Paolo Mulatti

RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS

Veterinary, Epidemiology, Modeling and Simulation

Scopus Publications

Rapid spread of a new West Nile virus lineage 1 associated with increased risk of neuroinvasive disease during a large outbreak in Italy in 2022
Luisa Barzon, Monia Pacenti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Diletta Fornasiero, Federica Gobbo, Erika Quaranta, Isabella Monne, Alice Fusaro, Andrea Volpe, Alessandro Sinigaglia,et al.
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Abstract Background A new strain of West Nile virus lineage 1 (WNV-1) emerged in the Veneto Region, northern Italy, in 2021, 8 years after the last WNV-1 outbreak in Italy. The virus, which co-circulates with West Nile virus lineage 2 (WNV-2), has become endemic in the region, where, in 2022, most human cases of neuroinvasive disease (WNND) reported in Europe have occurred. Methods Comparative analysis of the epidemiology and clinical presentation of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infection in humans, as well as the temporal and geographic distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 among wild birds and Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Veneto, from 16 May to 21 August 2022, to determine if the high number of WNND cases was associated with WNV-1. Results 222 human cases of WNV infection were confirmed by molecular testing, including 103 with West Nile fever (WNF) and 119 with WNND. The WNV lineage was determined in 201 (90.5%) cases, comprising 138 WNV-1 and 63 WNV-2 infections. In addition, 35 blood donors tested positive, including 30 in whom WNV lineage was determined (13 WNV-1 and 17 WNV-2). Comparative analysis of the distribution of WNV-1 and WNV-2 infections among WNND cases, WNF cases and WNV-positive blood donors showed that WNND patients were more likely to have WNV-1 infection than blood donors (odds ratio 3.44; 95% confidence interval: 1.54–8.24; P = 0.0043). As observed in humans, in wild birds, WNV-1 had a higher infection rate (IR) and showed a more rapid expansion than WNV-2. At variance, the distribution of the two lineages was more even in mosquitoes, but with a trend of rapid increase of WNV-1 IR over WNV-2. Conclusions Comparative analysis of WNV-1 vs WNV-2 infection in humans, wild birds and mosquitos showed a rapid expansion of WNV-1 and suggested that WNV-1-infected patients might have an increased risk to develop severe disease.


Business Intelligence (BI) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools in a coordinated strategy for handling and controlling outbreaks of African Swine Fever
Giacomo Nalesso, Rachele Urbani, Clara Tassinato, Vittoria Tregnaghi, Matteo Mazzucato, Matteo Trolese, Monica Lorenzetto, Simone Rizzo, Paolo Mulatti, Guido Di Martino,et al.
International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics
African Swine Fever (ASF), a severe swine disease with potential zoonotic implications, historically limited to Sardinia in Italy since 1978, made its mainland debut in January 2022, raising concerns. The genotype found in northwest Italy (genotype II) differs from the Sardinian strain (genotype I). By January 2024, the epidemic had escalated, with 1435 wild boar cases and 21 domestic pig outbreaks reported [6]. The Epidemiology department of the "Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie" (IZSVe) responded with innovative tools. These included a comprehensive data warehouse, integrating farm, processing centre, and slaughterhouse data with Laboratory Information Management Systems and geospatial information. Additionally, an "African Swine Fever/Manager" (ASF-Manager) tracked outbreak specifics, while "IZSVe GIS African Swine Fever" (IZSVeGIS-ASF) provided real-time monitoring and support for control measures. IZSVeGIS-ASF facilitates spatial analysis and filtering of data, offering insights into animal demographics and premises characteristics. Currently exclusive to IZSVe's Epidemiology department, efforts are underway to expand access to local and regional veterinary services, fostering collaborative ASF management. Ongoing enhancements aim to optimize functionality and broaden utilization during ASF outbreaks.


