hydrology, water resources, regulation of river flow
8
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Assessment of Future Water Stress on Surface Waters in the West Kazakhstan Region Caused by the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Anthropogenic Pressure Aisulu Tursunova, Assel Saparova, Kairat Kulebayev, Gaukhar Baspakova, Aliya Nurbatsina, et al. Sustainability Switzerland, 2025 The surface water resources of the West Kazakhstan Region (WKR) face escalating vulnerability due to the synergistic effects of a sharply continental climate, which intensifies climate change impacts, and rapidly increasing anthropogenic water demand. This study aims to quantify and project the future water stress on WKR’s surface waters, assessing the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development over the critical period of 2030–2050. This study presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment and future projection of water stress on the region’s surface waters, integrating state-of-the-art CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with a novel model of water consumption growth accounting for regional demographic and economic developments. Employing advanced bias-corrected ensemble climate projections alongside physically interpretable water balance models, we estimate changes in river flows and lake volumes through mid-century. A newly developed Water Stress Index (WSI), supplemented by the Falkenmark Index, reveals an alarming increase in water stress, with projections indicating that over 70% of the WKR territory may face severe resource limitations by 2050. The analysis underscores significant spatial heterogeneity driven by climatic variability and socio-economic factors, emphasizing the urgent need for regionally tailored adaptation and water management strategies. These findings provide a robust scientific basis to guide policy decisions aimed at mitigating future water scarcity under evolving climate and development scenarios.
Long-Term Water Level Projections for Lake Balkhash Using Scenario-Based Water Balance Modeling Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Elmira Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Akhan Myrzakhmetov, et al. Water Switzerland, 2025 The study presents a scenario analysis of the long-term dynamics of the water level of Lake Balkhash, one of the largest closed lakes in Central Asia, taking into account climate change according to CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and socio-economic factors of water use. Based on historical data (1947–2021) and a water balance model, the contribution of surface runoff, precipitation and evaporation to the formation of the lake’s hydrological regime was assessed. It was established that the main source of water resources for the lake is the flow of the Ile River, which feeds the western part of the reservoir. The eastern part is characterized by extremely limited water inflow, while evaporation remains the main element of water consumption, having increased significantly in recent decades due to rising air temperatures. Increasing intra-seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water levels have been recorded: The amplitude of short-term fluctuations reached 0.7–0.8 m, which exceeds previously characteristic values. The results of water balance modeling up to 2050 show a trend towards a 30% reduction in surface inflow and an increase in evaporation by 25% compared to the 1981–2010 climate norm, which highlights the high sensitivity of the lake’s hydrological regime to climatic and anthropogenic influences. The results obtained justify the need for the comprehensive and adaptive management of water resources in the Balkhash Lake basin, taking into account the transboundary nature of water use and changing climatic conditions.
SCENARIO FORECAST OF BALKASH LAKE LEVEL BASED ON CMIP6 GLOBAL MODELS Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Elmira Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Akhan Myrzakhmetov International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management Sgem, 2025 In the presented scientific work, a scenario forecast for the long-term perspective of water level changes in Lake Balkhash, one of the largest drainless lakes in Central Asia, is carried out. The study takes into account the impact of projected climatic changes based on CMIP6 data and the impact of socio-economic factors, including water management activities. A water balance model was used as the main tool to quantify the role of surface inflow, precipitation and evaporation in shaping the hydrological regime of the reservoir. The results of modelling under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2030, 2040 and 2050 yy. indicate an expected decrease in surface runoff volumes as a result of the combined effects of climate change and economic activity. At the same time, evaporation is projected to increase against the background of rising air temperature. In the absence of effective mechanisms for transboundary water co-operation and climate adaptation, Lake Balkhash will be faces serious environmental risks � in particular, possible partial shallowing and fragmentation of the reservoir, especially in its eastern part. These results emphasize the need for a systematic and adaptive approach to water resources management in the Balkhash basin, taking into account natural non-stationarity, regional risks and socio-economic instability.
Response of the water level of the Balkash Lake to the distribution of meteorological and hydrological droughts under the conditions of climate change Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, E. K. Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Dimitris Tigkas, et al. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2024 Hydrological droughts occur due to a variety of hydrometeorological phenomena, such as lack of precipitation, reduced snow cover and high evaporation. The values of these factors vary depending on the climate and the severity of drought events. Droughts caused by a lack of precipitation and continuing in the warm season have a longer periodicity. This important statement raises the question of whether climate change may exacerbate the phenomenon of drought. Therefore, understanding changes in the formation of hydrological droughts is key to foreseeing possible changes in the future. This scientific study analyzes the spread of hydrometeorological droughts in the Ile-Balkash basin using standardized precipitation indices and the drought index of river runoff. Lake Balkash plays an important role in the hydrological cycle and is a valuable freshwater resource, especially in dry years. Prolonged droughts in the area have serious consequences, including deterioration of water quality and loss of wetlands, which are important to the ecological system and migratory birds. The analysis shows that during the period of instrumental observations, several extreme hydrological droughts were observed in this area, (1943–1946, 1973–1975 and 1983–1987), which emphasizes the relevance and importance of scientific research on the problem of drought.
