Continuous phylogeography reveals shifting environmental drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 spread in Italy, 2016–23 Diletta Fornasiero, Paolo Mulatti, Alice Fusaro, Isabella Monne, Fabiana Gámbaro, et al. Virus Evolution, 2026 The ongoing global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues causing major impacts on poultry, wildlife, and public health. Among the most affected countries in Europe, Italy experienced three major epidemic waves in 2016–23, caused by 2.3.4.4b H5N8 and H5N1 subtypes. Yet, the underlying spatio-temporal dispersal dynamics and drivers of these epidemics remain to be elucidated. Here, we combined viral genome sequencing with continuous phylogeographic inference to reconstruct the evolutionary and spatio-temporal history of these epidemics. By combining genetic data with landscape, poultry-related variables, and wild bird abundances, we explored how the environment was associated with viral diffusion in space and time. We identified distinct diffusion patterns and environmental associations across the three epidemics. The first two waves (2016–17 and 2021–22) were dominated by local poultry-to-poultry transmission in high-density farming areas, with agricultural areas being significantly associated with a relatively higher viral lineage dispersal velocity in 2021–22. In contrast, the most recent wave (2022–23) showed evidence of mid- to long-distance dispersal events positively associated with wetlands, waterbodies, and gull abundances, pointing to a larger role of wild birds in HPAI spatial dynamics. The estimated weighted diffusion coefficients and spatial wavefront distances revealed a shift from localised poultry-driven to long-distance spread, likely related to wild birds. Our findings highlight a progressive shift from poultry-driven epidemics to more complex environmental transmission dynamics involving wild birds and natural habitats. These changes underscore the need to adapt surveillance and control strategies to an evolving and ecologically diverse viral landscape.
Exploring the Role of Wild Bird Species in the Transmission of Avian Influenza to Poultry L. Martelli, D. Fornasiero, J. A. Martínez-Lanfranco, A. Spada, F. Scarton, et al. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2025 Wild aquatic birds are crucial in maintaining the high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. However, the HPAI dynamic at the wild‐domestic interface is still poorly known, and a comprehensive understanding of species that could potentially act as a bridge between wetlands and poultry farms is still lacking. In this study, an eco‐epidemiological framework was used to build species distribution models for 40 wild bird species camera‐trapped at 10 poultry farms in northeastern Italy. The predicted wild bird favorability distributions were used to estimate HPAI outbreak occurrences in the area of interest, using an ensemble approach that included five methodologies: generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM), boosted regression trees (BRTs), random forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The group of species that included most of the Ardeidae (i.e., great egret, purple heron, little egret, and cattle egret), one Galliformes (i.e., common pheasant), and one Gruiformes (i.e., common moorhen) showed the highest importance (IMP = 28%) in explaining the HPAI outbreak probability of occurrence in poultry, highlighting their potential bridging role between the reservoir species and the domestic populations. The second most important group of species (IMP = 17%) included one Anseriformes (i.e., mallard), two Charadriiformes (i.e., black‐headed gull and yellow‐legged gull), and one Ardeidae (i.e., gray heron), remarking their role in the disease ecology. These results underline the complex role of the wild‐domestic interface in the epidemiology of HPAI, suggesting that a broader range of species than what is typically considered might be involved in HPAI virus ecology. Including these groups of species in targeted surveillance programs would help in fine‐tuning sampling efforts and identifying early warning signals of possible transmission to poultry holdings.