Overview on the Biosecurity Measures of Salmonid Fish Farms: A Case Study in Italy
Matteo Mazzucato, Tiziano Dorotea, Eleonora Franzago, Paolo Mulatti, Giulio Marchetti, Claudia Casarotto, Andrea Fabris, Nicola Ferrè, Anna Toffan, Andrea Marsella,et al.
MDPI AG
Italy is one of the main European producers of trout fish, and the most important producing area is the Autonomous Province of Trento (APT) in the North East. The objective of the study was to obtain a snapshot of the trout farms of the APT by identifying biosecurity factors, objectifying them, and classifying the establishments accordingly. Data from 62 salmonid farms were collected using a national checklist in which biosecurity elements were identified and assessed using the method of expert elicitation. The purpose was to evaluate the levels of biosecurity of a trout farm in order to rank the risk of introduction and spread of infectious fish diseases. The main critical factors identified during this study were as following: (i) cleaning and disinfection of the cargo truck; (ii) regular collection, storage, and disposal of dead fish; (iii) presence of anti-bird nets; (iv) use of dedicated equipment for the different sectors of the farm; and (v) presence of external areas dedicated to the loading of dead fish.


Study of the Interface between Wild Bird Populations and Poultry and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Avian Influenza
Luca Martelli, Diletta Fornasiero, Francesco Scarton, Arianna Spada, Francesca Scolamacchia, Grazia Manca, and Paolo Mulatti
MDPI AG
Water birds play a crucial role in disseminating and amplifying avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in the environment. However, they may have limited interactions with domestic facilities, raising the hypothesis that other wild birds may play the bridging role in introducing AIVs into poultry. An ornithocoenosis study, based on census-transect and camera-trapping methods, was conducted in 2019 in ten poultry premises in northeast Italy to characterize the bird communities and envisage the species that might act as bridge hosts for AIVs. The data collected were explored through a series of multivariate analyses (correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling), and biodiversity indices (observed and estimated richness, Shannon entropy and Pielou’s evenness). The analyses revealed a high level of complexity in the ornithic population, with 147 censused species, and significant qualitative and quantitative differences in wild bird species composition, both in space and in time. Among these, only a few were observed in close proximity to the farm premises (i.e., Magpies, Blackbirds, Cattle Egrets, Pheasants, Eurasian Collared Doves, and Wood Pigeons), thus suggesting their potential role in spilling over AIVs to poultry; contrarily, waterfowls appeared to be scarcely inclined to close visits, especially during autumn and winter seasons. These findings stress the importance of ongoing research on the wild–domestic bird interface, advocating for a wider range of species to be considered in AIVs surveillance and prevention programs.


Epidemiology-driven approaches to surveillance in HPAI-vaccinated poultry flocks aiming to demonstrate freedom from circulating HPAIV
Timm Harder, Sjaak de Wit, Jose L. Gonzales, Jeremy H.P. Ho, Paolo Mulatti, Teguh Y. Prajitno, and Arjan Stegeman
Elsevier BV



An integrated system for the management of environmental data to support veterinary epidemiology
Matteo Mazzucato, Giulio Marchetti, Marco Barbujani, Paolo Mulatti, Diletta Fornasiero, Claudia Casarotto, Francesca Scolamacchia, Grazia Manca, and Nicola Ferrè
Frontiers Media SA
Environmental and climatic fluctuations can greatly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases of veterinary concern, or interfere with the implementation of relevant control measures. Including environmental and climatic aspects in epidemiological studies could provide policy makers with new insights to assign resources for measures to prevent or limit the spread of animal diseases, particularly those with zoonotic potential. The ever-increasing number of technologies and tools permits acquiring environmental data from various sources, including ground-based sensors and Satellite Earth Observation (SEO). However, the high heterogeneity of these datasets often requires at least some basic GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and/or coding skills to use them in further analysis. Therefore, the high availability of data does not always correspond to widespread use for research purposes. The development of an integrated data pre-processing system makes it possible to obtain information that could be easily and directly used in subsequent epidemiological analyses, supporting both research activities and the management of disease outbreaks. Indeed, such an approach allows for the reduction of the time spent on searching, downloading, processing and validating environmental data, thereby optimizing available resources and reducing any possible errors directly related to data collection. Although multitudes of free services that allow obtaining SEO data exist nowadays (either raw or pre-processed through a specific coding language), the availability and quality of information can be sub-optimal when dealing with very small scale and local data. In fact, some information sets (e.g., air temperature, rainfall), usually derived from ground-based sensors (e.g., agro-meteo station), are managed, processed and redistributed by agencies operating on a local scale which are often not directly accessible by the most common free SEO services (e.g., Google Earth Engine). The EVE (Environmental data for Veterinary Epidemiology) system has been developed to acquire, pre-process and archive a set of environmental information at various scales, in order to facilitate and speed up access by epidemiologists, researchers and decision-makers, also accounting for the integration of SEO information with locally sensed data.


