Reliability analysis of an earth dam in operating conditions using direct coupling A. T. Siacara, G. F. Napa-García, A. T. Beck, M. M. Futai SN Applied Sciences, 2022 In this study, we present a numerical investigation of the direct coupling between the deterministic GeoStudio package (Seepage/W and Slope/W software) and the StRAnD reliability package for normal operating conditions of an existing old earth dam over time. Direct coupling avoids errors associated to point estimate methods and to using response surface surrogates. One relevant feature of the study is the use of realistic pore water pressures for each equilibrium analysis, accomplished by considering a long-term steady-state analysis as an initial condition, followed by four years of equilibrium analysis, before each transient seepage analysis. All reliability analysis were performed using the first-order reliability method. The most important random parameters found in sensitivity analyses are four dam body parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity, ks; specific weight, γ; effective cohesion, c′; and friction angle, ϕ′) and two filter parameters (ks and ϕ′). A range of values of the relationship between the reliability index (β) and the factor of safety (FS) was found for all probabilistic and deterministic results. Finally, a large difference in terms of critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces is identified for the same time of analysis. Article highlights Realistic pore water pressures used in dam equilibrium analysis, by considering random seepage analysis in previous 5 to 30 days. Direct coupling of deterministic and reliability softwares avoids errors associated to point estimate and response surface surrogate methods. Existing old earth dam studied in Normal Operating Condition. For same analysis time, large differences are observed between critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces.
Reliability-based design optimization of a concrete dam Adrian Torrico Siacara, Giovanni Pais Pellizzer, André Teófilo Beck, Marcos Massao Futai Revista Ibracon De Estruturas E Materiais, 2022 Performance and safety of geotechnical structures are affected by uncertainties. Yet, the design of dams is nowadays still made using deterministic methods and design codes. Dam optimization in a deterministic setting may lead to compromised safety margins. In this setting, Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) appears as an alternative, allowing one to optimize dam performance, but respecting specified reliability constraints. In this paper, we employ an efficient and accurate Single-Loop Approach (SLA) in the RBDO of a concrete dam. Considering dam equilibrium reliability constraints, we find the optimal dam base and optimal placement of drainage galleries, for different dam heights and different target reliability index ( β T). We show how the governing failure mode changes for each optimal solution: for large β T, sliding limit state is the active constraint; for smaller β T values, the eccentricity limit state function is found to be the active constraint for the optimum dam. We also investigate how the importance of random parameters change for each optimum solution: for large β T and failure controlled by sliding, the cohesion and friction angle along dam base interface with foundation rock are the most relevant uncertain parameters for dam equilibrium. For smaller β T with failure controlled by eccentricity, the more relevant uncertain geotechnical parameters are the base length of the dam, the specific weight of concrete, and the coefficient of drainage gallery inefficiency.
Climate-impacted reliability analysis of earth slopes with spatially variable soils using active learning surrogate modeling AT Siacara, X Guo, AT Beck Computers and Geotechnics 195, 108074 , 2026 2026
Numerical Simulation of Slope Failures in 2D and 3D Using the Material Point Method OI Nadde, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Automated Search for Optimal Cost of Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Walls BR Cunha, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Deterministic Cost Optimization of Soil Nailing Walls for Highway Applications ND Gomes, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Analysis of the climatic effects on the stability of a tailings dam GR Leal, AT Siacara Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering (CILAMCE) , 2024 2024
Impact of random field simulations on FEM-based earth slope reliability AT Siacara, AT Beck, J Ji Geotechnical and geological engineering 42 (8), 7873-7891 , 2024 2024 Citations: 10
Probabilistic analysis of shallow foundation on earth slope using an active learning surrogate-centered procedure AT Siacara, X Guo, AT Beck Computers and Geotechnics 175, 106659 , 2024 2024 Citations: 20
Reliability analysis of an earth dam under rainfall effects AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai International Journal of Geosynthetics and Ground Engineering 10 (3), 59 , 2024 2024 Citations: 13
Correction to: Numerical Analysis of Infiltration in One‑Dimensional Unsaturated Soil–Geotextile Column GB Castro, AT Siacara, A Nardelli, L Lenzi, MM Futai Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 40 (8), 4145-4145 , 2022 2022
Numerical Analysis of Infiltration in one-Dimensional Unsaturated soil–geotextile column GB Castro, AT Siacara, A Nardelli, L Lenzi, MM Futai Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 40 (8), 4121-4144 , 2022 2022 Citations: 8