Rapid spread of a new West Nile virus lineage 1 associated with increased risk of neuroinvasive disease during a large outbreak in Italy in 2022 Luisa Barzon, Monia Pacenti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Diletta Fornasiero, Federica Gobbo, et al. Journal of Travel Medicine, 2024 Background A new strain of West Nile virus lineage 1 (WNV-1) emerged in the Veneto Region, northern Italy, in 2021, 8 years after the last WNV-1 outbreak in Italy. The virus, which co-circulates with West Nile virus lineage 2 (WNV-2), has become endemic in the region, where, in 2022, most human cases of neuroinvasive disease (WNND) reported in Europe have occurred. Methods Comparative analysis of the epidemiology and clinical presentation of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infection in humans, as well as the temporal and geographic distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 among wild birds and Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Veneto, from 16 May to 21 August 2022, to determine if the high number of WNND cases was associated with WNV-1. Results 222 human cases of WNV infection were confirmed by molecular testing, including 103 with West Nile fever (WNF) and 119 with WNND. The WNV lineage was determined in 201 (90.5%) cases, comprising 138 WNV-1 and 63 WNV-2 infections. In addition, 35 blood donors tested positive, including 30 in whom WNV lineage was determined (13 WNV-1 and 17 WNV-2). Comparative analysis of the distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infections among WNND cases, WNF cases and WNV-positive blood donors showed that WNND patients were more likely to have WNV-1 infection than blood donors (odds ratio 3.44; 95% confidence interval: 1.54–8.24; P = 0.0043). As observed in humans, in wild birds, WNV-1 had a higher infection rate (IR) and showed a more rapid expansion than WNV-2. At variance, the distribution of the two lineages was more even in mosquitoes, but with a trend of rapid increase of WNV-1 IR over WNV-2. Conclusions Comparative analysis of WNV-1 vs WNV-2 infection in humans, wild birds and mosquitos showed a rapid expansion of WNV-1 and suggested that WNV-1-infected patients might have an increased risk to develop severe disease.
Business Intelligence (BI) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools in a coordinated strategy for handling and controlling outbreaks of African Swine Fever Giacomo Nalesso, Rachele Urbani, Clara Tassinato, Vittoria Tregnaghi, Matteo Mazzucato, et al. Proceedings Imcic International Multi Conference on Complexity Informatics and Cybernetics, 2024 African Swine Fever (ASF), a severe swine disease with potential zoonotic implications, historically limited to Sardinia in Italy since 1978, made its mainland debut in January 2022, raising concerns. The genotype found in northwest Italy (genotype II) differs from the Sardinian strain (genotype I). By January 2024, the epidemic had escalated, with 1435 wild boar cases and 21 domestic pig outbreaks reported [6]. The Epidemiology department of the "Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie" (IZSVe) responded with innovative tools. These included a comprehensive data warehouse, integrating farm, processing centre, and slaughterhouse data with Laboratory Information Management Systems and geospatial information. Additionally, an "African Swine Fever/Manager" (ASF-Manager) tracked outbreak specifics, while "IZSVe GIS African Swine Fever" (IZSVeGIS-ASF) provided real-time monitoring and support for control measures. IZSVeGIS-ASF facilitates spatial analysis and filtering of data, offering insights into animal demographics and premises characteristics. Currently exclusive to IZSVe's Epidemiology department, efforts are underway to expand access to local and regional veterinary services, fostering collaborative ASF management. Ongoing enhancements aim to optimize functionality and broaden utilization during ASF outbreaks.
Overview on the Biosecurity Measures of Salmonid Fish Farms: A Case Study in Italy Matteo Mazzucato, Tiziano Dorotea, Eleonora Franzago, Paolo Mulatti, Giulio Marchetti, et al. Fishes, 2023 Italy is one of the main European producers of trout fish, and the most important producing area is the Autonomous Province of Trento (APT) in the North East. The objective of the study was to obtain a snapshot of the trout farms of the APT by identifying biosecurity factors, objectifying them, and classifying the establishments accordingly. Data from 62 salmonid farms were collected using a national checklist in which biosecurity elements were identified and assessed using the method of expert elicitation. The purpose was to evaluate the levels of biosecurity of a trout farm in order to rank the risk of introduction and spread of infectious fish diseases. The main critical factors identified during this study were as following: (i) cleaning and disinfection of the cargo truck; (ii) regular collection, storage, and disposal of dead fish; (iii) presence of anti-bird nets; (iv) use of dedicated equipment for the different sectors of the farm; and (v) presence of external areas dedicated to the loading of dead fish.