Integration of Epidemiological and Genomic Data to Investigate H5N1 HPAI Outbreaks in Northern Italy in 2021–2022
Diletta Fornasiero, Alice Fusaro, Bianca Zecchin, Matteo Mazzucato, Francesca Scolamacchia, Grazia Manca, Calogero Terregino, Tiziano Dorotea, and Paolo Mulatti
MDPI AG
Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the similarity of the viruses. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of ‘at-risk contacts’, ‘same owners’, ‘in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap’, ‘genetic differences’, ‘geographic distances’, ‘same species’, and ‘poultry company’ on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection. The variables ‘same poultry company’ (Est. = 0.548, C.I. = [0.179; 0.918]) and ‘risk windows overlap’ (Est. = 0.339, C.I. = [0.309; 0.368]) were associated with a higher probability of link formation, while the ‘genetic differences’ (Est. = −0.563, C.I. = [−0.640; −0.486]) and ‘geographic distances’ (Est. = −0.058, C.I. = [−0.078; −0.038]) indicated a reduced probability. The integration of epidemiological data with genomic analyses allows us to monitor the epidemic evolution and helps to explain the dynamics of lateral spreads casting light on the potential diffusion routes. The 2021–2022 epidemic stresses the need to further strengthen the biosecurity measures, and to encourage the reorganization of the poultry production sector to minimize the impact of future epidemics.


Business Intelligence as a support for epidemiological surveillance in Veneto (North- Eastern Italy): The case of West Nile Disease
Giovanni Cunial, Laura Gagliazzo, Dario Pasqualin, Azzurra Callegaro, Guido Di Martino, Matteo Mazzucato, Paolo Mulatti, Laura Favero, and Grazia Manca
International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics



Mosquitoes of the Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy
Mattia Calzolari, Rosanna Desiato, Alessandro Albieri, Veronica Bellavia, Michela Bertola, Paolo Bonilauri, Emanuele Callegari, Sabrina Canziani, Davide Lelli, Andrea Mosca,et al.




Active surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in wintering waterbirds in northeast Italy, 2020–2021
Federica Gobbo, Diletta Fornasiero, Maria Alessandra De Marco, Bianca Zecchin, Paolo Mulatti, Mauro Delogu, and Calogero Terregino
MDPI AG
The increasing involvement of wild waterfowl in H5 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) circulation continues to pose a threat to animal and public health worldwide. In winter 2020–2021, two field surveillance activities were carried out on a weekly basis, through virological and serological analyses, in 823 hunted and 521 trapped migratory aquatic birds in northeast Italy. Sixty Eurasian teals were recaptured several times, which allowed us to follow the progression of the HPAI H5 infection in naturally infected wild waterfowl. Oropharyngeal, cloacal, and feather swabs (OS, CS and FS) were collected from each duck and tested by real time rRT-PCR Type A influenza. The identified viruses were characterized and pathotyped by sequencing. Several viruses belonging to three different HPAI H5 subtypes were detected: H5N8, H5N5, and H5N1. High prevalence of infection with HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b during November–December 2020 (up to 27.1%) was observed in captured Eurasian teals, while infection rates in hunted dabbling ducks, mainly Eurasian wigeons, showed the highest prevalence of infection in November 2020 (8.9%) and January 2021 (10.2%). All HPAI positive birds were also clinically healthy when recaptured weeks apart. The OS and FS showed the highest detection efficiency of HPAIV. Our results highlight that HPAI passive surveillance should be complemented by a targeted active surveillance to more efficiently detect novel HPAI viruses.


