Davide Guido
Verified @unipv.it
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Mariangela Rondanelli, Filip Haxhari, Clara Gasparri, Gaetan Claude Barrile, Alessandro Cavioni, Davide Guido, Francesca Mansueto, Marco Zese, Giuseppe Mazzola, Alessia Moroni,et al.
Wiley
Mariangela Rondanelli, Riccardo Anselmo Ferrario, Gaetan Claude Barrile, Davide Guido, Clara Gasparri, Cinzia Ferraris, Alessandro Cavioni, Francesca Mansueto, Giuseppe Mazzola, Zaira Patelli,et al.
Mary Ann Liebert Inc
Rice is generally considered a high-glycemic index (GI) food, but numerous studies show that parboiling reduces the GI. There are no studies on GI of Indica and Japonica subspecies parboiled rice grown in Italy. The aim of this study was (1) to evaluate GI in different varieties of parboiled rice (ribe, white and brown long B, basmati, black, red, roma, and arborio); (2) to evaluate GI of same variety of rice subjected to different rice parboiling processes (parboiled ribe and parboiled long B with two different methods: flora and conventional method); (3) to evaluate GI of two by-products of parboiled rice: white and brown rice cake. Participants were 10 healthy individuals (20-30 years old, body mass index 18.5-25 kg/m2). Proximate composition and GI were determined by using standard methods. All parboiled rice assessed is low-GI (brown long B 48.1 ± 6.4 by flora method, ribe 52.0 ± 1.8 GI by flora method, black rice 52.3 ± 7.6 by flora method, long B 52.4 ± 3.9 by flora method, long B 53.4 ± 5.1 by conventional method, ribe 54.4 ± 4.3 GI by conventional method, Roma 54.4 ± 7.9 GI by flora method, and arborio 54.4 ± 7.9 GI by flora method), except red rice that is of medium-GI (56.1 ± 7.0 GI), and both classic and brown cakes that are high-GI (respectively, 83.3 ± 8.9 GI and 102.2 ± 5.5 GI). Parboiled rice is low-GI and so is favorable for the dietary management of metabolic disorders and celiac disease. Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05333081).
Simone Perna, Clara Gasparri, Sabika Allehdan, Antonella Riva, Giovanna Petrangolini, Cinzia Ferraris, Davide Guido, Tariq A. Alalwan, and Mariangela Rondanelli
MDPI AG
This study aims to examine the relation between visceral adipose tissue (VAT), as a proxy for metabolically unhealthy obesity, muscle, as a proxy for muscle quality and sarcopenia, and bone, as a proxy for bone mineral density and osteoporosis. Other variables, such metabolic syndrome, nutritional status, number of diseases, kidney and liver function and inflammation were assessed as direct or indirect effects. This study used structural equation modeling (SEM) in a sample of 713 older women (mean age 82.1 ± 6.3). The results indicate a positive statistically significant association between bone and muscle mass (β = 0.195, <0.001) and nutritional status and muscle mass (β = 0.139, p < 0.001), but negative association between age with muscle mass (β = −0.509, p < 0.001) and nutritional status (estimates: −2.264, p < 0.001). A negative association between VAT and muscle mass was also reported (β = −1.88, p < 0.001). A negative statistically significant association was reported between bone mineral density and functional status (β = −1.081, p < 0.001), and a positive association between functional status and muscle mass (β = 9.000, p < 0.001). In addition, functional status was positively statistically associated with cognitive performance (β = 0.032, p < 0.001). The SEM method demonstrates that the VAT, muscle mass and bone mineral density are associated, but the form of the relation is different in relation to different factors, such as nutritional status, mental and functional status, age, and number of pathologies, having different impacts on metabolic outcomes. SEM is a feasible technique for understanding the complex mechanisms of frailty in the elderly.
Filip Haxhari, Francesco Savorani, Mariangela Rondanelli, Enrico Cantaluppi, Luigi Campanini, Edoardo Magnani, Cinzia Simonelli, Gentian Gavoci, Alessandro Chiadò, Mattia Sozzi,et al.
