Forecast of Corporate Failures in the Health Insurance Providers: An Analysis of the Supplementary Brazilian Health Sector Vinícius Gabriel Silva Cintra, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Vinicius Medeiros Magnani, Carolina Trinca Paulino, Rafael Confetti Gatsios International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 2026 The supplementary health sector in Brazil plays an essential role, offering access to private health services for more than a quarter of the population. However, a continuous decrease in the number of Health Insurance Providers (HIPs) indicates a market concentration process, posing socioeconomic risks. To address the impacts of these closures, this study develops a predictive model to identify the key factors leading to corporate failure. A major limitation of existing research is its reliance on ambiguous insolvency proxies, such as negative net equity. This study fills a critical gap by adopting a more robust definition of failure: the compulsory termination of a provider's activities by the national regulatory agency (ANS). Applying logistic regression to a sample of 677 providers from 2014 to 2020, the model identified the EBITDA margin, net equity on total assets, working capital on total revenues, and financial assets on current liability as significant predictors. Notably, the model revealed that high volumes of short‐term receivables relative to current liabilities are positively correlated with the probability of failure, suggesting this metric can mask underlying financial distress. Among categorical variables, being a self‐insurer or a health cooperative was found to reduce the chances of failure. The model demonstrated high discriminative capacity (92%) and achieved 77.8% accuracy in forecasting failures in the sample test. The findings provide a crucial early warning tool for regulators, HIP managers, and stakeholders to enhance financial risk management and prevent service disruptions in the supplementary health sector.
Behavioral Biases and Report Accuracy: An Empirical Study of Investment Analysts Across Global Markets Vanessa Anelli Borges de Carvalho, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Vinicius Medeiros Magnani, Carolina Trinca Paulino, Rafael Confetti Gatsios International Journal of Financial Studies, 2025 This research investigates the extent to which behavioral biases—specifically overconfidence and representativeness heuristic—affect linguistic tone, narrative structure, and predictive accuracy of financial reports produced by investment analysts operating across diverse global markets. Drawing upon a comprehensive dataset comprising 1575 equity recommendation reports authored by 15 analysts from four major international investment banks between 2019 and 2022, the study evaluates how cognitive tendencies shape report composition and forecast precision. A mixed-methods approach was employed, incorporating qualitative textual analysis and quantitative modeling through random-effects panel regressions. Key constructs assessed include narrative complexity, optimism, visual content usage, and forecast deviation metrics. Our findings reveal that overconfidence significantly influences the tone and detail of analyst reports but does not demonstrably impact projection accuracy. Conversely, representativeness heuristics were not found to consistently affect either report language or earnings-per-share forecast errors. Institutional affiliation emerged as a significant determinant of predictive success, while demographic factors such as gender, native language, and geographic region had limited explanatory power. These findings imply that investors should treat report tone as an indicator of analyst disposition rather than forecast quality, while financial institutions may benefit from training programs aimed at mitigating narrative and stylistic biases in analyst communication.
Is Bitcoin’s Market Maturing? Cumulative Abnormal Returns and Volatility in the 2024 Halving and Past Cycles Vinícius Veloso, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, Fabiano Guasti Lima Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2025 This study examines how cumulative abnormal returns (CARs, the sum of abnormal returns over a period) and volatility behave around Bitcoin halving events, focusing on whether these patterns have evolved as the cryptocurrency market matures. Halvings are periodic events defined by Bitcoin’s algorithm, during which the reward—in the form of newly issued bitcoins—paid to miners for validating network transactions is reduced, impacting miners’ profitability and potentially influencing the asset’s price due to a decreased supply. To carry out the analysis, we collected data on returns and risk for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halving events and compared abnormal returns before and around the event, focusing on the 2020 and 2024 halvings. The results reveal significant shifts in Bitcoin’s price behavior within the event window, with an increased occurrence of abnormal returns in 2020 and 2024, alongside variations in average return, volatility, and maximum drawdown across all events. These findings suggest that Bitcoin’s returns and volatility during halvings are decreasing as the cryptocurrency market becomes more regulated and attracts greater participation from institutional investors and governments.
The Relationship of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Credibility with the Stock Market Volatility in a Developing Country Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, Antonio Daniel Ricardo Caluz, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Fabiano Guasti Lima Global Business Review, 2025 The present study aims to analyse the relationship between fiscal and monetary credibility and the volatility of the Brazilian stock market index, Ibovespa. The results demonstrate that the greater the credibility of the target imposed by the Brazilian Central Bank, the more predictable and stable are the macroeconomic variables and the greater the confidence of economic agents in the Brazilian stock market. We can conclude that the greater the fiscal and monetary credibility, the better is the performance of the stock market.