Study of the Interface between Wild Bird Populations and Poultry and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Avian Influenza Luca Martelli, Diletta Fornasiero, Francesco Scarton, Arianna Spada, Francesca Scolamacchia, et al. Microorganisms, 2023 Water birds play a crucial role in disseminating and amplifying avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in the environment. However, they may have limited interactions with domestic facilities, raising the hypothesis that other wild birds may play the bridging role in introducing AIVs into poultry. An ornithocoenosis study, based on census-transect and camera-trapping methods, was conducted in 2019 in ten poultry premises in northeast Italy to characterize the bird communities and envisage the species that might act as bridge hosts for AIVs. The data collected were explored through a series of multivariate analyses (correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling), and biodiversity indices (observed and estimated richness, Shannon entropy and Pielou’s evenness). The analyses revealed a high level of complexity in the ornithic population, with 147 censused species, and significant qualitative and quantitative differences in wild bird species composition, both in space and in time. Among these, only a few were observed in close proximity to the farm premises (i.e., Magpies, Blackbirds, Cattle Egrets, Pheasants, Eurasian Collared Doves, and Wood Pigeons), thus suggesting their potential role in spilling over AIVs to poultry; contrarily, waterfowls appeared to be scarcely inclined to close visits, especially during autumn and winter seasons. These findings stress the importance of ongoing research on the wild–domestic bird interface, advocating for a wider range of species to be considered in AIVs surveillance and prevention programs.
Impact of emergency oral rabies vaccination of foxes in northeastern Italy, 28 December 2009-20 January 2010: preliminary evaluation. Euro Surveillance Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles European Communicable Disease Bulletin, 2010
The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges DTS Hayman, S Unwin, K Bateman, CB Behravesh, C Berg, J Bergfeld, ... PLOS Sustainability and Transformation 5 (4), e0000228 , 2026 2026
The evaluation of surveillance systems in veterinary public health: a scoping review on the attributes and assessment frameworks most commonly used M Liliana, S Francesca, M Paolo, C Giovanni, L Caterina, DN Marco Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 106879 , 2026 2026
From Mapping to Prediction: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Methodological Approaches to Assessing Avian Influenza Incursion Risk in Domestic Poultry E Nunney, M Arnold, P Mulatti, YM Chang, J Guitian Available at SSRN 6801478 , 2026 2026
Surveillance systems evaluation in the context of avian diseases: a scoping review on current approaches and attributes G Graziosi, D Fornasiero, L Martella, G Cattoli, P Mulatti, E Catelli, ... Avian Pathology 55 (1), 1-17 , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Continuous phylogeography reveals shifting environmental drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 spread in Italy, 2016–23 D Fornasiero, P Mulatti, A Fusaro, I Monne, F Gámbaro, S Dellicour, ... Virus Evolution 12 (1), veag012 , 2026 2026
Exploring the Use of Passive Samplers for the Surveillance of Avian Influenza Viruses in Wetlands: A Laboratory and Field Validation Study P Mulatti, C Terregino, V Panzarin, M Crimaudo, F Bonfante, S Marciano, ... Springer Verlag , 2025 2025
Exploring the Use of Passive Samplers for the Surveillance of Avian Influenza Viruses in Wetlands: A Laboratory and Field Validation Study V Panzarin, M Crimaudo, F Bonfante, S Marciano, P Berto, S Bofill-Mas, ... Food and Environmental Virology 17 (3), 37 , 2025 2025 Citations: 4