Frontiers Media SA
IntroductionGiven that rice serves as a crucial staple food for a significant portion of the global population and with the increasing number of individuals being diagnosed with diabetes, a primary objective in genetic improvement is to identify and cultivate low Glycemic Index (GI) varieties. This must be done while ensuring the preservation of grain quality.Methods25 Italian rice genotypes were characterized calculating their GI “in vivo” and, together with other 29 Italian and non-Italian genotypes they were studied to evaluate the grain inner structure through Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) technique. Using an ad-hoc developed algorithm, morphological features were extracted from the FESEM images, to be then inspected by means of multivariate data analysis methods.Results and DiscussionLarge variability was observed in GI values (49 to 92 with respect to glucose), as well as in endosperm morphological features. According to the percentage of porosity is possible to distinguish approximately among rice varieties having a crystalline grain (&lt; 1.7%), those intended for the preparation of risotto (&gt; 5%), and a third group having intermediate characteristics. Waxy rice varieties were not united by a certain porosity level, but they shared a low starch granules eccentricity. With reference to morphological features, rice varieties with low GI (&lt;55) seem to be characterized by large starch granules and low porosity values. Our data testify the wide variability of Italian rice cultivation giving interesting information for future breeding programs, finding that the structure of the endosperm can be regarded as a specific characteristic of each variety.
Sara Conti, Carla Fornari, Pietro Ferrara, Ippazio C. Antonazzo, Fabiana Madotto, Eugenio Traini, Miriam Levi, Achille Cernigliaro, Benedetta Armocida, Nicola L. Bragazzi,et al.
Frontiers Media SA
Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM2.5- and ozone-related disease.Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990–2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010–2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones.Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.
Luciano Giacò, Fernando Palluzzi, Davide Guido, Camilla Nero, Flavia Giacomini, Simona Duranti, Emilio Bria, Giampaolo Tortora, Tonia Cenci, Maurizio Martini,et al.
MDPI AG
In January 2022, our institution launched a comprehensive cancer genome profiling program on 10 cancer types using a non-IVD solution named the TruSight Oncology 500 Assay provided by Illumina®. The assay analyzes both DNA and RNA, identifying Single-Nucleotide Variants (SNV)s and Insertion–Deletion (InDel) in 523 genes, as well as known and unknown fusions and splicing variants in 55 genes and Copy Number Alterations (CNVs), Mutational Tumor Burden (MTB) and Microsatellite Instability (MSI). According to the current European IVD Directive 98/79/EC, an internal validation was performed before running the test. A dedicated open-source bioinformatics pipeline was developed for data postprocessing, panel assessment and embedding in high-performance computing framework using the container technology to ensure scalability and reproducibility. Our protocols, applied to 71 DNA and 64 RNA samples, showed full agreement between the TruSight Oncology 500 assay and standard approaches, with only minor limitations, allowing to routinely perform our protocol in patient screening.
Emanuele Perrone, Riccardo Tudisco, Pia Clara Pafundi, Davide Guido, Alessandra Ciucci, Enrica Martinelli, Gian Franco Zannoni, Alessia Piermattei, Saveria Spadola, Giulia Ferrante,et al.
MDPI AG
Several studies have explored the prognostic role of hormone receptor status in high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) patients. However, few reports have investigated their expression according to BRCA mutational status. The aim of this single-center, observational, retrospective study was to explore the hormone receptor pattern and its potential prognostic role in a cohort of 207 HGSOC women stratified for BRCA mutational status. To this end, ERα, ERβ1, ERβ2, ERβ5, PR, and AR expression were assessed by immunohistochemistry in 135 BRCA-wild type (BRCA-wt) and 72 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (BRCA-mut). No significant difference emerged in hormone receptor expression between the two sub-samples, except for a significantly lower ERα expression observed in pre-menopausal BRCA1/2-mut as compared to BRCA-wt patients (p = 0.02). None of the examined hormone receptors has revealed a significant prognostic role in the whole sample, apart from the ratio ERα/ERβ5 nuclear, for which higher values disclosed a positive role on the outcome in BRCA-wt subgroup (HR 0.77; CI 0.61–0.96; p = 0.019). Conversely, it negatively affected overall survival in the presence of BRCA1/2-mut (HR 1.41; CI 1.06–1.87; p = 0.020). Finally, higher PR levels were associated with platinum sensitivity in the whole sample (p = 0.019). Our data, though needing further validation, suggest a potential role of oestrogen-mediated pathways in BRCA1/2-associated HGSOC tumorigenesis, thus revealing a possible therapeutic potential for targeting this interaction.