Different environmental gradients associated to the spatiotemporal and genetic pattern of the H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Italy
Francesca Scolamacchia, Paolo Mulatti, Matteo Mazzucato, Marco Barbujani, William T. Harvey, Alice Fusaro, Isabella Monne, and Stefano Marangon
Hindawi Limited
Abstract Comprehensive understanding of the patterns and drivers of avian influenza outbreaks is pivotal to inform surveillance systems and heighten nations’ ability to quickly detect and respond to the emergence of novel viruses. Starting in early 2017, the Italian poultry sector has been involved in the massive H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic that spread in the majority of the European countries in 2016/2017. Eighty‐three outbreaks were recorded in north‐eastern Italy, where a densely populated poultry area stretches along the Lombardy, Emilia‐Romagna and Veneto regions. The confirmed cases, affecting both the rural and industrial sectors, depicted two distinct epidemic waves. We adopted a combination of multivariate statistics techniques and multi‐model regression selection and inference, to investigate how environmental factors relate to the pattern of outbreaks diversity with respect to their spatiotemporal and genetic diversity. Results showed that a combination of eco‐climatic and host density predictors were associated with the outbreaks pattern, and variation along gradients was noticeable among genetically and geographically distinct groups of avian influenza cases. These regional contrasts may be indicative of a different mechanism driving the introduction and spreading routes of the influenza virus in the domestic poultry population. This methodological approach may be extended to different spatiotemporal scale to foster site‐specific, ecologically informed risk mitigating strategies.


Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016–17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy
William T. Harvey, Paolo Mulatti, Alice Fusaro, Francesca Scolamacchia, Bianca Zecchin, Isabella Monne, and Stefano Marangon

Summary Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016–17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north‐eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia‐Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic–temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird‐mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife–domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long‐distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human‐mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.


Inter-annual variability of the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers affecting West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens population dynamics in northeastern Italy
Diletta Fornasiero, Matteo Mazzucato, Marco Barbujani, Fabrizio Montarsi, Gioia Capelli, and Paolo Mulatti
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractBackgroundVector-borne infectious diseases (VBDs) represent a major public health concern worldwide. Among VBDs, West Nile virus (WNV) showed an increasingly wider spread in temperate regions of Europe, including Italy. During the last decade, WNV outbreaks have been recurrently reported in mosquitoes, horses, wild birds, and humans, showing great variability in the temporal and spatial distribution pattern. Due to the complexity of the environment–host–vector–pathogen interaction and the incomplete understanding of the epidemiological pattern of the disease, WNV occurrences can be difficult to predict. The analyses of ecological drivers responsible for the earlier WNV reactivation and transmission are pivotal; in particular, variations in the vector population dynamics may represent a key point of the recent success of WNV and, more in general, of the VBDs.MethodsWe investigated the variations ofCulex pipienspopulation abundance using environmental, climatic and trapping data obtained over nine years (2010 to 2018) through the WNV entomological surveillance programme implemented in northeastern Italy. An information theoretic approach (IT-AICc) and model-averaging algorithms were implemented to examine the relationship between the seasonal mosquito population growth rates and both intrinsic (e.g. intraspecific competition) and extrinsic (e.g. environmental and climatic variables) predictors, to identify the most significant combinations of variables outlining theCx. pipienspopulation dynamics.ResultsPopulation abundance (proxy for intraspecific competition) and length of daylight were the predominant factors regulating the mosquito population dynamics; however, other drivers encompassing environmental and climatic variables also had a significant impact, although sometimes counterintuitive and not univocal. The analyses of the single-year datasets, and the comparison with the results obtained from the overall model (all data available from 2010 to 2018), highlighted remarkable differences in coefficients magnitude, sign and significance. These outcomes indicate that different combinations of factors might have distinctive, and sometimes divergent, effects on mosquito population dynamics.ConclusionsA more realistic acquaintance of the intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms of mosquito population fluctuations in relation to continuous changes in environmental and climatic conditions is paramount to properly reinforce VBDs risk-based surveillance activities, to plan targeted density control measures and to implement effective early detection programmes.


Annual Report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2018
, Adam Brouwer, Jose Gonzales, Adeline Huneau, Paolo Mulatti, Thijs Kuiken, Christoph Staubach, Arjan Stegeman, Sotiria‐Eleni Antoniou, Francesca Baldinelli,et al.
Wiley
Abstract Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.


