic load models for reliability assessments and design of flood defenses.
Vulnerability of Key Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Future Erosion and Sea Level Rise Jakob C. Christiaanse, Sean Vitousek, Ad J. H. M. Reniers, José A. A. Antolínez Earth S Future, 2026 Threatened sea turtles rely on sandy beaches for nesting, linking their long‐term survival to global beach availability. However, beaches worldwide are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors and sea level rise (SLR). Reliable vulnerability assessments require understanding beach dynamics across multiple time scales, informed by long‐term coastal change records. While many nesting beaches lie in remote, data‐poor environments, recent advances in coastal remote sensing now allow us to monitor coastal change worldwide. Here, we combine satellite‐derived shorelines (CoastSat), shoreline modeling (CoSMoS‐COAST), and global data sets to investigate shoreline evolution and future vulnerability at nine globally important sea turtle nesting sites. We investigate seasonal and long‐term shoreline change, hindcast (1980–2024) and forecast (2025–2100) shoreline positions under various SLR scenarios, and quantify available accommodation space based on backbeach elevation and infrastructure footprints. We find that shoreline evolution and vulnerability vary considerably, with three sites showing historical accretion trends and four sites showing erosion. This demonstrates that the previously widely applied bathtub approach—adding SLR to a static beach profile—is not suitable to assess the vulnerability of sea turtle nesting beaches to erosion. Three eroding beaches emerge as particularly vulnerable due to projected shoreline retreat coupled with limited accommodation space. Despite significant uncertainties arising from long‐term shoreline projections, our results provide important insights into seasonal and long‐term morphodynamics, identify vulnerable nesting sites, and offer a comprehensive, transferable framework for assessing shoreline evolution and relative erosion vulnerability at other sites. Understanding these dynamics is crucial to inform conservation and management strategies to future‐proof these critical nesting habitats.
Spatial Clustering of Sea Level Hydrographs Across the Dutch Coast Mia Pupić Vurilj, José A. A. Antolínez, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles Coastal Research Library, 2026 Extreme sea level events pose significant risks to coastal regions, with non-tidal residuals (NTRs) being a primary driver in low-lying areas like the Netherlands, where shallow seas amplify their impact. This study investigates the spatial patterns of NTRs along the Dutch coast using time series clustering on historical NTR hydrographs. The design of hydraulic boundary conditions divides the Netherlands into three coastal regions. To evaluate whether this division sufficiently captures regional variability, three clustering scenarios (k = 3, k = 4, and k = 5) were explored. The analysis identified k = 5 as the optimal configuration based on the Davies-Bouldin index. This result emphasized the importance of fine-scale approaches to understanding regional spatial variations in NTR dynamics. Regional bathymetry and tide-surge interactions were explored as drivers of these spatial patterns. Southern stations near river systems and deeper waters displayed characteristics distinct from northern stations in the Wadden Sea, which are influenced by shallow tidal flats. Analysis of the M2 tidal constituent and the timing of NTR maxima relative to high tides underscored the role of tidal dynamics in shaping spatial clusters. Future research will focus on integrating spatio-temporal patterns and environmental drivers into clustering methodologies, providing deeper insights for coastal risk management and adaptation strategies.
Evaluation of Clustering Techniques for Revealing Dependence Between Wind Speed and Surge Height Paulina E. Kindermann, José A. A. Antolínez, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles Coastal Research Library, 2026 Extreme storms over the North Sea drive coastal flood risk in the Netherlands, causing high waves and extreme sea levels. Designing flood defenses requires accurate statistical extrapolation of hydraulic load conditions with return periods of 1,000 years or more. This is a challenging task given limited observational data. This study uses a large, simulated dataset (~9,000 years) to explore the statistical dependence between extreme wind speed u and surge height s . Storms were clustered using several techniques. Self-organizing maps (SOM) effectively captured physical relationships, such as the influence of wind direction and tidal offset on storm dynamics, however variability in statistical dependence between u and s for different clusters was better represented using manual clusters. Copula models were fitted to the cluster data, with the BB8 copula outperforming others. This study illustrates the potential of machine learning to identify patterns in large datasets while emphasizing the relevance of manual clustering approaches for revealing nuanced statistical dependencies critical to flood risk assessment.
