David Carvalho

Scopus Publications

Climate change impacts on photovoltaic solar energy production in Portugal
D Carvalho, L Faria, R Silva, A Rocha
Energy and Climate Change, 2026
Hourly temporal downscaling of CMIP6 data for photovoltaic energy modelling under climate change: A case study for Portugal
Pablo Montesino Fernández, Alexander Simon Eeles, João Marques, Susana Cardoso Pereira, David Carvalho, et al.
Energy Conversion and Management X, 2026
Climate change impacts on human health in Portugal based on downscaled CMIP6 future climate scenarios: an analysis using thermal comfort indices
Marta Teixeira, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha, Susana Cardoso Pereira
Environmental Research Climate, 2026
This study assesses the projected impacts of climate change on human thermal comfort in mainland Portugal using high-resolution downscaling of a CMIP6 GCM (MPI-ESM-1.2-HR) with the Weather Research and Forecasting model for three CMIP6 future climate scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Two bioclimatic indices—the Thom discomfort index (TDI) and the universal thermal climate index (UTCI)—were analyzed to evaluate changes in population exposure to heat and cold stress. Results indicate a consistent increase in heat-related discomfort across all scenarios and time periods, accompanied by a reduction in cold-related stress. By mid-century (2041–2070), both TDI and UTCI show widespread warming, particularly in spring and summer, with the strongest increases occurring in southern and interior regions. Toward the end of the century (2071–2100), the frequency and duration of high and extreme heat stress days rise substantially, especially under SSP5-8.5, while cold stress days become increasingly rare. These findings highlight a clear shift toward hotter and more uncomfortable climatic conditions throughout Portugal, posing significant health challenges for vulnerable populations. The results underscore the importance of integrating thermal comfort metrics such as TDI and UTCI into climate adaptation and public health planning strategies.
Modelling the ecohydrological responses of two eucalyptus–dominated catchments in Central and Southern Portugal with contrasting edaphoclimatic characteristics to future climate scenarios
João Rocha, Ana Quintela, Sérgio Fabres, David Carvalho, Jan Jacob Keizer, et al.
Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, 2026
From Past to Future: Assessing Ria Formosa’s Suitability for Grooved Carpet Shell Aquaculture
Humberto Pereira, Ana Picado, Ines Alvarez, Magda C. Sousa, Ana C. Brito, et al.
Sci, 2026
Most Portuguese aquaculture farms are located in estuaries and coastal lagoons, which are highly productive, nutrient-rich transition zones that are also among the most vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures and climate change. This study assesses Ria Formosa’s suitability for grooved carpet shell (Ruditapes decussatus) aquaculture, accounting for projected climate change and a potential increase in clam farming production. The methodology involved implementing a numerical modeling system to map key physico-chemical variables under historical (1995–2014) and future (2081–2100) conditions. Model outputs were then used to compute a suitability index (SI), which was converted into aquaculture suitability maps for this species. Results indicate that the hydrodynamic and transport components reproduced tidal propagation and the transport of salinity and heat effectively. In contrast, simulations of water quality variables were less accurate, reflecting the greater complexity and uncertainty in representing biochemical processes. Across both time periods, environmental conditions were generally less favorable in winter and more favorable in spring. Water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration emerged as the dominant drivers of seasonal suitability. Projections suggest that Ria Formosa may become increasingly suitable for grooved carpet shell aquaculture by the end of the century. However, expanding production could compromise ecological balance, reduce resilience, and constrain the system’s long-term sustainable development.
Climatological comparison of continuous and reinitialized dynamical downscaling over the North Atlantic region
Brieuc Thomas, Jose C. Fernández-Alvarez, Xurxo Costoya, Maite deCastro, Raquel Nieto, et al.