Mycobacterium caprae in a dairy farm in northeast italy
L. Amato, P. Mulatti, M. Pacciarini, E. Schiavon, M. Zanoni and L. Bonfanti

Veneto region, Northeast Italy, has been declared officially free from bovine tuberculosis since 2008, although the disease is sporadically detected in association with cattle trade. In September 2015, bovine tuberculosis was detected in a dairy cattle farm of the region, in a holding with 69 animals. The herd underwent single intradermal tuberculin testing as part of the regional surveillance plan, and 24 animals resulted positive. Mycobacterium caprae was evidenced in 22 samples, further genotyped by PCR-based assays, as Allgäu type. Epidemiological investigation reported that sixteen animals were introduced from an officially tuberculosis free Member State in previous years. Nevertheless, spoligotyping and multilocus variable tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) indicated that M. caprae was strictly related to the strain circulating in 2007-2009 in Trento province, although no at-risk contacts were described. M. caprae is a zoonotic pathogen and further analyses are warranted in order to control its spread and impact on public health and animal trade.


A new approach to outbreak management for bovine Cystic Echinococcosis cases in hypo-endemic areas
Rudi Cassini, Giulia Simonato, Paolo Mulatti, Silvia Ravagnan, Patrizia Danesi, Ernesto Pascotto, Tatiana Breda, Michele Brichese, Mario Pietrobelli, and Gioia Capelli
Elsevier BV



Avian influenza overview November 2018 – February 2019
, , , Cornelia Adlhoch, Thijs Kuiken, Isabella Monne, Paolo Mulatti, Krzysztof Smietanka, Christoph Staubach, Irene Muñoz Guajardo,et al.
Wiley
No human infections due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) or A(H5N6) viruses ‐ detected in wild birds and poultry outbreaks in Europe ‐ have been reported so far and the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered very low. Between 16 November 2018 and 15 February 2019, two HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds in Denmark and one low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N3) in captive birds in the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). Genetic characterisation of the HPAI A(H5N6) viruses reveals that they cluster with the A(H5N6) viruses that have been circulating in Europe since December 2017. The wild bird species involved were birds of prey and were likely infected due to hunting or scavenging infected wild waterfowl. However, HPAI virus was not detected in other wild birds during this period. Outside the EU, two HPAI outbreaks were reported in poultry during the reporting period from western Russia. Sequence information on an HPAI A(H5N6) virus found in a common gull in western Russia in October 2018 suggests that the virus clusters within clade 2.3.4.4c and is closely related to viruses that transmitted zoonotically in China. An increasing number of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds in Asia, Africa and the Middle East was observed during the time period for this report. Currently there is no evidence of a new HPAI virus incursion from Asia into Europe. However, passive surveillance systems may not be sensitive enough if the prevalence or case fatality in wild birds is very low. Nevertheless, it is important to encourage and maintain a certain level of passive surveillance in Europe testing single sick or dead wild birds and birds of prey as they may be sensitive sentinel species for the presence of HPAI virus in the environment. A well‐targeted active surveillance might complement passive surveillance to collect information on HPAI infectious status of apparently healthy wild bird populations.


Editorial: Epidemiology of avian influenza viruses
Mathilde C. Paul, Timothée Vergne, Paolo Mulatti, Thanawat Tiensin, and Irene Iglesias
Frontiers Media SA
No abstract available Keywords: animal health; avian influenza; control strategies; domestic poultry; epidemiology; surveillance; wild birds.


Avian influenza overview August – November 2018
, , , Cornelia Adlhoch, Adam Brouwer, Thijs Kuiken, Aleksandra Miteva, Paolo Mulatti, Krzysztof Smietanka, Christoph Staubach,et al.
Wiley
Between 16 August and 15 November 2018, 14 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria and seven HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks, one in captive birds in Germany and six in wild birds in Denmark and the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). No human infection due to HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses have been reported in Europe so far. Seroconversion of people exposed during outbreaks in Russia has been reported in one study. Although the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low, appropriate personal protection measures of people exposed will reduce any potential risk. Genetic clustering of the viruses isolated from poultry in Bulgaria suggests three separate introductions in 2016 and a continuing circulation and transmission of these viruses within domestic ducks. Recent data from Bulgaria provides further indication that the sensitivity of passive surveillance of HPAI A(H5N8) in domestic ducks may be significantly compromised. Increased vigilance is needed especially during the periods of cold spells in winter when aggregations of wild birds and their movements towards areas with more favourable weather conditions may be encouraged. Two HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from western Russia. Low numbers of HPAI outbreaks were observed in Africa and Asia, no HPAI cases were detected in wild birds in the time period relevant for this report. Although a few HPAI outbreaks were reported in Africa and Asia during the reporting period, the probability of HPAI virus introductions from non‐EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north‐eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds from breeding and moulting sites to the wintering sites continues. Furthermore, the lower temperatures and ultraviolet radiation in winter can facilitate the environmental survival of any potential AI viruses introduced to Europe.


