Oliver Fricko
@iiasa.ac.at
Integrated Assessment and Climate Change Research Group (IACC) of the Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS
Energy
Scopus Publications
Scholar Citations
Scholar h-index
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
Osamu Nishiura, Volker Krey, Oliver Fricko, Bas van Ruijven, and Shinichiro Fujimori
Elsevier BV
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Esther Boere, Peter Burek, Miguel Poblete Cazenave, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Alessio Mastrucci,et al.
Copernicus GmbH
Abstract. The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors.
Mark M. Dekker, Vassilis Daioglou, Robert Pietzcker, Renato Rodrigues, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Francesco Dalla Longa, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Amir Fattahi, Theofano Fotiou,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractEnergy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.
Matthew J Gidden, Elina Brutschin, Gaurav Ganti, Gamze Unlu, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, Benjamin Mitterrutzner, Francesco Lovat, and Keywan Riahi
IOP Publishing
Abstract Questions around the technical and political feasibility of deep mitigation scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have increasingly been raised as have calls for more directly analyzing and incorporating aspects of justice and fairness. Simultaneously, models are increasing the technical representation of novel carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to provide policy-relevant analyses of mitigation portfolios in the context of the rising number of net-zero CO2 and GHG targets made by parties to the Paris Agreement. Still, in most cost-effective mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models, a significant portion of mitigation is assumed to take place in developing regions. We address these intersecting questions through analyzing scenarios that include direct air capture of CO2 with storage (DACCS), a novel CDR technology that is not dependent on land potential and can be deployed widely, as well as regional variations in institutional capacity for mitigation based on country-level governance indicators. We find that including novel CDR and representations of institutional capacity can enhance both the feasibility and fairness of 2 °C and 1.5 °C high-overshoot scenarios, especially in the near term, with institutional capacity playing a stronger role than the presence of additional carbon removal methods. However, our results indicate that new CDR methods being studied by models are not likely to change regional mitigation outcomes of scenarios which achieve the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement. Thus, while engineered carbon removals like DACCS may play a significant role by midcentury, gross emissions reductions in mitigation pathways arriving at net-zero CO2 emissions in line with 1.5 °C do not substantially change. Our results highlight that further investment and development of novel CDR is critical for post-net-zero CO2 mitigation, but that equitable achievement of this milestone will need to arrive through technical and financial transfers, rather than by substantial carbon removals in developed countries before mid-century.
Heleen L. van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Laurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti, Simone A. Padoan, Lara Aleluia Reis, Christoph Bertram, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Laurent Drouet, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Heleen L. van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractClosing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Adriano Vinca, Francesco Lovat, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bas van Ruijven, Charlie Wilson, Joeri Rogelj, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, and Keywan Riahi
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Stephanie Roe, Charlotte Streck, Robert Beach, Jonah Busch, Melissa Chapman, Vassilis Daioglou, Andre Deppermann, Jonathan Doelman, Jeremy Emmet‐Booth, Jens Engelmann,et al.
Wiley
AbstractLand‐based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom‐up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land‐based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost‐effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost‐effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost‐effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand‐side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand‐side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co‐benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio‐cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land‐based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near‐term, low‐cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country‐specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
Christoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi, Jérôme Hilaire, Valentina Bosetti, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Aman Malik, Larissa Pupo Nogueira, Bob van der Zwaan, Bas van Ruijven,et al.
IOP Publishing
Abstract The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire,et al.
IOP Publishing
Peter Rafaj1,∗, Gregor Kiesewetter1,∗, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis and Detlef van Vuuren 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany 3 RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy 4 Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 5 NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Japan 6 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands 7 Industrial Ecology Programme and Energy Transitions Initiative, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway 8 Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands ∗ Authors to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Gunnar Luderer, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Jennifer Faye Morris,et al.
IOP Publishing
Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend.
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire,et al.
IOP Publishing
Abstract Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions.
Daniel Huppmann, Matthew J. Gidden, Zebedee Nicholls, Jonas Hörsch, Robin Lamboll, Paul N. Kishimoto, Thorsten Burandt, Oliver Fricko, Edward Byers, Jarmo Kikstra,et al.