Exploring the role of wild bird species in the transmission of avian influenza to poultry L Martelli, D Fornasiero, JA Martínez-Lanfranco, A Spada, F Scarton, ... Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2025 (1), 2288535 , 2025 2025 Citations: 8
Rapid spread of a new West Nile virus lineage 1 associated with increased risk of neuroinvasive disease during a large outbreak in Italy in 2022 L Barzon, M Pacenti, F Montarsi, D Fornasiero, F Gobbo, E Quaranta, ... Journal of travel medicine 31 (8), taac125 , 2024 2024 Citations: 50
A continuous phylogeographic approach to explore environmental and ecological drivers of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Italy D Fornasiero, A Fusaro, B Zecchin, G Manca, I Monne, S Dellicour, ... Epizone , 2024 2024
Development of a tool to calculate distance for veterinary epidemiological applications M Cazzaro, F Scolamacchia, P Mulatti, N Ferrè AGILE: GIScience Series 5, 19 , 2024 2024
The application of biosecurity practices for preventing avian influenza in North-Eastern Italy turkey farms: An analysis of the point of view and perception of farmers S Crovato, A Menini, P Mulatti, T Dorotea, AR Favretto, F Zaltron, ... Preventive Veterinary Medicine 222, 106084 , 2024 2024 Citations: 9
Datasets, Databases and Repositories on Avian Influenza in England, Italy and Germany: availability, accessibility, and potential use in epidemiological research H Bennani, F Scolamacchia, A Brouwer, A Polhmann, C Staubach, ... 2024
Business Intelligence (BI) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools in a coordinated strategy for handling and controlling outbreaks of African Swine Fever G NALESSO, R URBANI, C TASSINATO, V TREGNAGHI, M MAZZUCATO, ... Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics 22 (3), 1-4 , 2024 2024
Overview on the biosecurity measures of Salmonid fish farms: a case study in Italy M Mazzucato, T Dorotea, E Franzago, P Mulatti, G Marchetti, C Casarotto, ... Fishes 8 (11), 554 , 2023 2023 Citations: 5
Study of the Interface between wild bird populations and poultry and their potential role in the spread of avian influenza L Martelli, D Fornasiero, F Scarton, A Spada, F Scolamacchia, G Manca, ... Microorganisms 11 (10), 2601 , 2023 2023 Citations: 22
P04. 5 Combining biosecurity and spatial information to support decision-making in fresh-water fish farms G Marchetti, P Mulatti, E Franzago, T Dorotea, C Casarotto, N Ferrè, ... GeoVet 2023 International Conference , 2023 2023
P10. 7 Spatial dynamics of mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) and their potential role in the spread of Avian Influenza in Italy M Mazzucato, G Roncalli, D Fornasiero, L Martelli, F Scolamacchia, ... GeoVet 2023 International Conference , 2023 2023
R10. 1 Disentangling the role of wild bird species in Avian Influenza transmission to poultry D Fornasiero, L Martelli, F Scarton, F Scolamacchia, M Mazzucato, ... GeoVet 2023 International Conference , 2023 2023
P04. 4 The model-driven approach to zone geospatial standardisation–the GeoZone project N Ferrè, G Manca, P Mulatti, M Mazzucato, F Sbettega, P Calistri, A Conte, ... GeoVet 2023 International Conference , 2023 2023
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Emergence of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus from a low-pathogenic progenitor I Monne, A Fusaro, MI Nelson, L Bonfanti, P Mulatti, J Hughes, PR Murcia, ... Journal of virology 88 (8), 4375-4388 , 2014 2014 Citations: 203
Genetic diversity of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N8/H5N5) viruses in Italy, 2016–17 A Fusaro, I Monne, P Mulatti, B Zecchin, L Bonfanti, S Ormelli, A Milani, ... Emerging Infectious Diseases 23 (9), 1543 , 2017 2017 Citations: 81