Integration of genetic and epidemiological data to infer H5N8 HPAI virus transmission dynamics during the 2016-2017 epidemic in Italy
P. Mulatti, A. Fusaro, F. Scolamacchia, B. Zecchin, A. Azzolini, G. Zamperin, C. Terregino, G. Cunial, I. Monne, and S. Marangon
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractBetween October 2016 and December 2017, several European Countries had been involved in a massive Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemic sustained by H5N8 subtype virus. Starting on December 2016, also Italy was affected by H5N8 HPAI virus, with cases occurring in two epidemic waves: the first between December 2016 and May 2017, and the second in July-December 2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in poultry, 67 of which (80.72%) occurring in the second wave. A total of 14 cases were reported in wild birds. Epidemiological information and genetic analyses were conjointly used to get insight on the spread dynamics. Analyses indicated multiple introductions from wild birds to the poultry sector in the first epidemic wave, and noteworthy lateral spread from October 2017 in a limited geographical area with high poultry densities. Turkeys, layers and backyards were the mainly affected types of poultry production. Two genetic sub-groups were detected in the second wave in non-overlapping geographical areas, leading to speculate on the involvement of different wild bird populations. The integration of epidemiological data and genetic analyses allowed to unravel the transmission dynamics of H5N8 virus in Italy, and could be exploited to timely support in implementing tailored control measures.


Avian influenza overview May – August 2018
, , , Cornelia Adlhoch, Thijs Kuiken, Paolo Mulatti, Krzysztof Smietanka, Christoph Staubach, Irene Muñoz Guajardo, Laura Amato,et al.

Between 16 May and 15 August 2018, three highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments and three HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds were reported in Europe. Three low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. Few HPAI and LPAI bird cases have been detected in this period of the year, in accordance with the seasonal expected pattern of LPAI and HPAI. There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe have caused any human infections. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. Several HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from Russia. The presence of the A(H5N2) and A(H5N8) viruses in parts of Russia connected with fall migration routes of wild birds is of concern for possible introduction and spread with wild birds migrating to the EU. Although few AI outbreaks were observed in Africa, Asia and the Middle East during the reporting period, the probability of AI virus introductions from non‐EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north‐eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds will start in the coming weeks. Further, the lower temperatures in autumn and winter may facilitate the environmental survival of avian influenza viruses potentially introduced to Europe.


Avian influenza overview February – May 2018
, , , Cornelia Adlhoch, Adam Brouwer, Thijs Kuiken, Paolo Mulatti, Krzysztof Smietanka, Christoph Staubach, Irene Muñoz Guajardo,et al.
Wiley
Between 16 February and 15 May 2018, three highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6) and 11 HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry holdings, one HPAI A(H5N6) and one HPAI A(H5N8) outbreak in captive birds, and 55 HPAI A(H5N6) wild bird events were reported in Europe. There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe are associated with clades infecting humans. Fewer HPAI wild bird cases have been detected than during the same period of previous year. Most of mortality events among wild birds involved single birds and species listed in the revised list of target species for passive surveillance. Raptor species constitute 74% of the HPAI‐infected wild birds found dead. Those raptor species probably became infected by hunting or scavenging HPAI virus‐positive birds, and so raptor cases may predominate later in the course of an HPAI epidemic. Despite the important HPAI virus incursion via wild birds there have been few associated HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in poultry. Fifteen low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. The situation in Africa and the Middle East should be closely monitored with regards to HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H5N8). Uncontrolled spread of the virus and subsequent further genetic evolution in regions geographically connected to Europe may increase uncertainty and the risk for further dissemination of virus. Long‐distance migrating wild birds from southern Africa, e.g. the common tern (Sterna hirundo), may be included in targeted active surveillance schemes at a few priority locations in Europe in order to detect HPAI A(H5)‐infected migrating birds early. However, the risk of HPAI introduction from non‐EU countries via migratory wild birds to Europe is still considered to be much lower for wild birds crossing the southern borders than for those crossing the north‐eastern borders.