Climate Services, 2026
On the Correction of GFS Wind Speed Forecasts in Portugal Using LSTM Networks
Vasco Gomes, David Carvalho, Sónia Gouveia
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2026
Statistical Downscaling of Wind Speed in the Iberian Peninsula Using Machine Learning
João Vieitas, José Contente, David Carvalho, Sónia Gouveia
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2026
Climate-Driven Changes in Air Quality: Trends Across Emission and Socioeconomic Pathways
Alexandra Monteiro, Michael Russo, Silvia Coelho, Diogo Lopes, David Carvalho
Sustainability Switzerland, 2025
Climate change (CC) and air pollution are closely interlinked environmental challenges that significantly affect human health and quality of life, especially in urban and industrialized regions. This study conducted a comprehensive investigation on how future climate scenarios may affect air quality and related human impacts, using a Southern European country (Portugal) for illustration. The study employed the most up-to-date future climate projections (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP) that were dynamically downscaled for Portugal. High-resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model, providing data for relevant meteorological variables that most affect air quality, for three future climate scenarios: fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5), regional inequality (SSP3-7.0), and a middle-of-the-road future (SSP2-4.5). Current and future air quality was simulated with the CHIMERE chemical transport model driven by WRF downscaled data and future emissions from the SSP v2.0 database. Results show that CC will impact nitrogen oxides (NO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations over Portugal, with only agricultural emissions increasing in all scenarios. PM and NO2 will decrease in urban areas, over the short and long term, mainly for more conservative scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), while O3 will increase over mainland Portugal (except for coastal/urban areas). Regarding human health, premature deaths are expected to be highest in urban areas, with reductions projected for NO2 and PM2.5 under SSP2-4.5 and increases in O3-related mortality under SSP5-8.5. Overall, SSP2-4.5 presents the most sustainable outcomes, highlighting the importance of integrating air quality management and health impact assessments into climate adaptation strategies to promote long-term environmental sustainability in southern Europe, consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Moisture and temperature sources were key drivers of the anomalies for the record-breaking of 2023 Amazon drought
José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, David Carvalho, Luis Gimeno
Communications Earth and Environment, 2025
Large-scale evaluation of WRF-chem model and dry deposition schemes during a Saharan dust event over the Iberian Peninsula
Rui Silva, Ana Cristina Carvalho, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha
Atmospheric Environment, 2025
Development of a framework for decarbonising the electricity supply under climate change scenarios
M.A. Russo, D. Carvalho, N. Martins, A. Monteiro
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 2025
Coupled Atmosphere–Fire Modelling of Pyroconvective Activity in Portugal
Ricardo Vaz, Rui Silva, Susana Cardoso Pereira, Ana Cristina Carvalho, David Carvalho, et al.
Fire, 2025
Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study
Mónica Rodrigues, David Carvalho
Atmosphere, 2025
Climate Classification Shifts for Future Climate Change in Portugal
M. Teixeira, A. Rocha, Rui Silva, D. Carvalho
Earth Systems and Environment, 2025
Correction to: High-resolution surface temperature changes for Portugal under CMIP6 future climate scenarios (Scientific Reports, (2024), 14, 1, (17209), 10.1038/s41598-024-67996-6)
D. Carvalho
Scientific Reports, 2024
High-resolution surface temperature changes for Portugal under CMIP6 future climate scenarios
D. Carvalho
Scientific Reports, 2024
High-resolution projections of future FWI conditions for Portugal according to CMIP6 future climate scenarios
Susana Cardoso Pereira, Nuno Monteiro, Ricardo Vaz, David Carvalho
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024
Wake effect impact on the levelized cost of energy in large floating offshore wind farms: A case of study in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula
B. Thomas, X. Costoya, M. deCastro, D. Carvalho, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Energy, 2024
An integrated framework for habitat restoration in fire-prone areas. Part 2 – fire hazard assessment of the different land management scenarios
R. Vaz, P. Maia, J. Keizer, P. Fernandes, S. C. Pereira, et al.
International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2024
An integrated framework for habitat restoration in fire-prone areas: part 1 – co-creation of land management scenarios
P. Maia, S. Corticeiro, R. Vaz, P. M. Fernandes, S. Valente, et al.
International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2024
Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy
M. deCastro, L. Rusu, B. Arguilé-Pérez, A. Ribeiro, X. Costoya, et al.
Renewable Energy, 2024
Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system
Humberto Pereira, Ana Picado, Magda C. Sousa, Ana C. Brito, Beatriz Biguino, et al.