Joseph Jon Frostad, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Mathew M Baumann, Brigette F Blacker, Laurie B Marczak, Aniruddha Deshpande, Kirsten E Wiens, Kate E LeGrand, Kimberly B Johnson, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari,et al.
Elsevier BV
Serena Dotolo, Riziero Esposito Abate, Cristin Roma, Davide Guido, Alessia Preziosi, Beatrice Tropea, Fernando Palluzzi, Luciano Giacò, and Nicola Normanno
MDPI AG
The use of next-generation sequencing (NGS) techniques for variant detection has become increasingly important in clinical research and in clinical practice in oncology. Many cancer patients are currently being treated in clinical practice or in clinical trials with drugs directed against specific genomic alterations. In this scenario, the development of reliable and reproducible bioinformatics tools is essential to derive information on the molecular characteristics of each patient’s tumor from the NGS data. The development of bioinformatics pipelines based on the use of machine learning and statistical methods is even more relevant for the determination of complex biomarkers. In this review, we describe some important technologies, computational algorithms and models that can be applied to NGS data from Whole Genome to Targeted Sequencing, to address the problem of finding complex cancer-associated biomarkers. In addition, we explore the future perspectives and challenges faced by bioinformatics for precision medicine both at a molecular and clinical level, with a focus on an emerging complex biomarker such as homologous recombination deficiency (HRD).
Simone Perna, Cinzia Ferraris, Monica Guglielmetti, Tariq A. Alalwan, Alaa M. Mahdi, Davide Guido, and Anna Tagliabue
MDPI AG
Background: The classic ketogenic diet (cKD) has been used worldwide as an effective therapy for children with drug-resistant epilepsy. However, there have been no studies performed in Middle Eastern countries in order to assess the efficacy, side effects, predictors of cKD response and factors mostly associated with diet adherence. This study aims to assess the efficacy of cKD ratios of 4:1 and 3:1 and their influence on growth and biochemical parameters, particularly lipid profile and liver function tests (LFTs), and the factors most associated with diet adherence in a cohort of children with drug-resistant epilepsy in Bahrain. Methods: Baseline and follow-up data related to patients’ demographic and biochemical variables, epilepsy episodes, diet history and anthropometric measurements were retrieved for a total of 24 children treated with cKD in Bahrain. Results: After 6 months cKD initiation, 58.3% were positive responders with >50% seizure rate reduction, and 33.3% became seizure-free at 12 months. After 6 months of intervention with cKD, the level of triglycerides and albumin had a significant (p < 0.05) average increase over time of +1.47 mmol/L and 4.3 g/L, respectively. Although the median values of total cholesterol and alanine transaminase increased, respectively, following cKD initiation, the difference over time was not statistically significant. The mean z-scores for weight, height, and body mass index (or weight-for-length) did not change significantly at 12 months follow-up. cKD duration was the highest correlated variable with cKD efficacy (r = 0.76), which was followed by age at cKD initiation (r = 0.47). The cKD was discontinued by 14 patients (58.3%) during the first follow-up period (6 months), which was mainly due to inefficacy (n = 8), poor compliance (n = 3), food refusal (n = 1), achieved required efficacy (n = 1) and death (n = 1). Conclusions: cKD is an effective treatment for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy, and positive response to cKD was the main factor that increased adherence to the diet. Although long-term cKD could increase the risk of dyslipidemia and hepatic problems, it appears safe for children. Consequently, close monitoring and emphasis on healthy fats is of high priority.
