Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests Sofia Miguel, Emily Lines, Mihai Tanase, Alba Viana‐Soto, Cornelius Senf, et al. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026 Despite disturbances intensifying across European forests, it is not well known how their baseline regimes and trends vary across regions and disturbance agents. Using a Landsat‐derived dataset of over 3.8 million fire, wind and bark beetle disturbance events (1985–2023), we applied Gaussian finite mixture models to characterise natural disturbance regimes by causal agent, based on disturbance size, severity and frequency. We then analysed their variability across 50‐km grid cells and biomes (boreal, temperate, Mediterranean), as well as their long‐term trends and transitions across three periods (1985–1997, 1998–2010, 2011–2023). Fire regimes exhibited a marked north–south latitudinal gradient: severe and rare fires occurred in boreal and temperate biomes, whereas moderate and large and frequent fires predominated in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean transitional forests. For wind and bark beetle disturbances, we identified four distinct regimes: moderate disturbances predominated in boreal and temperate biomes; mild and rare disturbances occurred in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean forests; and frequent and small , as well as severe and large disturbances predominated in Central Europe and the British Isles, respectively. Approximately 15% of all grid cells shifted to a different disturbance regime during the study period. Fire frequency and severity declined in temperate and Mediterranean forests between the first and second period (1985–1997 and 1998–2010). Wind and bark beetle disturbances decreased in size in boreal and temperate forests during the same period, followed by increases in disturbance severity in temperate forests between the second and third period (1998–2010 and 2011–2023). Synthesis and applications: The heterogeneity of natural disturbance patterns and high temporal variability across European Forest suggest the need of adopting context‐dependent management strategies tailored to both the dominant disturbance agent and local environmental conditions, particularly in the most vulnerable regions, such as the Iberian Peninsula—with large and frequent fires—and Central Europe—with increasing bark beetle outbreaks. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the journal’s blog .
Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century Marc Grünig, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Katharina Albrich, Frédéric André, et al. Science, 2026 Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.
Forest Reburns Are Integral to Southern Europe's Disturbance Regimes Alba Viana‐Soto, Cornelius Senf Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2026 Aim Fire disturbances are integral to fire‐prone landscapes of southern Europe. While evidence of changing fire frequency has been documented, the dynamics of forest reburns—defined as previously burned areas that ignite again within intervals shorter than the historical range with which forests ecologically evolved—remain largely unexplored. Here, we aim to provide the first large‐scale characterisation of reburns in southern Europe. Location Europe. Time Period 1985–2023. Methods Using a novel remote sensing dataset on fire disturbances, we identified areas burning multiple times by aggregating the annual information on fire disturbances. We calculated the proportion of forest area affected by fire (burn fraction) and the proportion that reburned (reburn fraction) across space and time to characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of reburn occurrence. Results We quantified the spatial extent and frequency of reburns, revealing that 30.1% of burned area in southern Europe experienced multiple fire events within the 1985–2023 period (4.24 Mha), with 84.5% of these reburns occurring within a 20‐year interval, and thus approaching the lower limit of reproductive maturity for many tree species. Reburn hotspots emerged across the Mediterranean, where 19%–21.1% year −1 of all fires were reburns within 20 years, and in the temperate forests of western Europe, where reburns accounted for 40.8% year −1 . We further show that, although the overall burned area decreased, reburns continued to account for a substantial share of annual burn activity since 2005, with even slight increases in eastern regions. Main Conclusions Our results highlight that reburns are integral to southern Europe's disturbance regimes, and we emphasise the critical role of long time series for understanding forest dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that reburns may increasingly shape fire regimes in southern Europe under intensifying forest fire activity, which may undermine post‐fire recovery and require special consideration from management.