Science of the Total Environment, 2023
The Future Impact of Shipping Emissions on Air Quality in Europe under Climate Change
Michael Russo, David Carvalho, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Alexandra Monteiro
Atmosphere, 2023
Future perspectives for wind and solar electricity production under high-resolution climate change scenarios
M.A. Russo, D. Carvalho, N. Martins, A. Monteiro
Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023
Facing the challenges of air quality and health in a future climate: The Aveiro Region case study
S. Coelho, J. Ferreira, D. Lopes, D. Carvalho, M. Lopes
Science of the Total Environment, 2023
How the new climate scenarios will affect air quality trends: An exploratory research
S. Coelho, S. Rafael, A.P. Fernandes, M. Lopes, D. Carvalho
Urban Climate, 2023
Future weather generator for building performance research: An open-source morphing tool and an application
Eugénio Rodrigues, Marco S. Fernandes, David Carvalho
Building and Environment, 2023
Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America
X. Costoya, M. deCastro, D. Carvalho, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2023
Assessing the Future wind Energy Potential in Portugal Using a CMIP6 Model Ensemble and WRF High-Resolution Simulations
André Claro, João A. Santos, David Carvalho
Energies, 2023
Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments
Nikki C. Privé, Erica L. McGrath-Spangler, David Carvalho, Bryan M. Karpowicz, Isaac Moradi
Tellus Series A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2023
How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming
D. Carvalho, S. Rafael, A. Monteiro, V. Rodrigues, M. Lopes, et al.
Scientific Reports, 2022
Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution under a Climate Change Scenario: Methodology and Case Study Application
Sílvia Coelho, Joana Ferreira, David Carvalho, Myriam Lopes
Sustainability Switzerland, 2022
Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios
D. Carvalho, S. C. Pereira, R. Silva, A. Rocha
Climatic Change, 2022
Editorial: Offshore wind and wave energy and climate change impacts
Adem Akpınar, Paulo Jorge Rosa-Santos, David Carvalho
Frontiers in Energy Research, 2022
A Review on the Current Status of Numerical Weather Prediction in Portugal 2021: Surface–Atmosphere Interactions
Maria José Monteiro, Flavio T. Couto, Mariana Bernardino, Rita M. Cardoso, David Carvalho, et al.
Atmosphere, 2022
Forecasting the inevitable: A review on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy resources
M.A. Russo, D. Carvalho, N. Martins, A. Monteiro
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 2022
Lisbon urban heat island in future urban and climate scenarios
Rui Silva, Ana Cristina Carvalho, Susana Cardoso Pereira, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha
Urban Climate, 2022
Combining offshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy to stabilize energy supply under climate change scenarios: A case study on the western Iberian Peninsula
X. Costoya, M. deCastro, D. Carvalho, B. Arguilé-Pérez, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2022
Climate Change Impact on Source Contributions to the Air Quality in Aveiro Region
Sílvia Coelho, Joana Ferreira, David Carvalho, Ana Isabel Miranda, Myriam Lopes
Springer Proceedings in Complexity, 2022
Decarbonizing the energy supply one pandemic at a time
M.A. Russo, L. Ruivo, D. Carvalho, N. Martins, A. Monteiro
Energy Policy, 2021
Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, X. Costoya, M. deCastro, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021
Temperature and precipitation extremes over the iberian peninsula under climate change scenarios: A review
Susana C. Pereira, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha
Climate, 2021
Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China
X. Costoya, M. deCastro, D. Carvalho, Z. Feng, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Renewable Energy, 2021
Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data
D Carvalho, S Cardoso Pereira, A Rocha
Climatic Change, 2021
Study of urban heat islands using different urban canopy models and identification methods
Rui Silva, Ana Cristina Carvalho, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha
Atmosphere, 2021
Observing system simulation experiments investigating atmospheric motion vectors and radiances from a constellation of 4-5-mm infrared sounders
Will McCarty, David Carvalho, Isaac Moradi, Nikki C. Privé
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2021
Future surface temperature changes for the Iberian Peninsula according to EURO-CORDEX climate projections
D. Carvalho, S. Cardoso Pereira, A. Rocha
Climate Dynamics, 2021
The role of analysis error in the convergence of reanalysis production streams in MERRA-2
Amal El Akkraoui, David Carvalho, Ronald M. Errico, Nikki C. Privé, Michael G. Bosilovich
Monthly Weather Review, 2021
Assessment of hybrid wind-wave energy resource for the NW coast of Iberian Peninsula in a climate change context
Americo Ribeiro, Xurxo Costoya, Maite de Castro, David Carvalho, Joao Miguel Dias, et al.