Uncovering Causation of Short-Term Sandy Beach Surface Dynamics Measured by Permanent Laser Scanning Daan Hulskemper, Katharina Anders, José A. A. Antolínez, Roderik Lindenbergh Coastal Research Library, 2026 The causal drivers of short-term changes (days to months) in human-, wind-, and wave-driven sand transport on a sandy beach are not often considered in an integral and data-driven approach. However, improving current knowledge on (urban) sandy beach topographical change requires the incorporation of multi-scale, cross-sectional and human factors. In this research we process a time series of 21,194 hourly point clouds, obtained in a Permanent Terrestrial Laser Scanning setup. From this 3D time series we extract 5,102 short-term temporary surface dynamics, through a method called 4D objects-by-change (4D-OBCs). The causal drivers of two of these 4D-OBCs are investigated in detail. One is interpreted as an aeolian depositional surface dynamic (1), and one as a bulldozer deposit, that consecutively eroded under high wave energy conditions (2). The dynamics show clear correlation to a particular combination of wind direction and intensity (1), and wave height and wave period (2), indicating that point cloud time series derived 4D-OBCs are useful data to study causality of short-term surface dynamics of different origins. However, to study these surface dynamics systematically and derive statistical proof of causal relations we must consider multivariate correlations, as well as spatiotemporal dependence between sediment dynamics and larger scale morphological changes on the beach.
Predicting Shoreline Orientation on Diverse Coastal Environments Mayowa Basit Abdulsalam, Camilo Jaramillo, Lucas de Freitas, Mauricio González, José A. A. Antolínez Coastal Research Library, 2026 Coastal zones are highly dynamic environments shaped by various environmental forcing agents such as waves and nearshore currents operating across diverse spatio-temporal scales. For effective decision-making, coastal managers require simplified, computationally efficient models to predict future shoreline morphodynamics. Among the models developed over the years, equilibrium-based shoreline evolution models (EBSEMs) have garnered significant attention for their computational efficiency. However, their application has mainly been limited to microtidal sandy beaches when simulating shoreline orientation, necessitating further evaluation across broader coastal settings. This study investigates the applicability of EBSEMs in predicting shoreline rotational variability at two morphologically distinct sites: Narrabeen Beach, Australia, and Moncofa Beach, Spain. These sites differ in sediment size, tidal regimes, data sources, observation periods, and monitoring frequencies, providing a robust framework for model evaluation. Results demonstrate that the EBSEM successfully replicates the general trends of shoreline orientation variability on both sites, qualitatively and quantitatively. Seasonal rotation trends were accurately captured, emphasizing the model’s capability to operate across varying spatial and temporal scales. These findings further reinforced the capabilities of EBSEMs as practical tools for coastal management, particularly for predicting shoreline orientation changes under diverse environmental conditions.
Probabilistic Forecasting of Shoreline Evolution: A Case Study Using Genetic Algorithms Lucas de Freitas, Camilo Jaramillo, José A. A. Antolínez, Mauricio González, Raúl Medina Coastal Research Library, 2026 Sandy beach erosion is a pressing concern for coastal regions worldwide, driven by both natural processes and human-induced pressures. This study presents an ensemble modeling approach for predicting sandy shoreline dynamics using an equilibrium-based shoreline evolution model (EBSEM). A genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was employed to calibrate multiple parameter sets, capturing the inherent uncertainty in model parameters. The method was tested with a publicly available dataset from Tairua Beach (New Zealand), spanning 14 years of high-resolution shoreline measurements. Results reveal a near-linear relationship between the slope and intercept parameters governing equilibrium wave energy, and demonstrate that the best-fit solution generally lies within the ensemble range. Comparisons of ensemble simulations with observed data indicate strong agreement in both calibration and validation phases, although certain extreme accretion and erosion events were underestimated. Overall, this ensemble framework provides a robust tool for medium- to long-term shoreline predictions, bringing coastal managers with stochastic/probabilistic estimates of shoreline change, which can be useful in the assessment of resilience of adaptive strategies for risk mitigation.