Long-term comparison shows protected and non-protected forests differ in harvesting, but not in wildfires or drought-driven dieback Josep Maria Espelta, Alba Viana‐Soto, Roberto Molowny‐Horas, Miquel de Caceres, Miriam Selwyn, et al. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2026 While disturbances are essential for biodiversity, their escalation driven by climate change may threaten forest ecosystems. Contrasting approaches to adapt forests to disturbances—intensifying management versus encouraging natural succession towards more mature ecosystems—have sparked a debate about whether protection influences forests' vulnerability to disturbance. This question, however, has barely been investigated. Natura 2000 network is the backbone of biodiversity protection in Europe. We compared the long‐term incidence of harvesting, wildfires and drought‐driven forest dieback inside and outside Natura 2000 areas in Catalonia (NE Spain) by combining remote sensing‐derived maps of harvesting and wildfires (1985–2023), an exhaustive ground survey on forest dieback (2012–2023) and forest characteristics extracted from 3400 permanent plots inventoried in 1990, 2000 and 2015. From 1985 to 2023, remote sensing‐identified wildfires and harvesting affected 20% of the total forest area, with 60% attributed to harvesting and 40% to wildfires, highlighting the strong influence of wildfires on Mediterranean landscapes. From 2012 to 2023, the forest area affected by drought‐driven dieback (11%) matched the sum of the area of wildfires and harvesting for the same period or that of wildfires for 40 years, which suggests an increasing impact of drought‐driven dieback. Harvesting occurrence and intensity were significantly higher outside Natura 2000 sites, whereas protection did not influence wildfires or dieback, triggered by environmental and forest characteristics, that is, bioclimatic region, topography or leaf habit. Ultimately, a higher harvesting intensity did not prevent forests from experiencing drought‐driven dieback later. Synthesis and applications . Lower forest harvesting in Natura 2000 sites may align with socio‐economic barriers often claimed by local communities, but protection does not influence vulnerability to other disturbances. In a general scenario of reduced forest harvesting in the region, we argue that differences in harvesting due to protection are statistically significant but ecologically irrelevant in influencing wildfires or drought‐driven dieback. Moreover, beyond protection status, the lack of effects of the current harvesting intensities in halting drought‐driven dieback suggests they may be insufficient for supporting forests' adaptation to climate change. Additionally, other measures (e.g. promoting more drought‐tolerant tree species and genotypes) should also be considered.
Tree Regeneration After Unprecedented Forest Disturbances in Central Europe Is Robust but Maladapted to Future Climate Change Mária Potterf, Christian Schattenberg, Kirsten Krüger, Kilian Hochholzer, Werner Rammer, et al. Global Change Biology, 2026 Central Europe has been a hotspot of forest disturbance during 2018–2020, with large pulses of tree mortality from drought and bark beetles. Post‐disturbance recovery is crucial for forest resilience and the continued provision of ecosystem services. We surveyed 849 plots in disturbance hotspots across 10 Central European countries to assess the state of early (3–5 years) post‐disturbance tree regeneration. Our specific objectives were to quantify post‐disturbance tree recovery, identify key drivers, and assess future trajectories using model‐based analyses. We found robust tree recovery throughout Central Europe, with median stem densities of 4750 n ha −1 . Only 7% of plots had no regeneration. Regeneration density increased with precipitation, particularly at warm sites, and decreased with disturbance severity and size. The most frequently regenerating tree species was Picea abies (present on 48% of plots), a species that is poorly adapted to future heat and drought. Overall, we found that 75% of the currently established trees are projected to be outside of their climatic niche by the end of the century under moderate climate change (RCP4.5). We conclude that while Central European forests recover well from recent disturbances, they lack sufficient post‐disturbance reorganization to enable sufficient adaptation to future climate.