F1000 Research Ltd
The open-source Python package pyam provides a suite of features and methods for the analysis, validation and visualization of reference data and scenario results generated by integrated assessment models, macro-energy tools and other frameworks in the domain of energy transition, climate change mitigation and sustainable development. It bridges the gap between scenario processing and visualisation solutions that are "hard-wired" to specific modelling frameworks and generic data analysis or plotting packages. The package aims to facilitate reproducibility and reliability of scenario processing, validation and analysis by providing well-tested and documented methods for working with timeseries data in the context of climate policy and energy systems. It supports various data formats, including sub-annual resolution using continuous time representation and "representative timeslices". The pyam package can be useful for modelers generating scenario results using their own tools as well as researchers and analysts working with existing scenario ensembles such as those supporting the IPCC reports or produced in research projects. It is structured in a way that it can be applied irrespective of a user's domain expertise or level of Python knowledge, supporting experts as well as novice users. The code base is implemented following best practices of collaborative scientific-software development. This manuscript describes the design principles of the package and the types of data which can be handled. The usefulness of pyam is illustrated by highlighting several recent applications.
Steven J Smith, Jean Chateau, Kalyn Dorheim, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractThe relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.
Mark Roelfsema, Heleen L. van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Gabriela Iacobuta, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractMany countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
Mathijs Harmsen, Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractSeveral studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.
Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jean Chateau, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Tatsuya Hanaoka,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractThis study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4(50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.
Nico Bauer, Steven K. Rose, Shinichiro Fujimori, Detlef P. van Vuuren, John Weyant, Marshall Wise, Yiyun Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Matthew J. Gidden, Etsushi Kato,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Robert Fofrich, Dan Tong, Katherine Calvin, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Joeri Rogelj, and Steven J Davis
IOP Publishing
Abstract International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.
Wenji Zhou, David L. McCollum, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Fei Guo, Tomoko Hasegawa, Han Huang, Daniel Huppmann, Volker Krey,et al.
Informa UK Limited
ABSTRACT Exploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is essential to understanding how the countries of this rapidly growing region may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this end, this study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in the energy portfolio is required to reach the target of ‘well below’ 2°C. Specifically, our scenarios point to a rapid reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. Such a transformation leads to a deep cut in CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% by 2050 in scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Electricity generation and final energy consumption become dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050 in these scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that the scale of low-carbon investment may need to double and triple, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonizing the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as air pollution, clean water and food security. Key policy insights Governments will need to employ a variety of policy mechanisms, including mandates and subsidies for renewables and electric vehicles, efficiency standards for end-use technologies, and bans on free-emitting fossil fuel plants, among others. Relative to the baseline scenario for developing Asia, the scale of investment into low-carbon energy to 2050 may need to double for a 2°C scenario, and to triple for 1.5°C. Policy instruments such as green finance are essential for this region to mobilize a broadened channel of investment, particularly from the private sector. Low-carbon investment would significantly reduce the capital investment needed to achieve the SDG target for air quality, but increase the requirements for meeting targets on clean water and food security, though only to a small extent.
Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Anders Arvesen, Thomas Gibon, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Oliver Fricko, Mohamad Hejazi, Florian Humpenöder, Gokul Iyer,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractA rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.
Stephanie Roe, Charlotte Streck, Michael Obersteiner, Stefan Frank, Bronson Griscom, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Nancy Harris, Tomoko Hasegawa,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Wenji Zhou, David L McCollum, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Daniel Huppmann, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi
IOP Publishing
Abstract The radical change in recent global climate governance calls for China and Europe to ramp up their efforts in leading the world to reach the long-term climate goals. By analyzing the results from the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, this paper aims to understand the future levels of financial investment needed for building and maintaining energy-related infrastructure in the two regions for fulfilling stringent targets consistent with ‘well below 2 °C’. The results indicate that a rapid upscaling and structural change of these investments towards decarbonization are necessitated by the climate stringent scenarios. China and Europe need to increase their low carbon investments by 65% and 38% in a scenario reaching the 2° target relative to their respective reference scenarios which assume no such target from 2016–2050. In a more stringent climate policy scenario of the 1.5° target, these investment needs will increase by 149% and 79% for China and Europe respectively. Among all the energy sectors, energy efficiency, renewable electricity generation and electricity transmission and distribution are the three largest investing targets for the two regions. However, those investments will not likely be realized without strong policy incentives. Implications for green finance and multilateral cooperation initiatives are discussed in the context of the scenario results.