Vishnu S Nair
@iisertvm.ac.in
Assistant Professor, School of Earth, Environmental and Sustainability Sciences
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Thiruvananthapuram
RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS
Atmospheric Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Oceanography, Computers in Earth Sciences
Scopus Publications
Scholar Citations
Scholar h-index
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
S. Vishnu, William R. Boos, and William D. Collins
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractHistorical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K−1, which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.
S. Vishnu, Mark D. Risser, Travis A. O’Brien, Paul A. Ullrich, and William R. Boos
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractMost extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.
L. Ruby Leung, William R. Boos, Jennifer L. Catto, Charlotte A. DeMott, Gill M. Martin, J. David Neelin, Travis A. O’Brien, Shaocheng Xie, Zhe Feng, Nicholas P. Klingaman,et al.
American Meteorological Society
AbstractPrecipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather and climate modeling. Limitations in modeling precipitation underscore the need for diagnostics and metrics to evaluate precipitation in simulations and predictions. While routine use of basic metrics is important for documenting model skill, more sophisticated diagnostics and metrics aimed at connecting model biases to their sources and revealing precipitation characteristics relevant to how model precipitation is used are critical for improving models and their uses. This paper illustrates examples of exploratory diagnostics and metrics including 1) spatiotemporal characteristics metrics such as diurnal variability, probability of extremes, duration of dry spells, spectral characteristics, and spatiotemporal coherence of precipitation; 2) process-oriented metrics based on the rainfall–moisture coupling and temperature–water vapor environments of precipitation; and 3) phenomena-based metrics focusing on precipitation associated with weather phenomena including low pressure systems, mesoscale convective systems, frontal systems, and atmospheric rivers. Together, these diagnostics and metrics delineate the multifaceted and multiscale nature of precipitation, its relations with the environments, and its generation mechanisms. The metrics are applied to historical simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models exhibit diverse skill as measured by the suite of metrics, with very few models consistently ranked as top or bottom performers compared to other models in multiple metrics. Analysis of model skill across metrics and models suggests possible relationships among subsets of metrics, motivating the need for more systematic analysis to understand model biases for informing model development.
R Harikumar, P Sirisha, Anuradha Modi, M S Girishkumar, S Vishnu, K Srinivas, Rakhi Kumari, G Yatin, P Dinesh Kumar, T M Balakrishnan Nair,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
S. Vishnu, A. Chakraborty, and J. Srinivasan
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
S. Vishnu, W. R. Boos, P. A. Ullrich, and T. A. O'Brien
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
AbstractCyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.
Savita Patwardhan, K. P. Sooraj, Hamza Varikoden, S. Vishnu, K. Koteswararao, M. V. S. Ramarao, and D. R. Pattanaik
Springer Singapore
S. Vishnu, J. Sanjay, and R. Krishnan
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
M. S. Girishkumar, V. P. Thangaprakash, T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar, K. Suprit, N. Sureshkumar, S. K. Baliarsingh, J. Jofia, Vimlesh Pant, S. Vishnu, G. George,et al.