Towards a global understanding of tree mortality Cornelius Adriane Thomas A. M. William R. L. Kristina J. Gab Senf Esquivel‐Muelbert Pugh Anderegg Anderson‐Teix, Cornelius Senf, Adriane Esquível-Muelbert, Thomas A. M. Pugh, W. Anderegg, et al. New Phytologist, 2025
Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests S Miguel, E Lines, M Tanase, A Viana‐Soto, C Senf, P Ruiz‐Benito Journal of Applied Ecology 63 (4), e70344 , 2026 2026
Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century M Grünig, W Rammer, C Senf, K Albrich, F André, ALD Augustynczik, ... Science 391 (6789), eadx6329 , 2026 2026 Citations: 11
The role of thermal constraints in post-disturbance forest recovery across the European Alps–a large-scale remote sensing study L Mandl, A Stritih, R Seidl, C Senf Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 378, 111016 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Climate-driven increases in wildfire projected to affect European forest types differently M Patacca, M Grünig, MJ Schelhaas, I Alberdi, S Filipek, J Fridman, ... Environmental Research Letters 21 (3), 034027 , 2026 2026
Tree Regeneration After Unprecedented Forest Disturbances in Central Europe Is Robust but Maladapted to Future Climate Change M Potterf, C Schattenberg, K Krüger, K Hochholzer, W Rammer, M Grünig, ... Global Change Biology 32 (2), e70734 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Forest Reburns Are Integral to Southern Europe's Disturbance Regimes A Viana‐Soto, C Senf Global Ecology and Biogeography 35 (2), e70198 , 2026 2026
Long‐term comparison shows protected and non‐protected forests differ in harvesting, but not in wildfires or drought‐driven dieback JM Espelta, A Viana‐Soto, R Molowny‐Horas, M de Caceres, M Selwyn, ... Journal of Applied Ecology 63 (2), e70282 , 2026 2026
The impact of extreme disturbance events on the economic attractiveness of stand types: A Monte Carlo simulation-based study R Farahani, J Fibich, J Mohr, C Senf, T Knoke Forest Policy and Economics 183, 103696 , 2026 2026
Benchmarking tree instance segmentation of terrestrial laser scanning point clouds W Cherlet, K Dayal, S Chen, Z Cooper, M Disney, A Hanzl, S Levick, ... ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 231, 230-247 , 2026 2026 Citations: 5
Landscape context modulates the effect of local canopy cover on forest multidiversity across elevations T Richter, R Seidl, LS Geres, S König, L Mandl, C Senf, A Keller, ... Journal of Applied Ecology 62 (12), 3537-3549 , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
The amount of undisturbed forest in proximity of severe disturbance patches enhances their recovery in temperate Europe L Mandl, M Cerioni, R Bače, A Bončina, J Brůna, E Chećko, ... Landscape Ecology 40 (11), 1-15 , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
Increasing forest disturbance enhances habitat suitability for Europe’s large herbivores J Oeser, R Kowalczyk, D Kuijper, W Neumann, R Seidl, C Senf, R Reiner, ... 2025 Citations: 1
Natürliche Resilienz der Wälder gegenüber klimawandelbedingten Störungen S Peters, J Hagge, M Baumeister, P Beckschäfer, BM Delory, L Ehrminger, ... AFZ, der Wald 2025 (19), 24-26 , 2025 2025
Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change JS Mohr, F Bastit, M Grünig, T Knoke, W Rammer, C Senf, D Thom, ... Nature Climate Change 15 (10), 1078-1083 , 2025 2025 Citations: 14
The Global Canopy Atlas: analysis-ready maps of 3D structure for the world’s woody ecosystems FJ Fischer, B Morgan, T Jackson, J Chave, D Coomes, KC Cushman, ... bioRxiv, 2025.08. 31.673375 , 2025 2025 Citations: 4
Spaceborne remote sensing effectively maps species richness across taxonomic groups in a mountain landscape C Senf, L Geres, T Richter, K Braziunas, F Glasmann, R Seidl, S Seibold International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 143 … , 2025 2025 Citations: 2
Realistic virtual forests for understanding forest disturbances and recovery from space K Calders, M Herold, J Adams, J Armston, B Brede, W Cherlet, ZT Cooper, ... ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 227, 501-507 , 2025 2025 Citations: 6