Applied Sciences Switzerland, 2020
Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula
X. Costoya, A. Rocha, D. Carvalho
Applied Energy, 2020
On the suitability of offshore wind energy resource in the United States of America for the 21st century
X. Costoya, M. deCastro, D. Carvalho, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Applied Energy, 2020
Simulation of atmospheric motion vectors for an observing system simulation experiment
Ronald M. Errico, David Carvalho, Nikki C. Privé, Meta Sienkiewicz
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2020
An assessment of NASA’s GMAO MERRA-2 reanalysis surface winds
D. Carvalho
Journal of Climate, 2019
Europe, China and the United States: Three different approaches to the development of offshore wind energy
M. deCastro, S. Salvador, M. Gómez-Gesteira, X. Costoya, D. Carvalho, et al.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2019
An overview of offshore wind energy resources in Europe under present and future climate
Maite deCastro, Xurxo Costoya, Santiago Salvador, David Carvalho, Moncho Gómez‐Gesteira, et al.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2019
On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean
F. Santos, M. Gómez-Gesteira, M. deCastro, J.A. Añel, D. Carvalho, et al.
Applied Energy, 2018
Modelling resilient measures to climate change impacts on urban air quality
E. Sá, A. Monteiro, A. P. Fernandes, J. Valente, D. Carvalho, et al.
Springer Proceedings in Complexity, 2018
Offshore winds and wind energy production estimates derived from ASCAT, OSCAT, numerical weather prediction models and buoys – A comparative study for the Iberian Peninsula Atlantic coast
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Renewable Energy, 2017
Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Renewable Energy, 2017
Urban resilience to future urban heat waves under a climate change scenario: A case study for Porto urban area (Portugal)
D. Carvalho, H. Martins, M. Marta-Almeida, A. Rocha, C. Borrego
Urban Climate, 2017
Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario
S. Rafael, H. Martins, E. Sá, D. Carvalho, C. Borrego, et al.
Science of the Total Environment, 2016
Investigating ozone high levels and the role of sea breeze on its transport
Alexandra Monteiro, Carla Gama, Marta Cândido, Isabel Ribeiro, David Carvalho, et al.
Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2016
Sensitivity of the WRF model wind simulation and wind energy production estimates to planetary boundary layer parameterizations for onshore and offshore areas in the Iberian Peninsula
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Applied Energy, 2014
Offshore wind energy resource simulation forced by different reanalyses: Comparison with observed data in the Iberian Peninsula
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Applied Energy, 2014
Comparison of different wind products and buoy wind data with seasonality and interannual climate variability in the southern Bay of Biscay (2000-2009)
Inés Alvarez, Moncho Gomez-Gesteira, Maite deCastro, David Carvalho
Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2014
WRF wind simulation and wind energy production estimates forced by different reanalyses: Comparison with observed data for Portugal
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Applied Energy, 2014
Comparison of reanalyzed, analyzed, satellite-retrieved and NWP modelled winds with buoy data along the Iberian Peninsula coast
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, C. Silva Santos
Remote Sensing of Environment, 2014
Comparison between CCMP, QuikSCAT and buoy winds along the Iberian Peninsula coast
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira, I. Alvarez, C. Silva Santos
Remote Sensing of Environment, 2013
Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale-microscale coupling techniques
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, C. Silva Santos, R. Pereira
Applied Energy, 2013
Ocean surface wind simulation forced by different reanalyses: Comparison with observed data along the Iberian Peninsula coast
D. Carvalho, A. Rocha, M. Gómez-Gesteira
Ocean Modelling, 2012
A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy
David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, Carlos Santos
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2012

David Carvalho

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Scopus Publications