Global Analysis of Storm Surge Seasonality Ayoola Apolola, Philip J. Ward, Timothy Tiggeloven, José A. Á. Antolínez, Wiebke Jäger, et al. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2025
The influence of climate variability on global storm surges A Apolola, PJ Ward, FJ Méndez, V Collado, T Tiggeloven, W Jäger, ... 2026
Coastal process understanding through automated identification of recurring surface dynamics in permanent laser scanning data of a sandy beach D Hulskemper, JAÁ Antolínez, R Lindenbergh, K Anders Earth Surface Dynamics 14 (3), 329-359 , 2026 2026
Salt march Leaf Area Index determination with AI driven aerial lidar and multispectral data fusion S Vos, T Blount, R Lindenbergh, J Antolinez, M Marani EGU26 , 2026 2026
Hybrid spectral downscaling and climate-driven variability of multimodal wave systems in the Gulf of Panama R Vallarino-Castillo, G Bellido, L Cagigal, V Negro-Valdecantos, ... EGU26 , 2026 2026
Vulnerability of key sea turtle nesting beaches to future erosion and sea level rise JC Christiaanse, S Vitousek, AJHM Reniers, JAA Antolínez Earth's Future 14 (3), e2025EF007191 , 2026 2026
Tail dependence of surge height and wind speed along the Dutch coast for storm clusters from large simulated datasets PE Kindermann, JAÁ Antolínez, O Morales-Nápoles Natural Hazards 122 (5), 196 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Navigating Complexity in Tidal Marsh Restoration: Hydrodynamic–Vegetation Interactions at Fir Island Farm N Villa, G Hood, JAA Antolínez, MC Stone 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting , 2026 2026
BlueMath: A Collaborative Open-Source Repository for Statistical Analysis and Fast, Efficient Hydrodynamic Emulators of Coastal Climate Hazards L Cagigal, J Tausia, FJ Mendez, V Fernandez, GB Prieto, JOA Cantos, ... 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting , 2026 2026
The influence of climate variability on global extreme sea level A Apolola, P Ward, T Tiggeloven, JAA Antolínez, FJ Mendez, S Muis 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting , 2026 2026
GreenSurge 2.0: A Scalable and Efficient Additive model for Storm Surge Modeling E Faugere, BP Díaz, L Cagigal, P Camus, V Fernandez, J Tausia, ... 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting , 2026 2026
Beyond understanding the role of far-field climate in the Gulf of Panama coastal dynamics: an analysis of long-term and seasonal variability of wave systems R Vallarino-Castillo, JAA Antolínez, V Negro-Valdecantos, ... Climate Dynamics 64 (2), 39 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Probabilistic forecasting of shoreline evolution: a case study using genetic algorithms L De Freitas Pereira, C Jaramillo Cardona, JAA Antolínez, ... 2026
Coastal process understanding through automated identification of recurring surface dynamics in permanent laser scanning data of a sandy beach DC Hulskemper, JAÁ Antolínez, R Lindenbergh, K Anders EGUsphere 2025, 1-41 , 2025 2025
Global analysis of storm surge seasonality A Apolola, PJ Ward, T Tiggeloven, JA Á. Antolínez, W Jäger, S Muis Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 130 (11), e2025JC022841 , 2025 2025
Beach groundwater response to ocean processes and rain on a mild-sloping barrier island: Implications for sea turtle nest flooding JC Christiaanse, JAA Antolínez, CD Marshall, J Figlus, TM Dellapenna, ... Coastal Engineering 201, 104795 , 2025 2025 Citations: 4
Aiding sea turtle conservation through coastal management JC Christiaanse, AJHM Reniers, SGJ Aarninkhof, EF Ostertag, R Nel, ... Frontiers in Marine Science 12, 1669885 , 2025 2025 Citations: 5
Benchmarking shoreline prediction models over multi-decadal timescales Y Mao, G Coco, S Vitousek, JAA Antolinez, G Azorakos, M Banno, ... Communications Earth & Environment 6 (1), 581 , 2025 2025 Citations: 13
Assessing shoreline orientation variation across diverse coastal environments MB Abdulsalam, C Jaramillo, L de Freitas, M González, JAÁ Antolínez Coastal Engineering 200, 104770 , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models J Montaño, G Coco, JAA Antolínez, T Beuzen, KR Bryan, L Cagigal, ... Scientific reports 10 (1), 2137 , 2020 2020 Citations: 189
