Economista - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
Economist, Master, and Doctor in Economics from the Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Principal Professor of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Member of the Institute of Economic Research of the UNMSM. He held management positions in the Public Sector: Social Security, Municipalities, and University. He has extensive experience consulting and researching social projects and policies and health economics. In addition, he teaches at the postgraduate level in public and private universities in the country and abroad. He has publications on topics of his specialization and extensive participation in academic events.
Economics at Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
Master in Economics at Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
PhD in Economics from Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
En el Perú las enfermedades prevalentes son ahora las crónicas y degenerativas y además se presentan en un marco de población que va envejeciendo (La mediana de la población es mayor a 37 años); el objetivo del estudio es establecer qué factores socioeconómicos y en qué estrato o grupo de población, se relacionan con la presencia de hipertensión y obesidad
Rafael Bolaños-Díaz, Eddie Angles-Yanqui, Giancarlo Pérez-Lazo, and César Sanabria-Montañez Oxford University Press (OUP)
Abstract Objectives The objective of this study was to analyse the cost-effectiveness (C-E) of ceftazidime/avibactam (CAZ/AVI)-based therapy versus colistin (COL)-based therapy for pneumonia and bacteraemia caused by carbapenem-resistant enterobacteria (CRE) adjusted to Peruvian context. Methods A Markov decision model was extrapolated from literature to evaluate the clinical and economic consequences of CAZ/AVI-based therapy compared to COL-based therapy for a hypothetical cohort of patients with CRE pneumonia or bacteraemia according to Peruvian context. It was adopted a 5-year time horizon and a Markov-cycle length of 1 year. All patients in the model were assigned to CRE pneumonia or bacteraemia state and may transit through four different health states: home-care, long-term care without dialysis, long-term care with dialysis or death. Key findings Intervention with CAZ/AVI becomes progressively more cost-effective from a threshold of S/ 24,000 or US$ 6666 (equivalent to 1 Gross Domestic Product-per cápita [GDP-pc]). The model simulation allowed to calculate an average total cost of S/ 2’971,582 (US$ 825,440) for CAZ/AVI against S/2’056,488 (US$ 571.247) for COL treatment, yielding an incremental cost of S/ 915,094 (US$ 254,193). The cost/QALY for CAZ/AVI treatment against COL therapy approaches to S/23,154 (US$ 6432), something less than 1 annual GDP-pc. There were additional benefits associated with CAZ/AVI in the 5-year horizon, such as: 21 deaths avoided, 86 hospital days avoided, 1 CRF5 avoided and a NMB of S/6649 (US$ 1847). Conclusions The present transferability model demonstrates the C-E of CAZ/AVI over COL for the treatment of bacteraemia and CRE pneumonia according to peruvian payment thresholds.
César Sanabria-Montañez, Jorge Cabrejos Polo, Adriel Raúl Olortegui Yzu, Herminio San Juan Lezama, Manuel Antonio Lama More, and Ricardo Villamonte Blas Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Vicerectorado de Investigacion
Introducción. La enfermedad isquémica del corazón (EIC) es actualmente un problema de salud pública en el Perú, y su tratamiento tiende a ser muy costoso para el sistema de salud. Objetivo. Establecer los patrones de costos de atención de las EIC en el Instituto Nacional Cardiovascular (INCOR) de la Seguridad Social en Salud del Perú (EsSalud). Métodos. Se utilizaron las bases de datos de atenciones, cirugías, egresos y valor bruto de la producción del INCOR de la población diagnosticada y atendida con EIC en el año 2019 (879 pacientes). Se estimaron los costos de las atenciones mediante costeo basado en actividad; se utilizó un modelo econométrico para establecer los determinantes de los costos, y con el método de distancia euclidiana se formaron “clústeres” con características similares para establecer patrones de costos. Resultados. El costo de atención de EIC más alto fue de 148 567 soles (US$ 44 830) para un paciente con 40 días de estancia. Fueron principales determinantes del costo de la atención la estancia hospitalaria y el número de ingresos al establecimiento. Se identificó que los “clúster” que tuvieron un costo mayor, fueron pacientes con edad de 70 y 72 años como mediana, con altos número de días de estancia y con alguna cirugía de alta complejidad. Conclusión. Los patrones de costos de la atención de la EIC estuvieron asociados a la estancia y los reingresos al establecimiento de salud. Los “clústers” con mayor costo estuvieron relacionados a la edad y complejidad de la cirugía.
Rafael Bolaños-Díaz, César Sanabria-Montañez, and Nilton Custodio-Capuñay Oxford University Press (OUP)
Abstract Objective To analyse the cost-effectiveness (C-E) of interferon therapy for MS and the impact of adherence associated with a patient support programme (PSP). Methods Markov model was structured based on systematic review of the evidence and the opinion of local experts. The model has three health states: (1) Baseline treatment (BT), (2) Interferon-β (IFN) with patient support programme (PSP) and (3) IFN without PSP. Annual cycles were considered, with a time horizon of 30 years. The analysis perspective was based on the Ministry of Health (MoH). Key findings Interferon-β + PSP dominates the treatment of IFN without PSP. The incremental C-E rate (ICER) for IFN + PSP was estimated at S/. 26 408 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) in relation to BT. IFN without PSP was dominated by the IFN + PSP treatment. The cost per QALY of IFN + PSP was below the payment threshold in almost 100% of the model simulations. The acceptability curves show that the treatment with PSP + IFN is probabilistically more cost effective from a payment threshold of 1.25 annual Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP-pc). The Tornado analysis for the ICER between IFN + PSP and BT shows that the most sensitive variables of the model are the relative risk (RR) for treatment adherence and the cost of IFN + PSP treatment. Conclusion The addition of a PSP had a significant effect on adherence and C-E of the intervention. The ICER for IFN + PSP was below 1.5 annual GDP-pc of payment threshold with an incremental cost near to 3 GDP-pc. IFN without PSP was dominated by the IFN + PSP.