Taylor’s law predicts unprecedented pulses of forest disturbance under global change C Senf, R Seidl, T Knoke, T Jucker Nature Communications 16 (1), 6133 , 2025 2025 Citations: 6
The European Forest Disturbance Atlas: a forest disturbance monitoring system using the Landsat archive A Viana-Soto, C Senf Earth System Science Data 17 (6), 2373-2404 , 2025 2025 Citations: 40
Setting aside areas for conservation does not increase disturbances in temperate forests K Krüger, C Senf, J Hagge, R Seidl Journal of Applied Ecology 62 (5), 1271-1281 , 2025 2025 Citations: 13
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe C Senf, A Buras, CS Zang, A Rammig, R Seidl Nature communications 11 (1), 6200 , 2020 2020 Citations: 623
Mapping the forest disturbance regimes of Europe C Senf, R Seidl Nature Sustainability 4, 63-70 , 2021 2021 Citations: 587
Canopy mortality has doubled in Europe’s temperate forests over the last three decades C Senf, D Pflugmacher, Y Zhiqiang, J Sebald, J Knorn, M Neumann, ... Nature Communications 9 (1), 4978 , 2018 2018 Citations: 385
Remote sensing of forest insect disturbances: Current state and future directions C Senf, R Seidl, P Hostert International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation 60, 49-60 , 2017 2017 Citations: 365
Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome A Sommerfeld, C Senf, B Buma, AW D’Amato, T Després, ... Nature communications 9 (1), 4355 , 2018 2018 Citations: 334
Mapping land cover in complex Mediterranean landscapes using Landsat: Improved classification accuracies from integrating multi-seasonal and synthetic imagery C Senf, PJ Leitão, D Pflugmacher, S van der Linden, P Hostert Remote Sensing of Environment 156, 527-536 , 2015 2015 Citations: 215
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe C Senf, R Seidl Biogeosciences 18 (18), 5223-5230 , 2021 2021 Citations: 212
Storm and fire disturbances in Europe: Distribution and trends C Senf, R Seidl Global change biology 27 (15), 3605-3619 , 2021 2021 Citations: 186
Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems R Seidl, J Honkaniemi, T Aakala, A Aleinikov, P Angelstam, M Bouchard, ... Ecography , 2020 2020 Citations: 186
Characterizing spectral–temporal patterns of defoliator and bark beetle disturbances using Landsat time series C Senf, D Pflugmacher, MA Wulder, P Hostert Remote Sensing of Environment 170, 166-177 , 2015 2015 Citations: 181
Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe C Senf, R Seidl Global change biology 24 (3), 1201-1211 , 2018 2018 Citations: 172
Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe M Grünig, R Seidl, C Senf Global Change Biology 29 (6), 1648-1659 , 2023 2023 Citations: 162
Mapping rubber plantations and natural forests in Xishuangbanna (Southwest China) using multi-spectral phenological metrics from MODIS time series C Senf, D Pflugmacher, S Van der Linden, P Hostert Remote Sensing 5 (6), 2795-2812 , 2013 2013 Citations: 148
Post-disturbance recovery of forest cover and tree height differ with management in Central Europe C Senf, J Müller, R Seidl Landscape Ecology 34 (12), 2837-2850 , 2019 2019 Citations: 143
Characterizing spring phenology of temperate broadleaf forests using Landsat and Sentinel-2 time series K Kowalski, C Senf, P Hostert, D Pflugmacher International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 92, 102172 , 2020 2020 Citations: 132
Concerns about reported harvests in European forests M Palahí, R Valbuena, C Senf, N Acil, TAM Pugh, J Sadler, R Seidl, ... Nature 592 (7856), E15-E17 , 2021 2021 Citations: 118
Increasing canopy mortality affects the future demographic structure of Europe's forests C Senf, J Sebald, R Seidl One Earth 4 (5), 749-755 , 2021 2021 Citations: 116
Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe C Senf, D Pflugmacher, H Patrick, R Seidl ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 130, 453-463 , 2017 2017 Citations: 116
Seeing the System from Above C Senf Ecosystems 25 (8), 1719-1737 , 2022 2022 Citations: 106
Post‐disturbance canopy recovery and the resilience of Europe’s forests C Senf, R Seidl Global Ecology and Biogeography 31 (1), 25-36 , 2022 2022 Citations: 103
