rafael confetti Gatsios
@isg.br
ISG Business & Economics School
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Vinícius Gabriel Silva Cintra, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Vinicius Medeiros Magnani, Carolina Trinca Paulino, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
Wiley
ABSTRACT The supplementary health sector in Brazil plays an essential role, offering access to private health services for more than a quarter of the population. However, a continuous decrease in the number of Health Insurance Providers (HIPs) indicates a market concentration process, posing socioeconomic risks. To address the impacts of these closures, this study develops a predictive model to identify the key factors leading to corporate failure. A major limitation of existing research is its reliance on ambiguous insolvency proxies, such as negative net equity. This study fills a critical gap by adopting a more robust definition of failure: the compulsory termination of a provider's activities by the national regulatory agency (ANS). Applying logistic regression to a sample of 677 providers from 2014 to 2020, the model identified the EBITDA margin, net equity on total assets, working capital on total revenues, and financial assets on current liability as significant predictors. Notably, the model revealed that high volumes of short‐term receivables relative to current liabilities are positively correlated with the probability of failure, suggesting this metric can mask underlying financial distress. Among categorical variables, being a self‐insurer or a health cooperative was found to reduce the chances of failure. The model demonstrated high discriminative capacity (92%) and achieved 77.8% accuracy in forecasting failures in the sample test. The findings provide a crucial early warning tool for regulators, HIP managers, and stakeholders to enhance financial risk management and prevent service disruptions in the supplementary health sector.
Vanessa Anelli Borges de Carvalho, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Vinicius Medeiros Magnani, Carolina Trinca Paulino, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
MDPI AG
This research investigates the extent to which behavioral biases—specifically overconfidence and representativeness heuristic—affect linguistic tone, narrative structure, and predictive accuracy of financial reports produced by investment analysts operating across diverse global markets. Drawing upon a comprehensive dataset comprising 1575 equity recommendation reports authored by 15 analysts from four major international investment banks between 2019 and 2022, the study evaluates how cognitive tendencies shape report composition and forecast precision. A mixed-methods approach was employed, incorporating qualitative textual analysis and quantitative modeling through random-effects panel regressions. Key constructs assessed include narrative complexity, optimism, visual content usage, and forecast deviation metrics. Our findings reveal that overconfidence significantly influences the tone and detail of analyst reports but does not demonstrably impact projection accuracy. Conversely, representativeness heuristics were not found to consistently affect either report language or earnings-per-share forecast errors. Institutional affiliation emerged as a significant determinant of predictive success, while demographic factors such as gender, native language, and geographic region had limited explanatory power. These findings imply that investors should treat report tone as an indicator of analyst disposition rather than forecast quality, while financial institutions may benefit from training programs aimed at mitigating narrative and stylistic biases in analyst communication.
Vinícius Veloso, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, and Fabiano Guasti Lima
MDPI AG
This study examines how cumulative abnormal returns (CARs, the sum of abnormal returns over a period) and volatility behave around Bitcoin halving events, focusing on whether these patterns have evolved as the cryptocurrency market matures. Halvings are periodic events defined by Bitcoin’s algorithm, during which the reward—in the form of newly issued bitcoins—paid to miners for validating network transactions is reduced, impacting miners’ profitability and potentially influencing the asset’s price due to a decreased supply. To carry out the analysis, we collected data on returns and risk for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halving events and compared abnormal returns before and around the event, focusing on the 2020 and 2024 halvings. The results reveal significant shifts in Bitcoin’s price behavior within the event window, with an increased occurrence of abnormal returns in 2020 and 2024, alongside variations in average return, volatility, and maximum drawdown across all events. These findings suggest that Bitcoin’s returns and volatility during halvings are decreasing as the cryptocurrency market becomes more regulated and attracts greater participation from institutional investors and governments.
Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, Antonio Daniel Ricardo Caluz, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Fabiano Guasti Lima
Global Business Review SAGE Publications
The present study aims to analyse the relationship between fiscal and monetary credibility and the volatility of the Brazilian stock market index, Ibovespa. The results demonstrate that the greater the credibility of the target imposed by the Brazilian Central Bank, the more predictable and stable are the macroeconomic variables and the greater the confidence of economic agents in the Brazilian stock market. We can conclude that the greater the fiscal and monetary credibility, the better is the performance of the stock market.