Rafael Bolaños-Díaz, César Sanabria-Montañez, Carlos Farfán-Tello, and María Calderón-Cahua Oxford University Press (OUP)
To evaluate cost‐effectiveness – from a local perspective – of cetuximab when it is added to conventional chemotherapy for the treatment of metastatic colon cancer.
Pedro Jesús Mendoza-Arana, Germán Rivera-Del Río, César Gutiérrez-Villafuerte, and César Sanabria-Montáñez Pan American Health Organization
Objective To characterize the process of health sector reform (HSR) in Peru (launched publicly in 2013), identifying the principal advances in its implementation and the pending challenges from the perspective of the participating actors. Methods This study systematizes experiences through semi-structured interviews conducted with 21 key informants, including three ex-ministers of health, using the decade 2005-2015 as the time frame. Official databases were analyzed to verify variations in health indicators. Results The proposed reform was based on expanding insurance coverage (predominantly public health insurance), following the structured pluralism model, with clear separation between the functions of delivery, financing, regulation, and governance. The main progress in HSR identified by this study involves: having transcended the poverty criterion for public insurance, strengthening investments in infrastructure and human resources, strengthening the National Health Authority with a focus on the rights of users, and reinforcing the public health role of the Ministry of Health. The main challenges involve providing non-poverty-related insurance coverage for the population, having sufficient specialized human resources, and reducing out-of-pocket expenditure. Conclusions In the 10 years under analysis, HSR is a process that builds on the progress made in prior years; a process that consolidates an insurance model aimed at universal coverage based on public health insurance and that has led to a demonstrable increase in public spending and population coverage. However, progress has been limited mainly due to insufficient provision of specialized human resources and out-of-pocket expenditure, which remains very high.
Rafael Bolaños-Díaz, Romina A. Tejada, César Sanabria, and Seimer Escobedo-Palza Instituto Nacional de Salud (Peru)
Objetives. To compare in terms of cost-effectiveness to entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir (TDF) in the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in public hospitals in Peru. Materials and methods. We structured a Markov model. We define effectiveness adjusted life years for quality (QALY). We include the direct costs of treatment in soles from the perspective of the Ministry of Health of Peru. We estimate the relationship between cost and effectiveness ratios (ICER). We performed sensitivity analyzes considering a range of willingness to pay (WTP) from one to three times the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and a tornado analysis regarding Monetary Net Profit (BMN) or ICER. Results. Treatment with TDF is more effective and less expensive than ETV. The ETV had a cost per QALY of PEN 4482, and PEN 1526 TDF. The PTO maintains a progressively larger with increasing WTP BMN. The discount rate was the only variable with a significant effect on model uncertainty. Conclusion: Treatment with TDF is more cost-effective than ETV in public hospitals in Peru.
Edward Mezones-Holguín, Rafael Bolaños-Díaz, Víctor Fiestas, César Sanabria, Alfonso Gutiérrez-Aguado, Fabián Fiestas, Víctor J Suárez, Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales, and Adrián V Hernández Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
Introduction: Pneumococcal pneumonia (PP) has a high burden of morbimortality in children. Use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) is an effective preventive measure. After PCV 7-valent (PCV7) withdrawal, PCV 10-valent (PCV10) and PCV 13-valent (PCV13) are the alternatives in Peru. This study aimed to evaluate cost effectiveness of these vaccines in preventing PP in Peruvian children <5 years-old. Methodology: A cost-effectiveness analysis was developed in three phases: a systematic evidence search for calculating effectiveness; a cost analysis for vaccine strategies and outcome management; and an economic model based on decision tree analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis using acceptability curves, tornado diagram, and Monte Carlo simulation. A hypothetic 100 vaccinated children/vaccine cohort was built. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. Results: The isolation probability for all serotypes in each vaccine was estimated: 38% for PCV7, 41% PCV10, and 17% PCV13. Avoided hospitalization was found to be the best effectiveness model measure. Estimated costs for PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13 cohorts were USD13,761, 11,895, and 12,499, respectively. Costs per avoided hospitalization were USD718 for PCV7, USD333 for PCV10, andUSD 162 for PCV13. At ICER, PCV7 was dominated by the other PCVs. Eliminating PCV7, PCV13 was more cost effective than PCV10 (confirmed in sensitivity analysis). Conclusions: PCV10 and PCV13 are more cost effective than PCV7 in prevention of pneumonia in children <5 years-old in Peru. PCV13 prevents more hospitalizations and is more cost-effective than PCV10. These results should be considered when making decisions about the Peruvian National Inmunizations Schedule.