Influence of the cash conversion cycle on firm's financial performance: Evidence from publicly traded firms in the Latin American context Bruno Figlioli, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Fabiano Guasti Lima Accounting and Finance, 2024 This study investigates the relationship between the cash conversion cycle (CCC) and the financial and market performances of publicly traded” firms in six Latin American (LatAm) countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The analysis covers the period from 2000 to 2018. The results indicate that increases in CCC negatively impact the generation of operating cash flows and long‐term investments, and increase financial risk. Other findings suggest that the mechanisms through which CCC affects a firm's financial performance can provide a satisfactory explanation of its market performance. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that CCC is a relevant driver of value in working capital management in undeveloped or emerging economies.
Asymmetry in Cost Behavior in Brazilian Hospitals Josiane Da Conceição Bitela Da Silva, Tany Ingrid Sagredo Marin, Katia Abbas, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Carlos Alberto Grespan Bonacim, et al. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2024 Objectives: Investigating if the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior of public and private hospitals in Brazil. Methods: In order to test the sticky cost phenomenon in a different sector of companies and industries, we used panel data regression to investigate the asymmetric cost behavior in Brazilian hospitals, analyzing the hospital cost behavior regarding the variation in revenues and verifying whether the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior. As a result, this research took the findings obtained by the models applied to data from the 101 hospitals comprising the sample, spread over the 2010–2019 period. The research was divided into four sections. The first section tested asymmetry for fixed assets over total assets for hospitals in general. The second section divided the sample into public and private hospitals. The third section analyzed the sample of conglomerates against a single hospital. Finally, the fourth section tested the asymmetry of the hospitals in the sample measured by the number of beds. Results: The evidence documented here partially confirms the results of literature on the existence of asymmetric cost behavior regarding variations in revenue. The H1 hypothesis that the proportion of fixed assets over total assets is positively associated with the asymmetric cost behavior was confirmed, especially for private and small hospitals regarding fixed assets.
Dry Law II and the Costs of the Unified Health System with Trauma for Motorcyclists Everton Macedo De Held, Rosana Aparecida Pereira, André Luís Botelh, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, et al. Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, 2024 The efficiency of the implementation of Dry Law II as a factor to reduce the costs of the Unified Health System linked to the care and treatment of motorcyclists and injured passengers for the historical series between the years 1998 to 2019 for the region Southeast Brazil. The research data were obtained from DATASUS, a database referring to admissions made through the AIH (Authorization for Hospital Admission) sent by SUS (Unified Health System) hospital units (public or private insured). The results found show a significant relation in the decrease of the average cost linked to the attendance of motorcyclists in the period after the implementation of Dry Law II for the analyzed states. The control variables in this study did not show a
Behavioural finance: the decoy effect on stock investment decisions Bruno Uekane Okumura, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Márcia Mitie Durante Maemura, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Rafael Confetti Gatsios Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science, 2023 PurposeThis study aims to investigate the occurrence of the decoy effect in stock investment decisions based on fundamental analysis.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the decoy effect was investigated by applying two questionnaires, one of them with the presence of a decoy alternative, to a set of 224 respondents with knowledge of business fundamentals, simulating investment decisions in stocks of companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange. The data analysis was performed using the Fisher's exact test, Student's t-test and ANOVA. The research also aimed to detect a potential relationship between the variables gender, age, degree and professional experience with the type of decision made.FindingsThe results pointed to the occurrence of the decoy effect when analysing the general response data. However, such evidence was not confirmed when the sample was analysed by classes (gender, course, age and professional experience). There is no statistical evidence that the decoy effect influences classes.Originality/valueThe recent decoy effect literature is little explored in investment decision-making. This study is unique in examining the decoy effect in investment decisions in the Brazilian context.
The effect of relationship banking on SMEs’ credit access conditions: Empirical evidence from Brazil Guilherme Bannwart Elias, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Rafael Confetti Gatsios, Vinícius Medeiros Magnani Suma De Negocios, 2023 Objectives: Small-sized financial institutions stand out in serving SMEs due to their comparative advantages in the use of relationship-based credit. This study explores the impact of the relationship between a small financial institution and SMEs on credit access conditions. Methodology: The research employs the ordinary least square multiple regression method (OLS) on a dataset comprising 194 loan agreements from a small financial institution, which were contracted by 43 SMEs. The dataset includes financial information and records regarding the relationship strength with the creditor from 2015 to 2019. Results: The parameters of the OLS models that measured the association between the cost of credit, credit line available and average maturity with the bank relationship profile showed statistically significant results. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the duration of the banking relationship and the number of services contracted do not significantly affect the cost of credit. However, a noteworthy association is observed between credit concentration within the small-sized bank and higher costs for clients. Additionally, the length of the banking relationship directly influences the credit line available to SMEs. Interestingly, the impact of guarantees offered on credit conditions does not justify long credit transactions. Furthermore, an inverse relationship emerges between the credit rating of SMEs and the credit term.
Hedging Policies to Reduce Agency Costs in Brazil Vinícius Medeiros Magnani, Marcelo Augusto Ambrozini, Rafael Moreira Antonio, Rafael Confetti Gatsios Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2022