Carmelo Caldarella, Fabrizio Cocciolillo, Silvia Taralli, Margherita Lorusso, Valentina Scolozzi, Daniele Antonio Pizzuto, Maria Lucia Calcagni, Vittoria Rufini, Davide Guido, Fernando Palluzzi,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
To investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown had an impact on the extent of cancer disease at FDG PET/CT staging as surrogate marker. Retrospective observational study including cancer patients submitted to FDG PET/CT staging from June 1 to October 31, 2020, and June 1 to October 31, 2019, respectively. Data regarding primary tumour, nodal (N) status and number of involved nodal stations, and presence and number of distant metastases (M) were collected. Each scan was classified in limited vs advanced status. Data were aggregated across the study population and tumour type. Bi-weekly frequencies of the observed events were analysed. Six hundred eleven patients were included (240 in 2019 vs 371 in 2020, respectively). A significant increase of advanced disease patients (rate 1.56, P < 0.001), N + or M + patients (rate 1.84 and 2.09, respectively, P < 0.001), and patients with a greater number of involved N stations or M (rate 2.01 and 2.06, respectively, P < 0.001) were found in 2020 compared with data of 2019. Analysis by tumour type showed a significant increase of advanced disease in lymphoma and lung cancer in 2020 compared with 2019 (P < 0.001). In addition, a significant increase of nodal involvement was found in lung, gastro-intestinal, and breast cancers, as well as in lymphoma patients (P < 0.02). A significant increase of distant metastases was found in lung cancers (P = 0.002). Cancer patients with advanced disease at FDG PET/CT staging increased in 2020 compared with 2019, following the national lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 1.5-fold with a significant increase of patients with N or M involvement. Targeted health interventions are needed to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on patient outcome.
Damaris Kinyoki, Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Dan Lu, Samuel B. Ewald, Katie M. Donkers, Ian D. Letourneau, Michael Collison,et al.
Nature Medicine Springer Science and Business Media LLC
AbstractAnemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.
Katherine R Paulson, Aruna M Kamath, Tahiya Alam, Kelly Bienhoff, Gdiom Gebreheat Abady, Jaffar Abbas, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Sherief M Abd-Elsalam,et al.
Elsevier BV
Summary Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
N. V. Bhattacharjee, Lauren E Schaeffer and S. Hay
Nature Human Behaviour
Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, Katherine M. Gass, Kira A. Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Shreya Shirude,et al.
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
Benn Sartorius, John D VanderHeide, Mingyou Yang, Erik A Goosmann, Julia Hon, Emily Haeuser, Michael A Cork, Samantha Perkins, Deepa Jahagirdar, Lauren E Schaeffer,et al.
The Lancet HIV Elsevier BV
Summary Background High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Davide Sattin, Davide Rossi Sebastiano, Francesca Giulia Magnani, Ludovico D'Incerti, Giorgio Marotta, Riccardo Benti, Simone Tirelli, Anna Bersano, Dunja Duran, Elisa Visani,et al.
Elsevier BV
The visual fixation represents a doubtful behavioral sign to discriminate Vegetative from Minimally Conscious State (MCS). To disentangle its meaning, we fitted univariate and multivariable logistic regression models matching different neurophysiological and neuroimaging data of 54 patients with Disorders of Consciousness to select the best model predicting which visual performance (visual blink or pursuit) was shown by patients and the best predictors set. The best models found highlighted the importance of the structural MRI and the visual evoked potentials data in predicting visual pursuit. Then, a qualitative pilot test was made on four patients showing visual fixation revealing that the obtained models correctly predict whether the patients' visual performance could support/correlate to a cognitively mediated behavior. The present pilot models could help clinicians to evaluate if the visual fixation response can support the MCS diagnosis.
Davide Sattin, Davide Rossi Sebastiano, Ludovico D’Incerti, Davide Guido, Giorgio Marotta, Riccardo Benti, Simone Tirelli, Francesca Giulia Magnani, Anna Bersano, Dunja Duran,et al.