Predicting climate driven coastlines with a simple and efficient multi‐scale model JAA Antolínez, FJ Méndez, D Anderson, P Ruggiero, GM Kaminsky Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , 2019 2019 Citations: 102
A Climate Index Optimized for Longshore Sediment Transport Reveals Interannual and Multidecadal Littoral Cell Rotations D Anderson, P Ruggiero, JAA Antolínez, FJ Méndez, J Allan Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 (8), 1958-1981 , 2018 2018 Citations: 84
A multiscale climate emulator for long‐term morphodynamics (MUSCLE‐morpho) JAA Antolínez, FJ Méndez, P Camus, S Vitousek, EM González, ... Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (1), 775-791 , 2016 2016 Citations: 82
Time‐Varying Emulator for Short and Long‐Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential D Anderson, A Rueda, L Cagigal, JAA Antolinez, FJ Mendez, P Ruggiero Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 124 (12), 9209-9234 , 2019 2019 Citations: 81
Wave attenuation through forests under extreme conditions BK van Wesenbeeck, G Wolters, JAA Antolínez, SA Kalloe, B Hofland, ... Scientific reports 12 (1), 1884 , 2022 2022 Citations: 78
A multimodal wave spectrum–based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate CA Hegermiller, JAA Antolinez, A Rueda, P Camus, J Perez, LH Erikson, ... Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2), 375-386 , 2017 2017 Citations: 68
HyCReWW: A Hybrid Coral Reef Wave and Water level metamodel A Rueda, L Cagigal, S Pearson, JAA Antolínez, C Storlazzi, ... Computers & geosciences 127, 85-90 , 2019 2019 Citations: 53
Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models S Muis, JCJH Aerts, JA Á. Antolínez, JC Dullaart, TM Duong, L Erikson, ... Earth's Future 11 (9), e2023EF003479 , 2023 2023 Citations: 52
Downscaling changing coastlines in a changing climate: The hybrid approach JAA Antolínez, AB Murray, FJ Méndez, LJ Moore, G Farley, J Wood Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 (2), 229-251 , 2018 2018 Citations: 52
Measurements of hydrodynamics, sediment, morphology and benthos on Ameland ebb-tidal delta and lower shoreface BC Van Prooijen, MFS Tissier, FP De Wit, SG Pearson, LB Brakenhoff, ... Earth System Science Data 12 (4), 2775-2786 , 2020 2020 Citations: 40
Multiscale climate emulator of multimodal wave spectra: MUSCLE‐spectra A Rueda, CA Hegermiller, JAA Antolinez, P Camus, S Vitousek, ... Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2), 1400-1415 , 2017 2017 Citations: 36
Hydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction F Scott, JAA Antolinez, R McCall, C Storlazzi, A Reniers, S Pearson Frontiers in Marine Science 7, 361 , 2020 2020 Citations: 35
Marine climate variability based on weather patterns for a complicated island setting: The New Zealand case A Rueda, L Cagigal, JAA Antolínez, JC Albuquerque, S Castanedo, ... Int. J. Climatol 39 (3), 1777-1786 , 2019 2019 Citations: 33
Directional correction of modeled sea and swell wave heights using satellite altimeter data J Albuquerque, JAA Antolínez, A Rueda, FJ Méndez, G Coco Ocean Modelling 131, 103-114 , 2018 2018 Citations: 33
Controls of multimodal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting CA Hegermiller, A Rueda, LH Erikson, PL Barnard, JAA Antolinez, ... Geophysical Research Letters 44 (24), 12,315-12,323 , 2017 2017 Citations: 31
Statistical simulation of ocean current patterns using autoregressive logistic regression models: A case study in the Gulf of Mexico H Chiri, AJ Abascal, S Castanedo, JAA Antolínez, Y Liu, RH Weisberg, ... Ocean Modelling 136, 1-12 , 2019 2019 Citations: 28
Distribution of global sea turtle nesting explained from regional-scale coastal characteristics JC Christiaanse, JAA Antolínez, AP Luijendijk, P Athanasiou, CM Duarte, ... Scientific Reports 14 (1), 752 , 2024 2024 Citations: 25
Seas and swells throughout New Zealand: A new partitioned hindcast J Albuquerque, JAA Antolínez, RM Gorman, FJ Méndez, G Coco Ocean Modelling 168, 101897 , 2021 2021 Citations: 25
Sensitivity of salt intrusion to estuary-scale changes: A systematic modelling study towards nature-based mitigation measures GG Hendrickx, WM Kranenburg, JAA Antolínez, Y Huismans, ... Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 295, 108564 , 2023 2023 Citations: 24