West Nile virus surveillance in 2013 via mosquito screening in northern Italy and the influence of weather on virus circulation M Calzolari, A Pautasso, F Montarsi, A Albieri, R Bellini, P Bonilauri, ... PLoS One 10 (10), e0140915 , 2015 2015 Citations: 79
Ecological niche modelling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species and their geographical association with equine epizootics in Italy L Mughini-Gras, P Mulatti, F Severini, D Boccolini, R Romi, G Bongiorno, ... Ecohealth 11 (1), 120-132 , 2014 2014 Citations: 54
Epidemiology of animal poisoning: An overview on the features and spatio-temporal distribution of the phenomenon in the north-eastern Italian regions L Bille, M Toson, P Mulatti, M Dalla Pozza, F Capolongo, C Casarotto, ... Forensic science international 266, 440-448 , 2016 2016 Citations: 52
Rapid spread of a new West Nile virus lineage 1 associated with increased risk of neuroinvasive disease during a large outbreak in Italy in 2022 L Barzon, M Pacenti, F Montarsi, D Fornasiero, F Gobbo, E Quaranta, ... Journal of travel medicine 31 (8), taac125 , 2024 2024 Citations: 50
Modelling the spatial spread of H7N1 avian influenza virus among poultry farms in Italy I Dorigatti, P Mulatti, R Rosà, A Pugliese, L Busani Epidemics 2 (1), 29-35 , 2010 2010 Citations: 47
Human and entomological surveillance of West Nile fever, dengue and chikungunya in Veneto Region, Italy, 2010-2012 F Gobbi, G Capelli, A Angheben, M Giobbia, M Conforto, M Franzetti, ... BMC infectious diseases 14 (1), 60 , 2014 2014 Citations: 45
Determinants of the population growth of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in a repeatedly affected area in Italy P Mulatti, HM Ferguson, L Bonfanti, F Montarsi, G Capelli, S Marangon Parasites & vectors 7 (1), 26 , 2014 2014 Citations: 43
Active surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in wintering waterbirds in Northeast Italy, 2020–2021 F Gobbo, D Fornasiero, MA De Marco, B Zecchin, P Mulatti, M Delogu, ... Microorganisms 9 (11), 2188 , 2021 2021 Citations: 39
Impact of emergency oral rabies vaccination of foxes in northeastern Italy, 28 December 2009–20 January 2010: preliminary evaluation K Capello, P Mulatti, A Comin, L Gagliazzo, V Guberti, C Citterio, ... Eurosurveillance 15 (28) , 2010 2010 Citations: 36
Factors associated with pre-slaughter mortality in turkeys and end of lay hens G Di Martino, K Capello, E Russo, M Mazzucato, P Mulatti, N Ferrè, ... Animal 11 (12), 2295-2300 , 2017 2017 Citations: 35
Integration of genetic and epidemiological data to infer H5N8 HPAI virus transmission dynamics during the 2016-2017 epidemic in Italy P Mulatti, A Fusaro, F Scolamacchia, B Zecchin, A Azzolini, G Zamperin, ... Scientific Reports 8 (1), 18037 , 2018 2018 Citations: 32
Geographical information systems in the management of the 2009-2010 emergency oral anti-rabies vaccination of foxes in north-eastern Italy P Mulatti, N Ferrè, T Patregnani, L Bonfanti, S Marangon Geospatial Health 5 (2), 217 , 2011 2011 Citations: 31
Inter-annual variability of the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers affecting West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens population dynamics in northeastern Italy D Fornasiero, M Mazzucato, M Barbujani, F Montarsi, G Capelli, P Mulatti Parasites & Vectors 13 (1), 271 , 2020 2020 Citations: 29
Evaluation of interventions and vaccination strategies for low pathogenicity avian influenza: spatial and space–time analyses and quantification of the spread of infection P Mulatti, MEH Bos, L Busani, M Nielen, S Marangon Epidemiology & Infection 138 (6), 813-824 , 2010 2010 Citations: 28
Retrospective and spatial analysis tools for integrated surveillance of cystic echinococcosis and bovine cysticercosis in hypo-endemic areas R Cassini, P Mulatti, C Zanardello, G Simonato, M Signorini, S Cazzin, ... Geospatial Health 8 (2), 509-515 , 2014 2014 Citations: 27