Reliability analysis of an earth dam in operating conditions using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai SN Applied Sciences 4 (4), 99 , 2022 2022 Citations: 15
Tailings dam failures: A historical analysis of the risk ALM Halabi, AT Siacara, VK Sakano, RG Pileggi, MM Futai Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention 22 (2), 464-477 , 2022 2022 Citations: 31
Reliability-based design optimization of a concrete dam AT Siacara, GP Pellizzer, AT Beck, MM Futai Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materiais 15, e15501 , 2022 2022 Citations: 4
Análise de confiabilidade de primeira ordem (FORM) aplicada à engenharia de barragens A Torrico Siacara, GF Napa García, AT Beck, MM Futai Inovação e Tecnologia na Geotecnia-COBRAMSEG 2022 , 2022 2022
Reliability Analysis of a Shallow Foundation Considering Soil Spatial Variability AT Siacara, HM Kroetz, AT Bec, MM Futai 2022
Análise de confiabilidade de primeira ordem (FORM) aplicada à engenharia de barragens AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai Campinas: ANAIS DO XX COBRAMSEG , 2022 2022 Citations: 2
Otimização de projeto baseada em confiabilidade de uma barragem de concreto AT Siacara, GP Pellizzer, AT Beck, MM Futai Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materiais 15, e15501 , 2022 2022
Reliability analysis of earth slopes using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai International Conference of the International Association for Computer … , 2021 2021 Citations: 4
Reliability-based design of an earth and concrete dam. A Torrico Siacara Universidade de São Paulo , 2021 2021 Citations: 1
Reliability analysis of earth dams using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 12 (2), 366-380 , 2020 2020 Citations: 64
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Reliability analysis of rapid drawdown of an earth dam using direct coupling AT Siacara, AT Beck, MM Futai Computers and Geotechnics 118, 103336 , 2020 2020 Citations: 80
Reliability analysis of earth dams using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 12 (2), 366-380 , 2020 2020 Citations: 64
A general relationship to estimate strength of fibre-reinforced cemented fine-grained soils NC Consoli, SFV Marques, NC Sampa, MS Bortolotto, AT Siacara, ... Geosynthetics International 24 (4), 435-441 , 2017 2017 Citations: 34
Tailings dam failures: A historical analysis of the risk ALM Halabi, AT Siacara, VK Sakano, RG Pileggi, MM Futai Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention 22 (2), 464-477 , 2022 2022 Citations: 31
Probabilistic analysis of shallow foundation on earth slope using an active learning surrogate-centered procedure AT Siacara, X Guo, AT Beck Computers and Geotechnics 175, 106659 , 2024 2024 Citations: 20
Reliability analysis of an earth dam in operating conditions using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai SN Applied Sciences 4 (4), 99 , 2022 2022 Citations: 15
Reliability analysis of an earth dam under rainfall effects AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai International Journal of Geosynthetics and Ground Engineering 10 (3), 59 , 2024 2024 Citations: 13
Impact of random field simulations on FEM-based earth slope reliability AT Siacara, AT Beck, J Ji Geotechnical and geological engineering 42 (8), 7873-7891 , 2024 2024 Citations: 10
Numerical Analysis of Infiltration in one-Dimensional Unsaturated soil–geotextile column GB Castro, AT Siacara, A Nardelli, L Lenzi, MM Futai Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 40 (8), 4121-4144 , 2022 2022 Citations: 8
Reliability analysis of earth dams using direct coupling. J Rock Mech Geotech Eng 12 (2): 366–380 AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai 2020 Citations: 7
Reliability-based design optimization of a concrete dam AT Siacara, GP Pellizzer, AT Beck, MM Futai Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materiais 15, e15501 , 2022 2022 Citations: 4
Reliability analysis of earth slopes using direct coupling AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai International Conference of the International Association for Computer … , 2021 2021 Citations: 4
Análise de confiabilidade de primeira ordem (FORM) aplicada à engenharia de barragens AT Siacara, GF Napa-García, AT Beck, MM Futai Campinas: ANAIS DO XX COBRAMSEG , 2022 2022 Citations: 2
Reliability-based design of an earth and concrete dam. A Torrico Siacara Universidade de São Paulo , 2021 2021 Citations: 1
Confiabilidade Estrutural de uma barragem de terra antiga AT Siacara, AT Beck, MM Futai CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE MECÂNICA DOS SOLOS E ENGENHARIA GEOTÉCNICA 19, 1-10 , 2018 2018 Citations: 1
Climate-impacted reliability analysis of earth slopes with spatially variable soils using active learning surrogate modeling AT Siacara, X Guo, AT Beck Computers and Geotechnics 195, 108074 , 2026 2026
Numerical Simulation of Slope Failures in 2D and 3D Using the Material Point Method OI Nadde, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Automated Search for Optimal Cost of Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Walls BR Cunha, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Deterministic Cost Optimization of Soil Nailing Walls for Highway Applications ND Gomes, AT Siacara XLVI Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering 5 , 2025 2025
Analysis of the climatic effects on the stability of a tailings dam GR Leal, AT Siacara Ibero-Latin American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering (CILAMCE) , 2024 2024