Avian influenza overview November 2017 - February 2018
C. Adlhoch, A. Brouwer, T. Kuiken, P. Mulatti, K. Śmietanka, C. Staubach, P. Willeberg, F. Barrucci, F. Verdonck, L. Amato and Francesca Baldinelli

Between 16 November 2017 and 15 February 2018, one highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6) and five HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry holdings, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in captive birds and 22 HPAI A(H5N6) wild bird events were reported within Europe. There is a lower incursion of HPAI A(H5N6) in poultry compared to HPAI A(H5N8). There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe are associated with clades infecting humans. Clinical signs in ducks infected with HPAI A(H5N8) seemed to be decreasing, based on reports from Bulgaria. However, HPAI A(H5N8) is still present in Europe and is widespread in neighbouring areas. The majority of mortality events of wild birds from HPAIV A(H5) in this three‐month period involved single birds. This indicates that the investigation of events involving single dead birds of target species is important for comprehensive passive surveillance for HPAI A(H5). Moreover, 20 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. The first human case due to avian influenza A(H7N4) was notified in China underlining the threat that newly emerging avian influenza viruses pose for transmission to humans. Close monitoring is required of the situation in Africa and the Middle East with regards to HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H5N8). Uncontrolled spread of virus and subsequent further genetic evolution in regions geographically connected to Europe may increase uncertainty and risk for further dissemination of virus. The risk of HPAI introduction from Third countries via migratory wild birds to Europe is still considered much lower for wild birds crossing the southern borders compared to birds crossing the north‐eastern borders, whereas the introduction via trade is still very to extremely unlikely.


The economic implications of sylvatic rabies eradication in Italy
S. Sartore, P. Mulatti, S. Trestini, M. Lorenzetto, L. Gagliazzo, Stefano Marangon and L. Bonfanti

After more than 10 years of absence, sylvatic rabies re‐appeared in Italy in 2008. To prevent disease spread, three oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns targeting red foxes were performed through manual distribution of vaccine baits between January and September 2009. As these campaigns proved unsuccessful, at the end of December 2009, baits started being distributed using helicopters, allowing uniform coverage of larger areas in a shorter time period. From winter 2009 to autumn 2016, a total of 15 ORV campaigns (four emergency, four regular and seven preventive ORV) were implemented through aerial distribution of baits. In this study, we assessed the costs of the aerial ORV campaigns, which were aimed at eradicating the disease and reobtaining the rabies‐free status. Cumulative costs per km2 were estimated at €59.45 during emergency campaigns and ranged between €51.94 and €65.67 in the regular vaccinations. The main portion of costs for ORV programmes were related to baits supply and distribution: €49.24 (82.83%) in emergency campaigns and from €40.33 to € 43.35 in regular ORVs (71.97% and 66.02%, respectively). At the end of each ORV campaign, the efficacy of vaccination activities was estimated by assessing the proportion of foxes testing positive for tetracycline biomarker in jawbone, indicating bait intake. Results revealed that the proportion of foxes that ingested baits varied between 70.97% and 95.51%. Statistical analysis indicated that reducing the density of dropped baits could potentially lead to a cost‐saving of 22.81%, still maintaining a satisfactory level of bait intake by the fox population.


Exploring the use of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) counts during deer censuses as a tool to evaluate the fox population trend in the framework of disease surveillance
F. Obber, K. Capello, P. Mulatti, M. Lorenzetto, Stefano Vendrami and C. Citterio

Acknowledgements This work was partially funded by the research project RC IZSVe 19-2010, granted by the Italian Ministry of Health. The Authors are grateful to the Belluno Provincial Police, the Carabinieri Forestali of Belluno and to all the Hunting Preserves who collaborated in the field. The Authors are also grateful to the Partners of the research projects RC IZSVe 19-2010, RC IZSVe 08-2012 and RC IZSVe 01-2013 for their valuable suggestions, to Claudia Casarotto for editing support and to Isabella and Philip McGuinness for English supervision. Abstract

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