Bruno Figlioli, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Fabiano Guasti Lima
Wiley
AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between the cash conversion cycle (CCC) and the financial and market performances of publicly traded” firms in six Latin American (LatAm) countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The analysis covers the period from 2000 to 2018. The results indicate that increases in CCC negatively impact the generation of operating cash flows and long‐term investments, and increase financial risk. Other findings suggest that the mechanisms through which CCC affects a firm's financial performance can provide a satisfactory explanation of its market performance. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that CCC is a relevant driver of value in working capital management in undeveloped or emerging economies.
Josiane Da Conceição Bitela Da Silva, Tany Ingrid Sagredo Marin, Katia Abbas, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Carlos Alberto Grespan Bonacim, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
MDPI AG
Objectives: Investigating if the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior of public and private hospitals in Brazil. Methods: In order to test the sticky cost phenomenon in a different sector of companies and industries, we used panel data regression to investigate the asymmetric cost behavior in Brazilian hospitals, analyzing the hospital cost behavior regarding the variation in revenues and verifying whether the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior. As a result, this research took the findings obtained by the models applied to data from the 101 hospitals comprising the sample, spread over the 2010–2019 period. The research was divided into four sections. The first section tested asymmetry for fixed assets over total assets for hospitals in general. The second section divided the sample into public and private hospitals. The third section analyzed the sample of conglomerates against a single hospital. Finally, the fourth section tested the asymmetry of the hospitals in the sample measured by the number of beds. Results: The evidence documented here partially confirms the results of literature on the existence of asymmetric cost behavior regarding variations in revenue. The H1 hypothesis that the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior was confirmed, especially for private and small hospitals regarding fixed assets.
Everton Macedo De Held, Rosana Aparecida Pereira, André Luís Botelh, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Andréa Cândido dos Reis, and Carlos Alberto Grespan Bonacim
Elite Scientific Forum
The efficiency of the implementation of Dry Law II as a factor to reduce the costs of the Unified Health System linked to the care and treatment of motorcyclists and injured passengers for the historical series between the years 1998 to 2019 for the region Southeast Brazil. The research data were obtained from DATASUS, a database referring to admissions made through the AIH (Authorization for Hospital Admission) sent by SUS (Unified Health System) hospital units (public or private insured). The results found show a significant relation in the decrease of the average cost linked to the attendance of motorcyclists in the period after the implementation of Dry Law II for the analyzed states. The control variables in this study did not show a
Bruno Uekane Okumura, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Márcia Mitie Durante Maemura, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
Emerald
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the occurrence of the decoy effect in stock investment decisions based on fundamental analysis.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the decoy effect was investigated by applying two questionnaires, one of them with the presence of a decoy alternative, to a set of 224 respondents with knowledge of business fundamentals, simulating investment decisions in stocks of companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange. The data analysis was performed using the Fisher's exact test, Student's t-test and ANOVA. The research also aimed to detect a potential relationship between the variables gender, age, degree and professional experience with the type of decision made.FindingsThe results pointed to the occurrence of the decoy effect when analysing the general response data. However, such evidence was not confirmed when the sample was analysed by classes (gender, course, age and professional experience). There is no statistical evidence that the decoy effect influences classes.Originality/valueThe recent decoy effect literature is little explored in investment decision-making. This study is unique in examining the decoy effect in investment decisions in the Brazilian context.
Guilherme Bannwart Elias, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Vinícius Medeiros Magnani
Fundacion Universitaria Konrad Lorenz
Objectives: Small-sized financial institutions stand out in serving SMEs due to their comparative advantages in the use of relationship-based credit. This study explores the impact of the relationship between a small financial institution and SMEs on credit access conditions. Methodology: The research employs the ordinary least square multiple regression method (OLS) on a dataset comprising 194 loan agreements from a small financial institution, which were contracted by 43 SMEs. The dataset includes financial information and records regarding the relationship strength with the creditor from 2015 to 2019. Results: The parameters of the OLS models that measured the association between the cost of credit, credit line available and average maturity with the bank relationship profile showed statistically significant results. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the duration of the banking relationship and the number of services contracted do not significantly affect the cost of credit. However, a noteworthy association is observed between credit concentration within the small-sized bank and higher costs for clients. Additionally, the length of the banking relationship directly influences the credit line available to SMEs. Interestingly, the impact of guarantees offered on credit conditions does not justify long credit transactions. Furthermore, an inverse relationship emerges between the credit rating of SMEs and the credit term.
Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Nelson Oliveira Stefanelli, Tabajara Pimenta, Carlos Alberto Grespan Bonacim, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
Elsevier BV
Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, Marcelo Augusto Ambrozini, Rafael Moreira Antonio, and Rafael Confetti Gatsios
Journal of Risk and Financial Management MDPI AG
Given the recent Brazilian economic scenario, characterized by political uncertainties and economic instabilities, it is essential for companies to engage in hedging as part of their financial policy in order to prevent their results from being affected by market frictions. In this context, the present study aimed to verify the impact of hedging on the agency costs of Brazilian companies. The methodology used was that of panel data contemplating a manually collected database of 154 companies between 2010 and 2017 (all companies that use derivatives for hedging). The results obtained agree with the literature on hedging and agency costs, indicating that the greater the use of hedging, the lower the agency costs faced by shareholders, expanding on the discussions involving developed markets. This relationship shows that by using hedging in a company’s financial policy, managers can minimize the impacts of market frictions and reduce the residual losses of shareholders in relation to what would otherwise occur.
RAFAEL C. GATSIOS, FABIANO G. LIMA, LUIZ E. GAIO, and TABAJARA PIMENTA JUNIOR
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
ABSTRACT Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period.
Fabiano Guasti Lima, Bruno Figlioli, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Alexandre Assaf Neto
Fundacion Universitaria Konrad Lorenz
R E S U M E N Valoración de empresas en Brasil: una discrepancia entre teoría y práctica Valuation of companies in Brazil: a conflict between theory and practice Fabiano Guasti Lima1, Bruno Figlioli2, Rafael Confetti Gatsios3 y Alexandre Assaf Neto4 1 Ph.D in Administration, Professor at the University of São Paulo. Brazil. Email address: fabianoguastilima@gmail.com , ORCID: 0000-0003-4776-3673. 2 Ph.D in Controllership and Accounting. Professor at the University of São Paulo. Brazil. Email address: brunofig@ymail.com , ORCID: 0000-0003-4345-2595. 3 Ph.D in Controllership and Accounting. Professor at the University of São Paulo. Brazil. (Corresponding Author) Email address: rafaelgatsios@fearp.usp.br, ORCID: 0000-0003-4364-7157. 4 Ph.D in Administration, Instituto ASSAF. Brazil. Email address: institutoassaf@gmail.com , ORCID: 0000-0002-0625-8841. Received on February 20, 2019 Accepted on June 12, 2019 Available online July 30, 2019 JEL classification: G12, G17, G11, G13
Rogiene Batista dos Santos, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Rodrigo Borges de Almeida
Informa UK Limited
Rafael Moreira Antônio, Luciana Cardoso Siqueira Ambrozini, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, and Vinícius Medeiros Magnani
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
RAFAEL CONFETTI GATSIOS, JOSÉ MARCOS DA SILVA, MARCELO AUGUSTO AMBROZINI, ALEXANDRE ASSAF NETO, and FABIANO GUASTI LIMA
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
ABSTRACT Purpose: This study aims to assess the impact of adopting IFRS standard on the equity cost of Brazilian open capital companies in the period of 2004-2013. Originality/gap/relevance/implications: The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards aims to increase the quality of accounting information. Studies performed in Europe suggest that, after the adoption of the IFRS standard, there was a reduction in the equity cost of companies due to the reduction of information asymmetry and risk. Key methodological aspects: The equity cost was calculated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) adapted to the Brazilian case. The empirical strategy was the difference analysis in differences, comparing the results of companies that voluntarily adopted the IFRS with companies that adopted IFRS after the mandatory adoption period. Summary of key results: The results indicate that the adoption of the IFRS standard does not contribute to reduce the equity cost in Brazil. Key considerations/conclusions: Suggesting that the process of adopting the international accounting standard may take more time to impact the equity cost of Brazilian open capital companies, since the impact of IFRS is not related only with the adoption, but also with its use by companies and users.