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Physical and biogeochemical observations from an autonomous profiling Argo float in the Bay of Bengal show significant changes in upper ocean structure during the passage of tropical cyclone (TC) Hudhud (7–14 October 2014). TC Hudhud mixed water from a depth of about 50 m into the surface layers through a combination of upwelling and turbulent mixing. Mixing was extended into the depth of nutricline, the oxycline, and the subsurface‐chlorophyll‐maximum and thus had a strong impact on the biogeochemistry of the upper ocean. Before the storm, the near‐surface layer was nutrient depleted and was thus oligotrophic with the chlorophyll‐a concentration of less than 0.15 mg/m3. Storm mixing initially increased the chlorophyll by 1.4 mg/m3, increased the surface nitrate concentration to about 6.6 μM/kg, and decreased the subsurface dissolved oxygen (30–35 m) to 31% of saturation (140 μM). These conditions were favorable for phytoplankton growth resulting in an estimated increase in primary productivity averaging 1.5 g C·m−2·day−1 over 15 days. During this bloom, chlorophyll‐a increased by 3.6 mg/m3, and dissolved oxygen increased from 111% to 123% of saturation. Similar observations during TC Vardah (6–12 December 2016) showed much less mixing. Our analysis suggests that relatively small (high) translation speed and the presence of cold (warm) core eddy leads to strong (weak) oceanic response during TC Hudhud (TC Vardah). Thus, although cyclones can cause strong biogeochemical responses in the Bay of Bengal, the strength of response depends on the properties of the storm and the prevailing upper ocean structure such as the presence of mesoscale eddies
S. Vishnu, P. A. Francis, S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna, and S. S. C. Shenoi
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sasidharannair Vishnu, Pavanathara Augustine Francis, Satheesh Chandra Shenoi, and Surireddi Satya Venkata Siva Ramakrishna
Wiley
This study investigates the relationship between inter‐decadal variation in the number of monsoon depressions (MDs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is shown that there is an out‐of‐phase variation in the number of MDs over the BoB and the PDO, except during 1927–1945. Quantitative estimates of the relative contributions of individual environmental parameters show that the variation in the mid‐tropospheric relative humidity over the BoB is the primary reason for the observed variation in the number of MDs. It is further postulated that the variation in the sea surface temperature in the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the PDO could be one of the reasons for the changes in the moisture advection over to the BoB and hence the variation in the number of MDs in inter‐decadal timescale.
P. G. Remya, S. Vishnu, B. Praveen Kumar, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair, and B. Rohith
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
AbstractThe link between North Indian Ocean (NIO) high swell events and the meteorological conditions over the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) is explored in this article, using a combination of in situ measurements and model simulations for the year 2005. High waves, without any sign in the local winds, sometimes cause severe flooding events along the south‐west coast of India, locally known as the Kallakkadal events and cause major societal problems along the coasts. In situ observations report 10 high swell events in NIO during 2005. Our study confirms that these events are caused by the swells propagating from south of 30°S. In all cases, 3–5 days prior to the high swell events in NIO, we observed a severe low pressure system, called the Cut‐Off Low (COL) in the Southern Ocean. These COLs are quasistationary in nature, providing strong (∼25 ms−1) and long duration (∼3 days) surface winds over a large fetch; essential conditions for the generation of long‐period swells. The intense equator ward winds associated with COLs in the SIO trigger the generation of high waves, which propagate to NIO as swells. Furthermore, these swells cause high wave activity and sometimes Kallakkadal events along the NIO coastal regions, depending on the local topography, angle of incidence, and tidal conditions. Our study shows that such natural hazards along the NIO coasts can be forecasted at least 2 days in advance if the meteorological conditions of the SIO are properly monitored.
S Vishnu, P A Francis, S S C Shenoi, and S S V S Ramakrishna
IOP Publishing
This study unravels the physical link between the weakening of the monsoon circulation and the decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal. Based on the analysis of the terms of Genesis Potential Index, an empirical index to quantify the relative contribution of large scale environmental variables responsible for the modulation of storms, it is shown here that the reduction in the mid-tropospheric relative humidity is the most important reason for the decrease in the number of monsoon depressions. The net reduction of relative humidity over the Bay of Bengal is primarily due to the decrease in the moisture flux convergence, which is attributed to the weakening of the low level jet, a characteristic feature of monsoon circulation. Further, the anomalous moisture convergence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the rapid warming of the sea surface, reduces the moisture advection into the Bay of Bengal and hence adversely affect the genesis/intensification of monsoon depressions. Hence, the reduction in the number of monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal could be one of the manifestations of the differential rates in the observed warming trend of the Indian Ocean basin.
M. S. Girishkumar, K. Suprit, S. Vishnu, V. P. Thanga Prakash, and M. Ravichandran
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
S. Vishnu and P. A. Francis
Elsevier BV