Wiley
One of the major challenges for clinicians who treat patients with Disorders of Consciousness (DoCs) concerns the detection of signs of consciousness that distinguish patients in Vegetative State from those in Minimally Conscious State. Recent studies showed how visual responses to tailored stimuli are one of the first evidence revealing that one patient is changing from one state to another. This study aimed to explore the integrity of the neural structures being part of the visual system in patients with DoCs manifesting a reflexive behavior (visual blink) and in those manifesting a cognitively and cortically mediated behavior (visual pursuit). We collected instrumental data using specialized equipment (EEG following the rules of the International 10–20 system, 3T Magnetic Resonance, and Positron Emission Tomography) in 54 DoC patients. Our results indicated that visual pursuit group showed a better fVEPs response than the visual blink group, because of a greater area under the N2/P2 component of fVEPs (AUC could be seen as an indicator of the residual activity of visual areas). Considering neuroimaging data, the main structural differences between groups were found in the retrochiasmatic areas, specifically in the right optic radiation and visual cortex (V1), areas statistically less impaired in patients able to perform a visual pursuit. FDG‐PET analysis confirmed difference between groups at the level of the right calcarine cortex and neighboring right lingual gyrus. In conclusion, although there are methodological and theoretical limitations that should be considered, our study suggests a new perspective to consider for a future diagnostic protocol.
Rossella Murtas, Anita Andreano, Federico Gervasi, Davide Guido, David Consolazio, Sara Tunesi, Laura Andreoni, Maria Teresa Greco, Maria Elena Gattoni, Monica Sandrini,et al.
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Abstract Background COVID-19 epidemic has paralleled with the so called infodemic, where countless pieces of information have been disseminated on putative risk factors for COVID-19. Among those, emerged the notion that people suffering from autoimmune diseases (AIDs) have a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods The cohort included all COVID-19 cases residents in the Agency for Health Protection (AHP) of Milan that, from the beginning of the outbreak, developed a web-based platform that traced positive and negative cases as well as related contacts. AIDs subjects were defined ad having one the following autoimmune disease: rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, Sjogren disease, ankylosing spondylitis, myasthenia gravis, Hashimoto’s disease, acquired autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and psoriatic arthritis. To investigate whether AID subjects are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and whether they have worse prognosis than AIDs-free subjects once infected, we performed a combined analysis of a test-negative design case–control study, a case–control with test-positive as cases, and one with test-negative as cases (CC-NEG). Results During the outbreak, the Milan AHP endured, up to April 27th 2020, 20,364 test-positive and 34,697 test-negative subjects. We found no association between AIDs and being positive to COVID-19, but a statistically significant association between AIDs and being negative to COVID-19 in the CC-NEG. If, as likely, test-negative subjects underwent testing because of respiratory infection symptoms, these results imply that autoimmune diseases may be a risk factor for respiratory infections in general (including COVID-19), but they are not a specific risk factor for COVID-19. Furthermore, when infected by SARS-CoV-2, AIDs subjects did not have a worse prognosis compared to non-AIDs subjects. Results highlighted a potential unbalance in the testing campaign, which may be correlated to the characteristics of the tested person, leading specific frail population to be particularly tested. Conclusions Lack of availability of sound scientific knowledge inevitably lead unreliable news to spread over the population, preventing people to disentangle them form reliable information. Even if additional studies are needed to replicate and strengthen our results, these findings represent initial evidence to derive recommendations based on actual data for subjects with autoimmune diseases.
S. Tunesi, R. Murtas, Antonio Riussi, M. Sandrini, A. Andreano, M. Greco, M. E. Gattoni, D. Guido, F. Gervasi, D. Consolazio,et al.
OBJECTIVES
to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020.
DESIGN
descriptive study of COVID-19 cases.
SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS
a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI.
RESULTS
a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area.
CONCLUSIONS
estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.
M. Sandrini, A. Andreano, R. Murtas, S. Tunesi, Antonio Riussi, D. Guido, M. Greco, M. E. Gattoni, F. Gervasi, D. Consolazio,et al.
OBJECTIVES
to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak.
DESIGN
cohort study.
SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS
using a new information system developed during the pandemic, we gathered data on the number of daily deaths in the population residing in the provinces of Milan and Lodi by Local Health Unit (ASST) and age groups. To describe the case fatality of COVID-19, we performed a record linkage with a database specially constructed during the epidemic to identify deaths that occurred in confirmed cases.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
mortality and excess mortality were analysed by comparing the number of observed deaths in the first 4 months of 2020 with the average deaths of the years 2016-2019 in the same calendar period and with expected deaths, estimated using a Poisson model. Furthermore, a measure of relative risk was calculated as observed/expected ratio with a 95% confidence interval.
RESULTS
the increase in mortality for all causes occurring in the study population in the first 4 months of 2020 was 48.8%, 30.8% for ages between 60 and 69, 43.9% for ages between 70 and 79, and 56.7% for subjects above 80 years of age. Focusing on the epidemic period, from 1 March to 30 April, the excess is quantifiable as more than 2-fold and mainly concerns the population over 60 years of age. The excess mortality was observed in all local health units (ASSTs). The highest increments were in the province of Lodi and the North-East of Milan (ASST Nord). In the ASSTs of Lodi and Melegnano-Martesana the mortality excess was detectable from March 15th, while for the other ASSTs the increase began in the first week of April.
CONCLUSIONS
evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.
Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Paulina A Lindstedt, Mathew M Baumann, Kimberly B Johnson, Brigette F Blacker, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour,et al.
Elsevier BV
Summary Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Kirsten E Wiens, Paulina A Lindstedt, Brigette F Blacker, Kimberly B Johnson, Mathew M Baumann, Lauren E Schaeffer, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour,et al.
The Lancet Global Health Elsevier BV
Summary Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Mariangela Rondanelli, Simone Perna, Tariq A. Alalwan, Roberta Cazzola, Clara Gasparri, Vittoria Infantino, Federica Perdoni, Giancarlo Iannello, Daniele Pepe, and Davide Guido
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Background A study has been performed in overweight and obese subjects to assess the effects of adiposity and inflammation indicators on dysmetabolic biomarkers via red cell distribution width (RDW) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV), taking into account pro-antioxidant balance. Methods Data from 166 overweight subjects were analyzed by a path analysis model using structural equation modelling (SEM) to evaluate the direct and indirect pathway effects of adiposity, measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and inflammation status, measured by pro-antioxidant balance [reactive oxygen species (ROS)], lag-time and slope and C-reactive protein (CRP) values on dysmetabolic biomarkers, via RDW and MCV. Results BMI was strongly linked to CRP and ROS levels. Moreover, there was a significant negative decrease of MCV (1.546 femtoliters) linked to BMI indirectly via high CRP levels. Furthermore, WC affected RDW, indicating a possible mediatory role for RDW in relation to the relationship between WC and homeostatic model assessment (HOMA), insulin and high density lipoprotein (HDL), respectively. This was evident by the elevated HOMA and insulin levels and the decreased levels of HDL. Finally, ROS-related markers did not affect directly RDW and MCV. Conclusion The reported outcomes suggest that RDW might play a mediatory role in the relationship between WC and the dysmetabolic outcomes in overweight and obese individuals. CRP seems to modulate the linkage between BMI and MCV. This study provides the backbone structure for future scenarios and lays the foundation for further research on the role of RDW and MCV as suitable biomarkers for the assessment of cardiovascular disease (HDL-cholesterol), inflammatory bowels and insulin resistance.
Robert C Reiner, Kirsten E Wiens, Aniruddha Deshpande, Mathew M Baumann, Paulina A Lindstedt, Brigette F Blacker, Christopher E Troeger, Lucas Earl, Sandra B Munro, Degu Abate,et al.
The Lancet Elsevier BV
Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.